{"id":210858,"league_id":10,"league":"Eredivisie","kickoff":1789899300,"home":"Feyenoord","away":"FC Utrecht","home_id":138,"away_id":142,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[5,0],"colors":{"home":"#ea1313","away":"#ed263a"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.874,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.10. 2.17 expected for Feyenoord, 1.21 for FC Utrecht — neither side projects to run away with it, and the total is what matters here. Everything above points the same way: more than 1.5 goals in it. That puts it at 87%, priced 1.10 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":4,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.11,"bookmaker":"Betano","model_prob":0.87396937573616,"narrative":"Home draw-no-bet at 1.11. For this to go wrong, FC Utrecht have to beat an expected 1.21 goals by some distance — which is the risk, stated plainly. Add it up and Feyenoord coming out on top if there is a winner is what this points to. 87% likely, returning 11p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":5,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"betfair","model_prob":0.848,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.13. Both sides are modelled to score: 2.18 against 1.21, and a match with that much in it rarely stays quiet. Add it up and a winner rather than a draw is what this points to. We make it 85% at 1.13. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":5,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":5,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}