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Injury","goal_share":0.053,"importance":0.046,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Maximilian Dietz","role":"MID","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.004,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.489,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.65,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.35,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":22,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":10,"games_left":22,"gap_to_leader":16,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":8},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":26,"games_left":22,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":18,"gap_to_europe":-8},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 3-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mateusz Stolarski is 8 games into the job at Widzew Łódź, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Mateusz Stolarski","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":97,"ppm":1.25,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Michal Gasparik has 33 matches in charge at Górnik Zabrze, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Michal Gasparik","matches_in_charge":33,"tenure_days":203,"ppm":1.85,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Widzew Łódź come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Górnik Zabrze come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.34375,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.101,"defence":0.047,"effective_matches":14.2,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":0.081,"defence":0.218,"effective_matches":14.5,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.1,"shots":14.7,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":7.3,"corners_per_shot":0.495,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.24},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.8,"shots":14,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.393,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.22},"possession_gap":1.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Widzew Łódź are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Górnik Zabrze are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.22,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"82 yellow cards in this referee's last 31 games, where 119 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":31,"yellows_per_match":2.65,"reds_per_match":0.097,"league_yellows_per_match":3.85,"league_reds_per_match":0.134,"yellow_ratio":0.69,"red_ratio":0.72},"strength":0.282,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-7.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 172 km for Górnik Zabrze.","evidence":{"travel_km":172},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":19.7,"temperature_c":5,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23883837522911455},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Top of the table Górnik Zabrze travel well and arrive trending up, having cranked up their creative output over their last four matches compared to what came before. They have out-created opponents in eight of their last nine outings, including five of their previous six away trips, while Widzew Łódź have found themselves out-created in most of their recent fixtures. Yet the league leaders have failed to turn those superior chances into wins in three of their last nine attempts, proving their actual results lag behind their performances. Meanwhile, despite missing a defensive presence at the back, Widzew Łódź have only tasted defeat once in their last six. This is where it is decided because Górnik Zabrze produce the better opportunities almost every week, and that relentless chance creation will break through here.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5568,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":211938,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":423,"home_team":"Widzew Łódź","away_team_id":429,"away_team":"Górnik Zabrze","league_id":25,"league_name":"Ekstraklasa"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":39,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3897,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792759837,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ec1c19","away":"#0d51a1"},"venue":{"name":"Stadion Widzewa Łódź","city":"Lodz","capacity":18018},"pulled":[],"published":[]}