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Cahuzac","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":114,"ppm":1.12,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bruno Genesio has 19 matches in charge at Olympique de Marseille, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Bruno Genesio","matches_in_charge":19,"tenure_days":339,"ppm":1.58,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Lens come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.9895833333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.143,"defence":0.06,"effective_matches":12.8,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":0.12,"defence":-0.074,"effective_matches":12.8,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.7,"shots":15.1,"xg_per_shot":0.092,"corners":6.3,"corners_per_shot":0.414,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.13},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54,"shots":12.4,"xg_per_shot":0.098,"corners":4.5,"corners_per_shot":0.362,"finishing_vs_xg":0.28},"possession_gap":-3.3},"strength":0.133,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Lens are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.13,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique de Marseille have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.28,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"107 yellow cards in this referee's last 39 games, where 140 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds.","evidence":{"matches":39,"yellows_per_match":2.74,"reds_per_match":0.128,"league_yellows_per_match":3.6,"league_reds_per_match":0.187,"yellow_ratio":0.76,"red_ratio":0.69},"strength":0.214,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-5.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique de Marseille travel 822 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":822},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":0}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.7,"temperature_c":8,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23389630794202398},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Olympique de Marseille have been out-created in seven of their last ten games. As for the other side, RC Lens have been out-created in six of their last ten games. And they are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7214,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":210523,"event_date":"2026-11-08T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":99,"home_team":"RC Lens","away_team_id":98,"away_team":"Olympique de Marseille","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":42.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4224,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210523,"event_date":"2026-11-08T19:45:00Z","home_team":"RC Lens","away_team":"Olympique de Marseille","polymarket_event_id":"1290833","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":19634.3664,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.42,"best_ask":0.43,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":-0.045,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.215,"Racing Club de Lens 0 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.0425,"Racing Club de Lens 0 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.053,"Racing Club de Lens 0 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.041,"Racing Club de Lens 0 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.021,"Racing Club de Lens 0 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.0145,"Racing Club de Lens 0 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.205,"Racing Club de Lens 1 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.06,"Racing Club de Lens 1 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.105,"Racing Club de Lens 1 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.075,"Racing Club de Lens 1 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.0405,"Racing Club de Lens 1 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.019,"Racing Club de Lens 1 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.015,"Racing Club de Lens 2 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.045,"Racing Club de Lens 2 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.09,"Racing Club de Lens 2 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.07,"Racing Club de Lens 2 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.0355,"Racing Club de Lens 2 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.018,"Racing Club de Lens 2 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.045,"Racing Club de Lens 3 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.026,"Racing Club de Lens 3 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.052,"Racing Club de Lens 3 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.04,"Racing Club de Lens 3 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.022,"Racing Club de Lens 3 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.015,"Racing Club de Lens 3 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.22,"Racing Club de Lens 4 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.0185,"Racing Club de Lens 4 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.0165,"Racing Club de Lens 4 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.0205,"Racing Club de Lens 4 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.0155,"Racing Club de Lens 4 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.0345,"Racing Club de Lens 4 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.2275,"Racing Club de Lens 5 - 0 Olympique de Marseille":0.235,"Racing Club de Lens 5 - 1 Olympique de Marseille":0.015,"Racing Club de Lens 5 - 2 Olympique de Marseille":0.014,"Racing Club de Lens 5 - 3 Olympique de Marseille":0.225,"Racing Club de Lens 5 - 4 Olympique de Marseille":0.228,"Racing Club de Lens 5 - 5 Olympique de Marseille":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T07:57:16Z"}},"computed_at":1794046774,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#a71a1b","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Stade Bollaert-Delelis","city":"Lens","capacity":38223},"pulled":[],"published":[]}