{"id":212255,"league_id":49,"league":"J1 League","kickoff":1789812000,"home":"FC Tokyo","away":"Nagoya Grampus","home_id":1936,"away_id":1942,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[1,0],"colors":{"home":"#222a67","away":"#ce111c"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.2,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.81,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Both sides are modelled to score: 2.25 against 1.36, and a match with that much in it rarely stays quiet. Which is why we land on more than 1.5 goals in it. 81% on our numbers, 1.20 on the board. Both are saying the same thing, which is worth knowing and is not an edge.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":1,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.2,"bookmaker":"BetVictor","model_prob":0.805,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.20. The model has FC Tokyo at 2.25 goals here against Nagoya Grampus's 1.36 — that gap is the whole case. Everything above points the same way: FC Tokyo avoiding defeat. 81% likely, returning 20p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":1,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}}]}