{"id":210825,"league_id":10,"league":"Eredivisie","kickoff":1789495200,"home":"AFC Ajax","away":"Willem II Tilburg","home_id":122,"away_id":2053,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[5,1],"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#cd9a23"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"1X","line":null,"odds":1.04,"bookmaker":"888Sport","model_prob":0.941,"narrative":"Double chance 1X at 1.04. The model has AFC Ajax at 2.61 goals here against Willem II Tilburg's 1.01 — that gap is the whole case. Alongside it, Willem II Tilburg need this: fighting relegation with 31 to play. And AFC Ajax average 21 points more possession than Willem II Tilburg, so expect one side with the ball and one chasing it. It is not a clean case: 2 matches in a fortnight has left AFC Ajax running on reserves, and pressing is the first thing to go. We make it 94% at 1.04. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":5,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":6,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"12","line":null,"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"888Sport","model_prob":0.902,"narrative":"Double chance 12 at 1.10. The model reads this as a 3.62-goal match, and the call follows from that number rather than from either side. Pulling the same way, Willem II Tilburg will spend this match without the ball — AFC Ajax hold 21 points more of it than they do. Which is why we land on a winner rather than a draw. We make it 90% at 1.10. Short, and short for a reason — the market has this one read the same way we do.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":4,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":6,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.08,"bookmaker":"10bet","model_prob":0.895,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.08. Both sides are modelled to score: 2.61 against 1.01, and a match with that much in it rarely stays quiet. Compounding it, the table puts Willem II Tilburg fighting relegation, which is the strongest single influence on how cautious this becomes. Pulling the same way, the shape of this is lopsided: 62% possession for AFC Ajax against a side that does not want it. The reservation, and it is a real one: aFC Ajax have had only 3.0 days since their last match. That puts it at 90%, priced 1.08 — a high-probability call rather than a claim the market is wrong.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":5,"closeness":"nowhere near","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":6,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"Never in doubt, whatever the price said beforehand."}}]}