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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Robert Kolendowicz","matches_in_charge":3,"tenure_days":14,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3.2}]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"John Carver is 6 games into the job at Radomiak Radom, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"John Carver","matches_in_charge":6,"tenure_days":36,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"MKS Korona Kielce come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.760416666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Radomiak Radom come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.760416666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.111,"defence":0.03,"effective_matches":15,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":-0.053,"defence":-0.163,"effective_matches":14.9,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.4,"shots":14,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":6.6,"corners_per_shot":0.474,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.26},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.5,"shots":16.4,"xg_per_shot":0.094,"corners":7,"corners_per_shot":0.426,"finishing_vs_xg":0.11},"possession_gap":0.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"MKS Korona Kielce have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.26,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Radomiak Radom are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"105 yellow cards in this referee's last 27 games, where 104 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds. — though 27 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":27,"yellows_per_match":3.89,"reds_per_match":0.185,"league_yellows_per_match":3.86,"league_reds_per_match":0.139,"yellow_ratio":1.01,"red_ratio":1.33,"sample":27,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 177 km for Radomiak Radom.","evidence":{"travel_km":177},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":9.1,"temperature_c":13,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.26360626358820155},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Korona will struggle to break their poor run despite having a history of success against these visitors. While the home side creates quality opportunities even with limited possession, their recent performances show a downward trend in how they attack and defend. Radomiak enters this game in slightly better form, leaning heavily on the scoring production of Jan Grzesik who has 3 goals in his last 5 games. Without their primary midfield anchor serving a long suspension, the visitors will lack control in the middle. Korona must also reorganize a depleted defense that lacks key leaders. Expect a messy game decided by whether Korona can exploit the travel issues of Radomiak before their own defensive leaks become fatal.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7160,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":211954,"event_date":"2026-11-07T11:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":426,"home_team":"MKS Korona Kielce","away_team_id":433,"away_team":"Radomiak Radom","league_id":25,"league_name":"Ekstraklasa"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":54.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5478,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1794046717,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"live_minute":45,"colors":{"home":"#d2241c","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Exbud Arena","city":"Kielce","capacity":15700},"pulled":[],"published":[]}