{"id":210865,"league_id":10,"league":"Eredivisie","kickoff":1791658800,"home":"AFC Ajax","away":"NEC Nijmegen","home_id":122,"away_id":171,"venue_id":120,"rank":3,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.649,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[2.05,1.44],"read":{"text":"AFC Ajax to win, with goals","side":"home"},"pass":"No call on AFC Ajax against NEC Nijmegen. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"AFC Ajax have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 3.7 and conceding 1.7, and 1.75 a game at home."}],"lambda_home":2.0476073786352837,"lambda_away":1.4375624597504626,"corner_rate":9.46,"card_rate":0.096,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.714,"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":5176,"name":"Marc-André Ter Stegen","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.744},{"id":2226,"name":"Caio Henrique","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.667},{"id":3768,"name":"Youri Baas","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.78},{"id":5177,"name":"Aaron Bouwman","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.706},{"id":3784,"name":"Anton Gaaei","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.629},{"id":2164,"name":"Julian Brandt","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.734},{"id":3776,"name":"Jorthy Mokio","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.658},{"id":3772,"name":"Davy Klaassen","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.638},{"id":3787,"name":"Oliver Valaker Edvardsen","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.301},{"id":535,"name":"Tolu Arokodare","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.522},{"id":4604,"name":"Steven Berghuis","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.639},{"id":3777,"name":"Oscar Gloukh","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.653},{"id":3783,"name":"Lucas Rosa","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.491},{"id":2224,"name":"Thilo Kehrer","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.452},{"id":8576,"name":"Abdellah Ouazane","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.447},{"id":3769,"name":"Owen Wijndal","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.423},{"id":9339,"name":"Maarten Paes","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.339},{"id":1043,"name":"Viktor Tsygankov","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.299},{"id":2985,"name":"Sofyan Amrabat","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.291},{"id":5386,"name":"Dies Janse","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.275},{"id":8002,"name":"Marcos Leonardo","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":756,"name":"Jofre Torrents ","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.217},{"id":4110,"name":"Daley Blind","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.214}],"confidence":0.777},"away":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":12753,"name":"Nikolas Polster","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.519},{"id":4716,"name":"Almugera Kabar","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.353},{"id":28367,"name":"Tobias Storm","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.857},{"id":8968,"name":"Bram Nuytinck","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.368},{"id":58036,"name":"Dušan Tadić","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.772},{"id":12055,"name":"Dennis Geiger","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":5548,"name":"Noé Lebreton","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.739},{"id":5453,"name":"Darko Nejašmić","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.717},{"id":37024,"name":"Ayodele Thomas","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.408},{"id":5457,"name":"Bryan Linssen","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.702},{"id":5456,"name":"Tjaronn Chery","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.751},{"id":3042,"name":"Clement Bischoff","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.654},{"id":5448,"name":"Gonzalo Crettaz","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.504},{"id":29788,"name":"Adam Tahaui","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.437},{"id":5331,"name":"Jamiro Monteiro","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.38},{"id":4405,"name":"Gabriel Brás","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.358},{"id":65925,"name":"Perr Schuurs","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.344},{"id":5354,"name":"Kaj Sierhuis","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.319},{"id":8734,"name":"Kevin Kers","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.313},{"id":5450,"name":"Philippe Sandler","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.303},{"id":6094,"name":"Willum Thor Willumsson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.273},{"id":4469,"name":"Isak Hansen Aarøen","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.253},{"id":65926,"name":"Joep Geneste","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03}],"confidence":0.714},"unavailable":[{"id":3779,"name":"Kasper Dolberg","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":5451,"name":"Deveron Fonville","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Ankle