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areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.8,"shots":12.9,"xg_per_shot":0.138,"corners":3.9,"corners_per_shot":0.304,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.61},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.2,"shots":13.7,"xg_per_shot":0.095,"corners":2.8,"corners_per_shot":0.201,"finishing_vs_xg":0.36},"possession_gap":3.6},"strength":0.143,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Toulouse have scored 7 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.61,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Strasbourg have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.36,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"110 yellow cards in this referee's last 27 games, where 97 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds. — though 27 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":27,"yellows_per_match":4.07,"reds_per_match":0.259,"league_yellows_per_match":3.6,"league_reds_per_match":0.187,"yellow_ratio":1.13,"red_ratio":1.39,"sample":27,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 739 km for RC Strasbourg.","evidence":{"travel_km":739},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.6,"temperature_c":11,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23390128511313207},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Toulouse should win comfortably because the visitors rarely generate enough danger on their travels. While they sit 13th in the table, Strasbourg are lucky their position is not worse. Opponents have fashioned better openings in seven of their last ten matches. This pattern is even more obvious when they leave home, as they have surrendered the superior opportunities in five of their last six away trips. Without Aron Dønnum to drive them forward from midfield, the hosts lose a creative link who has already contributed a goal and an assist. However, the hosts become far more effective on their own turf. Casper Tengstedt is in lethal form with four goals in his last five games. His clinical finishing will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6915,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":210526,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":104,"home_team":"Toulouse","away_team_id":112,"away_team":"RC Strasbourg","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":45.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4577,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210526,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:45:00Z","home_team":"Toulouse","away_team":"RC Strasbourg","polymarket_event_id":"1279812","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":25336.4527,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.46,"best_ask":0.47,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.005,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.13,"Toulouse FC 0 - 0 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0475,"Toulouse FC 0 - 1 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.055,"Toulouse FC 0 - 2 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0385,"Toulouse FC 0 - 3 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0175,"Toulouse FC 0 - 4 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.007,"Toulouse FC 0 - 5 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.205,"Toulouse FC 1 - 0 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.075,"Toulouse FC 1 - 1 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.115,"Toulouse FC 1 - 2 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.07,"Toulouse FC 1 - 3 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.031,"Toulouse FC 1 - 4 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0135,"Toulouse FC 1 - 5 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.147,"Toulouse FC 2 - 0 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.065,"Toulouse FC 2 - 1 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.095,"Toulouse FC 2 - 2 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.07,"Toulouse FC 2 - 3 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.029,"Toulouse FC 2 - 4 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0125,"Toulouse FC 2 - 5 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.055,"Toulouse FC 3 - 0 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.04,"Toulouse FC 3 - 1 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0535,"Toulouse FC 3 - 2 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0375,"Toulouse FC 3 - 3 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0185,"Toulouse FC 3 - 4 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0295,"Toulouse FC 3 - 5 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.135,"Toulouse FC 4 - 0 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.01,"Toulouse FC 4 - 1 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.018,"Toulouse FC 4 - 2 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0135,"Toulouse FC 4 - 3 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0095,"Toulouse FC 4 - 4 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0345,"Toulouse FC 4 - 5 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.145,"Toulouse FC 5 - 0 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.0095,"Toulouse FC 5 - 1 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.03,"Toulouse FC 5 - 2 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.03,"Toulouse FC 5 - 3 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.15,"Toulouse FC 5 - 4 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.1465,"Toulouse FC 5 - 5 RC Strasbourg Alsace":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T08:57:15Z"}},"computed_at":1793887555,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#1198ce"},"venue":{"name":"Stadium de Toulouse","city":"Toulouse","capacity":33150},"pulled":[],"published":[]}