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motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Julien Lachuer has 16 matches in charge at Stade Brestois, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Julien Lachuer","matches_in_charge":16,"tenure_days":114,"ppm":1.19,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.6,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jorge Maciel is 1 game into the job at Olympique Lyonnais. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Jorge Maciel","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":4,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.5}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Brestois come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.854166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":5.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.044,"defence":0.029,"effective_matches":12.9,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":0.03,"defence":0.162,"effective_matches":12.8,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Olympique Lyonnais work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.2,"shots":16.4,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":3.9,"corners_per_shot":0.238,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.27},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.7,"shots":12.5,"xg_per_shot":0.12,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.38,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"possession_gap":-3.5},"strength":0.139,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23389630794202398},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7251,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":210524,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":105,"home_team":"Stade Brestois","away_team_id":100,"away_team":"Olympique Lyonnais","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":38.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3857,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210524,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:15:00Z","home_team":"Stade Brestois","away_team":"Olympique Lyonnais","polymarket_event_id":"1289732","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":16337.3658,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.35,"best_ask":0.36,"change_1d":0.01,"change_1wk":0.035,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.185,"Stade Brestois 29 0 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0715,"Stade Brestois 29 0 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais":0.09,"Stade Brestois 29 0 - 2 Olympique Lyonnais":0.06,"Stade Brestois 29 0 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0275,"Stade Brestois 29 0 - 4 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0155,"Stade Brestois 29 0 - 5 Olympique Lyonnais":0.245,"Stade Brestois 29 1 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais":0.09,"Stade Brestois 29 1 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais":0.13,"Stade Brestois 29 1 - 2 Olympique Lyonnais":0.09,"Stade Brestois 29 1 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0305,"Stade Brestois 29 1 - 4 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0185,"Stade Brestois 29 1 - 5 Olympique Lyonnais":0.25,"Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais":0.06,"Stade Brestois 29 2 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais":0.08,"Stade Brestois 29 2 - 2 Olympique Lyonnais":0.06,"Stade Brestois 29 2 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0185,"Stade Brestois 29 2 - 4 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0155,"Stade Brestois 29 2 - 5 Olympique Lyonnais":0.055,"Stade Brestois 29 3 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0235,"Stade Brestois 29 3 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0345,"Stade Brestois 29 3 - 2 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0185,"Stade Brestois 29 3 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais":0.017,"Stade Brestois 29 3 - 4 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0395,"Stade Brestois 29 3 - 5 Olympique Lyonnais":0.235,"Stade Brestois 29 4 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais":0.015,"Stade Brestois 29 4 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0175,"Stade Brestois 29 4 - 2 Olympique Lyonnais":0.015,"Stade Brestois 29 4 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais":0.1595,"Stade Brestois 29 4 - 4 Olympique Lyonnais":0.0345,"Stade Brestois 29 4 - 5 Olympique Lyonnais":0.192,"Stade Brestois 29 5 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais":0.21,"Stade Brestois 29 5 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais":0.23,"Stade Brestois 29 5 - 2 Olympique Lyonnais":0.045,"Stade Brestois 29 5 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais":0.21,"Stade Brestois 29 5 - 4 Olympique Lyonnais":0.175,"Stade Brestois 29 5 - 5 Olympique Lyonnais":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T04:57:15Z"}},"computed_at":1794046770,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d01f26","away":"#1112ab"},"venue":{"name":"Stade Francis-Le Ble","city":"Brest","capacity":15097},"pulled":[],"published":[]}