Injury"},{"id":36063,"name":"Emre Mor","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Groin Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":5176,"name":"Marc-André Ter Stegen","side":"home"},{"id":2226,"name":"Caio Henrique","side":"home"},{"id":3768,"name":"Youri Baas","side":"home"},{"id":5177,"name":"Aaron Bouwman","side":"home"},{"id":3784,"name":"Anton Gaaei","side":"home"},{"id":2164,"name":"Julian Brandt","side":"home"},{"id":3776,"name":"Jorthy Mokio","side":"home"},{"id":3772,"name":"Davy Klaassen","side":"home"},{"id":3787,"name":"Oliver Valaker Edvardsen","side":"home"},{"id":535,"name":"Tolu Arokodare","side":"home"},{"id":4604,"name":"Steven Berghuis","side":"home"},{"id":3777,"name":"Oscar Gloukh","side":"home"},{"id":3783,"name":"Lucas Rosa","side":"home"},{"id":2224,"name":"Thilo Kehrer","side":"home"},{"id":8576,"name":"Abdellah Ouazane","side":"home"},{"id":3769,"name":"Owen Wijndal","side":"home"},{"id":9339,"name":"Maarten Paes","side":"home"},{"id":1043,"name":"Viktor Tsygankov","side":"home"},{"id":2985,"name":"Sofyan Amrabat","side":"home"},{"id":5386,"name":"Dies Janse","side":"home"},{"id":8002,"name":"Marcos Leonardo","side":"home"},{"id":756,"name":"Jofre Torrents","side":"home"},{"id":4110,"name":"Daley Blind","side":"home"},{"id":5277,"name":"Jinairo Johnson","side":"home"},{"id":3779,"name":"Kasper Dolberg","side":"home"},{"id":5536,"name":"Pharrel Nash","side":"home"},{"id":3771,"name":"Rayane Bounida","side":"home"},{"id":3782,"name":"Joeri Heerkens","side":"home"},{"id":28500,"name":"Charlie Setford","side":"home"},{"id":358,"name":"Simon Adingra","side":"home"},{"id":2582,"name":"Abdoulaye Camara","side":"home"},{"id":8590,"name":"Yves Bissouma","side":"home"},{"id":13586,"name":"Mohamed Abdalla","side":"home"},{"id":12753,"name":"Nikolas Polster","side":"away"},{"id":4716,"name":"Almugera Kabar","side":"away"},{"id":28367,"name":"Tobias Storm","side":"away"},{"id":8968,"name":"Bram Nuytinck","side":"away"},{"id":58036,"name":"Dušan Tadić","side":"away"},{"id":12055,"name":"Dennis Geiger","side":"away"},{"id":5548,"name":"Noé Lebreton","side":"away"},{"id":5453,"name":"Darko Nejašmić","side":"away"},{"id":37024,"name":"Ayodele Thomas","side":"away"},{"id":5457,"name":"Bryan Linssen","side":"away"},{"id":5456,"name":"Tjaronn Chery","side":"away"},{"id":3042,"name":"Clement Bischoff","side":"away"},{"id":5448,"name":"Gonzalo Crettaz","side":"away"},{"id":29788,"name":"Adam Tahaui","side":"away"},{"id":5331,"name":"Jamiro Monteiro","side":"away"},{"id":4405,"name":"Gabriel Brás","side":"away"},{"id":65925,"name":"Perr Schuurs","side":"away"},{"id":5354,"name":"Kaj Sierhuis","side":"away"},{"id":8734,"name":"Kevin Kers","side":"away"},{"id":5450,"name":"Philippe Sandler","side":"away"},{"id":6094,"name":"Willum Thor Willumsson","side":"away"},{"id":4469,"name":"Isak Hansen Aarøen","side":"away"},{"id":65926,"name":"Joep Geneste","side":"away"},{"id":5473,"name":"Ahmetcan Kaplan","side":"away"},{"id":5451,"name":"Deveron Fonville","side":"away"},{"id":95039,"name":"Jahlani Fonteni","side":"away"},{"id":209351,"name":"Douwe Vernooij","side":"away"},{"id":5632,"name":"Yassin Moslih","side":"away"},{"id":5602,"name":"Freek Entius","side":"away"},{"id":36063,"name":"Emre Mor","side":"away"},{"id":5466,"name":"Sam de Laat","side":"away"},{"id":5476,"name":"Merijn van de Wiel","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":3779,"name":"Kasper Dolberg","side":"home","team":"AFC Ajax","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":6,"goals":3,"assists":3,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":3,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Willem II Tilburg","kickoff":1789495200,"goals":1,"assists":2,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["in_form"],"importance":0.09,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2164,"name":"Julian Brandt","side":"home","team":"AFC Ajax","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":7,"goals":6,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":3,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Willem II Tilburg","kickoff":1789495200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.143,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":4604,"name":"Steven Berghuis","side":"home","team":"AFC Ajax","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":17,"starts":10,"goals":2,"assists":5,"big_chances":5,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":17,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"SC Telstar","kickoff":1788101100,"goals":1,"assists":2,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator"],"importance":0.139,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":5451,"name":"Deveron Fonville","side":"away","team":"NEC Nijmegen","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Ankle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-10","season":{"apps":7,"starts":6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.03,"country":{"team":"Curaçao","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782417600},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":36063,"name":"Emre Mor","side":"away","team":"NEC Nijmegen","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Groin Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-20","season":{"apps":7,"starts":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Olympiacos