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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Derek McInnes","matches_in_charge":3,"tenure_days":224,"ppm":3,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.1,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3.2}]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neil McCann has 16 matches in charge at Kilmarnock, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Neil McCann","matches_in_charge":16,"tenure_days":190,"ppm":1.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rangers come in on 20 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":20.125,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":20.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kilmarnock come in on 21 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":20.885416666666668,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":20.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.245,"defence":0.169,"effective_matches":13.2,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":-0.071,"defence":-0.194,"effective_matches":13.1,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rangers average 9 points more possession than Kilmarnock, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.4,"shots":18.2,"xg_per_shot":0.106,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.338,"finishing_vs_xg":-1.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":43.8,"shots":11.2,"xg_per_shot":0.116,"corners":4.5,"corners_per_shot":0.402,"finishing_vs_xg":0.62},"possession_gap":8.6},"strength":0.345,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.8}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rangers have scored 12 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-1.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kilmarnock have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.62,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1320170191154258},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Rangers. Rangers have created the better chances in six of their last eight games. On top of that, they have scored only 8 in their last eight from chances that would usually bring about 16. The goals are coming. Meanwhile, Kilmarnock have been out-created in five of their last eight games. This is where it is decided: Rangers make the better chances almost every week, and Kilmarnock have been out-created in most of their recent games.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4497,"created_at":"2026-10-04T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":211152,"event_date":"2026-10-10T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":145,"home_team":"Rangers","away_team_id":223,"away_team":"Kilmarnock","league_id":13,"league_name":"Scottish Premiership"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":82.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.8265,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791486567,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0d399b","away":"#a76833"},"venue":{"name":"Ibrox","city":"Glasgow","capacity":50817},"pulled":[],"published":[]}