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Cards and both-teams-to-score are the reliable reads; total goals are not, since derbies run cagey about as often as they run open.","evidence":{"derby":true},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":13.5}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mariusz Jop has 32 matches in charge at Wisła Kraków, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Mariusz Jop","matches_in_charge":32,"tenure_days":374,"ppm":1.47,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bartosz Grzelak has 51 matches in charge at KS Cracovia, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Bartosz Grzelak","matches_in_charge":51,"tenure_days":414,"ppm":1.1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Wisła Kraków come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.125,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"KS Cracovia come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.055,"defence":0.081,"effective_matches":9.1,"shrunk":0.47},"away":{"attack":-0.074,"defence":0.019,"effective_matches":14.9,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; KS Cracovia work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.7,"shots":17.9,"xg_per_shot":0.085,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.239,"finishing_vs_xg":0.22},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.6,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.111,"corners":6.5,"corners_per_shot":0.428,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.19},"possession_gap":3.1},"strength":0.124,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Wisła Kraków are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.22,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"KS Cracovia are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"175 yellow cards in this referee's last 49 games, where 189 would be usual in this league, and 9 reds.","evidence":{"matches":49,"yellows_per_match":3.57,"reds_per_match":0.184,"league_yellows_per_match":3.86,"league_reds_per_match":0.139,"yellow_ratio":0.93,"red_ratio":1.32},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-1.7}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 1 km for KS Cracovia.","evidence":{"travel_km":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":16.8,"temperature_c":7,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.26360626358820155},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6921,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":211957,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1772,"home_team":"Wisła Kraków","away_team_id":422,"away_team":"KS Cracovia","league_id":25,"league_name":"Ekstraklasa"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":51.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5149,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793991564,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"live_minute":28,"colors":{"home":"#0d5fa2","away":"#c21028"},"venue":{"name":"Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana","city":"Kraków","capacity":33130},"pulled":[],"published":[]}