FC","kickoff":1786469400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.035,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":5456,"name":"Tjaronn Chery","side":"away","team":"NEC Nijmegen","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":10,"goals":3,"assists":2,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"PEC Zwolle","kickoff":1788030000,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.161,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":58036,"name":"Dušan Tadić","side":"away","team":"NEC Nijmegen","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":10,"goals":0,"assists":4,"big_chances":5,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":19,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":4},"standout":{"opponent":"Olympiacos FC","kickoff":1786469400,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["chance_creator"],"importance":0.102,"country":{"team":"Serbia","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":1,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":1}},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":178,"country":3}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":3368,"name":"Anis Hadj Moussa","goals":5,"rank":1},{"id":8899,"name":"Artem Stepanov","goals":5,"rank":2},{"id":3000,"name":"Gjivai Zechiël","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":5629,"name":"Søren Tengstedt","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":5393,"name":"Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":3512,"name":"Guus Til","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":2164,"name":"Julian Brandt","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":3367,"name":"Luciano Valente","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":5438,"name":"Milan Zonneveld","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":5206,"name":"Rafik El Arguioui","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":5488,"name":"Ro-Zangelo Daal","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":5485,"name":"Sven Mijnans","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":5391,"name":"Thom van Bergen","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":3775,"name":"Wout Weghorst","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":3369,"name":"Ayase Ueda","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 8","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":58,"home_wins":40,"draws":14,"away_wins":4,"home_goals":152,"away_goals":40,"avg_total_goals":3.310344827586207,"home_win_rate":0.6896551724137931,"away_win_rate":0.06896551724137931,"recent_matches":[{"away":"NEC Nijmegen","date":"2026-02-21T20:00:00+00:00","home":"AFC Ajax","score":"1-1","event_id":2960,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":171,"home_team_id":122},{"away":"AFC Ajax","date":"2025-12-20T19:00:00+00:00","home":"NEC Nijmegen","score":"2-2","event_id":2899,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":122,"home_team_id":171},{"away":"NEC Nijmegen","date":"2025-05-11T14:45:00+00:00","home":"AFC Ajax","score":"0-3","event_id":305316,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":171,"home_team_id":122},{"away":"AFC Ajax","date":"2024-12-01T15:45:00+00:00","home":"NEC Nijmegen","score":"1-2","event_id":305153,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":122,"home_team_id":171},{"away":"NEC Nijmegen","date":"2024-02-18T13:30:00+00:00","home":"AFC Ajax","score":"2-2","event_id":310686,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":171,"home_team_id":122},{"away":"AFC Ajax","date":"2023-12-03T13:30:00+00:00","home":"NEC Nijmegen","score":"1-2","event_id":310615,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":122,"home_team_id":171},{"away":"NEC Nijmegen","date":"2023-03-05T15:45:00+00:00","home":"AFC Ajax","score":"1-0","event_id":315720,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":171,"home_team_id":122},{"away":"AFC Ajax","date":"2023-01-08T13:30:00+00:00","home":"NEC Nijmegen","score":"1-1","event_id":315637,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":122,"home_team_id":171},{"away":"AFC Ajax","date":"2022-04-23T14:30:00+00:00","home":"NEC Nijmegen","score":"0-1","event_id":319527,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":122,"home_team_id":171},{"away":"NEC Nijmegen","date":"2021-08-14T19:00:00+00:00","home":"AFC Ajax","score":"5-0","event_id":319266,"away_score":0,"home_score":5,"away_team_id":171,"home_team_id":122}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":122,"position":5,"played":7,"points":14,"goal_diff":12,"team_name":"AFC Ajax","won":4,"drawn":2,"lost":1,"goals_for":21,"goals_against":9,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":171,"position":11,"played":7,"points":8,"goal_diff":-1,"team_name":"NEC Nijmegen","won":2,"drawn":2,"lost":3,"goals_for":12,"goals_against":13,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.17,"record":"4-1-1","goals_for":3.67,"goals_against":1.67,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"WWLWWD","venue_ppg":1.75},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":1.17,"goals_against":2.5,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"winless 5","sequence":"WLDLLD","venue_ppg":1}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax are without 1 player, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":1,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.1,"combined_importance":0.09,"players":[{"player":"Kasper