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Injury","goal_share":0.091,"importance":0.065,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.405,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed. Hibernian have made three changes from the side expected, with Jack Iredale, Grant Hanley and Ante Šuto out of the eleven. Celtic have made three changes from the side expected, with Viljami Sinisalo, Sebastian Tounekti and Haissem Hassan out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":3,"out":["Jack Iredale","Grant Hanley","Ante Šuto"],"in":["Marko Ivezić","Owen Elding","Thibault Klidjé"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Viljami Sinisalo","Sebastian Tounekti","Haissem Hassan"],"in":["Sam Johnstone","Callum Osmand","Kasper Høgh"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":12,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":12,"points":7,"games_left":12,"gap_to_leader":17,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":8},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":24,"games_left":12,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":16,"gap_to_europe":-9},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Marink Reedijk is 8 games into the job at Hibernian, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Marink Reedijk","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":78,"ppm":0.88,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Martin O'Neill has 25 matches in charge at Celtic, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Martin O'Neill","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":2.04,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":2.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hibernian come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.916666666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.049,"defence":0.04,"effective_matches":13.6,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":0.392,"defence":0.229,"effective_matches":13.7,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Celtic work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.7,"shots":15.9,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.351,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.52},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":56.7,"shots":16.3,"xg_per_shot":0.115,"corners":8.1,"corners_per_shot":0.495,"finishing_vs_xg":0.11},"possession_gap":-5},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hibernian have scored 6 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.52,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celtic are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 66 km for Celtic.","evidence":{"travel_km":66},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2552148380444071},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"League leaders Celtic will outclass basement side Hibernian despite both teams struggling for form. The hosts generate volume without threat, hitting the target merely 23 times from 96 attempts over their last six fixtures. While Hibs dropped five of those six matches, Celtic lost four of their own six. Missing key defensive regulars leaves Hibs vulnerable, while losing a big chunk of their goals ruins their punch upfront. Marink Reedijk has failed to beat Celtic in three tries, so control belongs entirely to the visitors. The deciding factor is Benjamin Nygren. Celtic's top scorer has four goals in five games for club and country, and his sharp finishing will settle it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5728,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:32Z","event":{"id":211161,"event_date":"2026-10-25T12:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":229,"home_team":"Hibernian","away_team_id":132,"away_team":"Celtic","league_id":13,"league_name":"Scottish Premiership"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":59.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5959,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792926934,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0a7640","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Easter Road","city":"Edinburgh","capacity":20421},"pulled":[],"published":[]}