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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"FC Utrecht have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.32,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Willem II Tilburg have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.63,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"71 yellow cards in this referee's last 22 games, where 63 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds. — though 22 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":22,"yellows_per_match":3.23,"reds_per_match":0.091,"league_yellows_per_match":2.88,"league_reds_per_match":0.107,"yellow_ratio":1.12,"red_ratio":0.85,"sample":22,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 60 km for Willem II Tilburg.","evidence":{"travel_km":60},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.9,"temperature_c":12,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.07649631082183055},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. FC Utrecht have faced six or more efforts on target in four of their last six games. They are getting opened up. On top of that, they have conceded 24 in their last seven from chances that would usually cost about 15. They have been punished for very little. Meanwhile, Willem II Tilburg have been out-created in five of their last seven games. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4773,"created_at":"2026-10-05T02:15:29Z","event":{"id":210867,"event_date":"2026-10-11T10:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":142,"home_team":"FC Utrecht","away_team_id":2053,"away_team":"Willem II Tilburg","league_id":10,"league_name":"Eredivisie"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":62.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6256,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210867,"event_date":"2026-10-11T10:15:00Z","home_team":"FC Utrecht","away_team":"Willem II Tilburg","polymarket_event_id":"1096316","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":1683.813154,"volume_1wk":2171.1492439999997,"volume_1mo":2207.91395,"volume_1yr":2207.91395,"open_interest":2797.3939479999995,"liquidity_clob":51548.9265,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.63,"best_ask":0.64,"change_1d":-0.005,"change_1wk":-0.02,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.16,"FC Utrecht 0 - 0 Willem II Tilburg":0.035,"FC Utrecht 0 - 1 Willem II Tilburg":0.034,"FC Utrecht 0 - 2 Willem II Tilburg":0.019,"FC Utrecht 0 - 3 Willem II Tilburg":0.008,"FC Utrecht 0 - 4 Willem II Tilburg":0.089,"FC Utrecht 0 - 5 Willem II Tilburg":0.1,"FC Utrecht 1 - 0 Willem II Tilburg":0.08,"FC Utrecht 1 - 1 Willem II Tilburg":0.09,"FC Utrecht 1 - 2 Willem II Tilburg":0.0465,"FC Utrecht 1 - 3 Willem II Tilburg":0.016,"FC Utrecht 1 - 4 Willem II Tilburg":0.0145,"FC Utrecht 1 - 5 Willem II Tilburg":0.085,"FC Utrecht 2 - 0 Willem II Tilburg":0.085,"FC Utrecht 2 - 1 Willem II Tilburg":0.105,"FC Utrecht 2 - 2 Willem II Tilburg":0.059,"FC Utrecht 2 - 3 Willem II Tilburg":0.019,"FC Utrecht 2 - 4 Willem II Tilburg":0.022,"FC Utrecht 2 - 5 Willem II Tilburg":0.0445,"FC Utrecht 3 - 0 Willem II Tilburg":0.065,"FC Utrecht 3 - 1 Willem II Tilburg":0.07,"FC Utrecht 3 - 2 Willem II Tilburg":0.0435,"FC Utrecht 3 - 3 Willem II Tilburg":0.016,"FC Utrecht 3 - 4 Willem II Tilburg":0.1265,"FC Utrecht 3 - 5 Willem II Tilburg":0.21,"FC Utrecht 4 - 0 Willem II Tilburg":0.025,"FC Utrecht 4 - 1 Willem II Tilburg":0.03,"FC Utrecht 4 - 2 Willem II Tilburg":0.022,"FC Utrecht 4 - 3 Willem II Tilburg":0.18,"FC Utrecht 4 - 4 Willem II Tilburg":0.014,"FC Utrecht 4 - 5 Willem II Tilburg":0.215,"FC Utrecht 5 - 0 Willem II Tilburg":0.0135,"FC Utrecht 5 - 1 Willem II Tilburg":0.015,"FC Utrecht 5 - 2 Willem II Tilburg":0.032,"FC Utrecht 5 - 3 Willem II Tilburg":0.12,"FC Utrecht 5 - 4 Willem II Tilburg":0.21,"FC Utrecht 5 - 5 Willem II Tilburg":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-10-11T05:57:09Z"}},"computed_at":1791699934,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed263a","away":"#cd9a23"},"venue":{"name":"Stadion Galgenwaard","city":"Utrecht","capacity":23750},"pulled":[],"published":[]}