Dolberg","role":"ATT","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0.1,"importance":0.09,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7,"tags":["in_form"]}]},"strength":0.225,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.5}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"NEC Nijmegen are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.065,"players":[{"player":"Emre Mor","role":"MID","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.035,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Deveron Fonville","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.03,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.163,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.714,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.286,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":26,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":14,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":-1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":8,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Michel is 10 games into the job at AFC Ajax, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Michel","matches_in_charge":10,"tenure_days":63,"ppm":2.1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.3,"after_ppm":2.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Dick Schreuder has 25 matches in charge at NEC Nijmegen, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Dick Schreuder","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":190,"ppm":1.12,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"THIN","note":"AFC Ajax have no prior fixture on record in the window, so days of rest cannot be computed.","evidence":{"daysRest":null,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"NEC Nijmegen come in on 20 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":20.177083333333332,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":20.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.194,"defence":0.153,"effective_matches":13.3,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":0.07,"defence":-0.012,"effective_matches":12.5,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax average 9 points more possession than NEC Nijmegen, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":64.5,"shots":24.5,"xg_per_shot":0.124,"corners":8.4,"corners_per_shot":0.344,"finishing_vs_xg":0.12},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.8,"shots":14.3,"xg_per_shot":0.102,"corners":4.2,"corners_per_shot":0.291,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.29},"possession_gap":8.8},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.8}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AFC Ajax are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"NEC Nijmegen have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"183 yellow cards in this referee's last 50 games, where 143 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds.","evidence":{"matches":50,"yellows_per_match":3.66,"reds_per_match":0.1,"league_yellows_per_match":2.87,"league_reds_per_match":0.107,"yellow_ratio":1.28,"red_ratio":0.93},"strength":0.249,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":6.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":17.3,"temperature_c":14,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.06812828707986246},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4438,"created_at":"2026-10-04T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":210865,"event_date":"2026-10-10T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":122,"home_team":"AFC Ajax","away_team_id":171,"away_team":"NEC Nijmegen","league_id":10,"league_name":"Eredivisie"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":72.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7231,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210865,"event_date":"2026-10-10T19:00:00Z","home_team":"AFC Ajax","away_team":"NEC Nijmegen","polymarket_event_id":"1096334","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":4.559562,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.12,"AFC Ajax 0 - 0 NEC":0.0305,"AFC Ajax 0 - 1 NEC":0.0315,"AFC Ajax 0 - 2 NEC":0.0245,"AFC Ajax 0 - 3 NEC":0.0495,"AFC Ajax 0 - 4 NEC":0.3705,"AFC Ajax 0 - 5 NEC":0.365,"AFC Ajax 1 - 0 NEC":0.065,"AFC Ajax 1 - 1 NEC":0.06,"AFC Ajax 1 - 2 NEC":0.045,"AFC Ajax 1 - 3 NEC":0.0245,"AFC Ajax 1 - 4 NEC":0.3705,"AFC Ajax 1 - 5 NEC":0.375,"AFC Ajax 2 - 0 NEC":0.09,"AFC Ajax 2 - 1 NEC":0.09,"AFC Ajax 2 - 2 NEC":0.0535,"AFC Ajax 2 - 3 NEC":0.0195,"AFC Ajax 2 - 4 NEC":0.0495,"AFC Ajax 2 - 5 NEC":0.045,"AFC Ajax 3 - 0 NEC":0.07,"AFC Ajax 3 - 1 NEC":0.07,"AFC Ajax 3 - 2 NEC":0.0335,"AFC Ajax 3 - 3 NEC":0.0195,"AFC Ajax 3 - 4 NEC":0.3715,"AFC Ajax 3 - 5 NEC":0.36,"AFC Ajax 4 - 0 NEC":0.035,"AFC Ajax 4 - 1 NEC":0.035,"AFC Ajax 4 - 2 NEC":0.0275,"AFC Ajax 4 - 3 NEC":0.0245,"AFC Ajax 4 - 4 NEC":0.02,"AFC Ajax 4 - 5 NEC":0.375,"AFC Ajax 5 - 0 NEC":0.035,"AFC Ajax 5 - 1 NEC":0.035,"AFC Ajax 5 - 2 NEC":0.03,"AFC Ajax 5 - 3 NEC":0.365,"AFC Ajax 5 - 4 NEC":0.375,"AFC Ajax 5 - 5 NEC":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-10-08T08:27:08Z"}},"computed_at":1791448510,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#ec1a1a"},"venue":{"name":"Johan Cruijff Arena","city":"Amsterdam","capacity":55865},"pulled":[],"published":[]}