{"id":210856,"league_id":10,"league":"Eredivisie","kickoff":1789840800,"home":"AFC Ajax","away":"Excelsior","home_id":122,"away_id":172,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[2,2],"colors":{"home":null,"away":null},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.88,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.10. 2.27 and 1.22 makes 3.49 between them — enough traffic that the goals market is the clearer read here. Alongside it, Excelsior will spend this match without the ball — AFC Ajax hold 18 points more of it than they do. Put together, the expectation is more than 1.5 goals in it. 88% likely, returning 10p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":3,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"William Hill","model_prob":0.86986986986987,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.10. 2.27 expected for AFC Ajax, 1.22 for Excelsior — neither side projects to run away with it, and the total is what matters here. In the same direction, AFC Ajax average 18 points more possession than Excelsior, so expect one side with the ball and one chasing it. Everything above points the same way: a winner rather than a draw. That puts it at 87%, priced 1.10 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":1,"closeness":"knife-edge","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":4,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"One goal away from settling the other way."}}]}