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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":24,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":20,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":12,"gap_to_europe":-5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":8,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":12,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":7},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Luis Enrique has 29 matches in charge at Paris Saint-Germain, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Luis 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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.013888888888889,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.327,"defence":0.213,"effective_matches":12.9,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":-0.159,"defence":-0.018,"effective_matches":7,"shrunk":0.53}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paris Saint-Germain average 24 points more possession than Troyes, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Troyes work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":65.2,"shots":21.1,"xg_per_shot":0.129,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.233,"finishing_vs_xg":0.52},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":40.9,"shots":13.7,"xg_per_shot":0.083,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.419,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.22},"possession_gap":24.3},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":5.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-5.1}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23389630794202398},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6995,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:22Z","event":{"id":210522,"event_date":"2026-11-07T20:05:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":114,"home_team":"Paris Saint-Germain","away_team_id":1303,"away_team":"Troyes","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":86,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.8596,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210522,"event_date":"2026-11-07T20:05:00Z","home_team":"Paris Saint-Germain","away_team":"Troyes","polymarket_event_id":"1285198","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":49372.095,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.87,"best_ask":0.88,"change_1d":-0.02,"change_1wk":0.02,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.185,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 ES Troyes AC":0.0155,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 ES Troyes AC":0.0135,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 ES Troyes AC":0.0075,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 3 ES Troyes AC":0.0275,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 4 ES Troyes AC":0.0465,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 5 ES Troyes AC":0.1855,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 ES Troyes AC":0.07,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 ES Troyes AC":0.036,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 ES Troyes AC":0.0165,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 ES Troyes AC":0.025,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 4 ES Troyes AC":0.0725,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 5 ES Troyes AC":0.1685,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 ES Troyes AC":0.1,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 ES Troyes AC":0.075,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 ES Troyes AC":0.0285,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 ES Troyes AC":0.0085,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 4 ES Troyes AC":0.0495,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 5 ES Troyes AC":0.0445,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 ES Troyes AC":0.115,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 ES Troyes AC":0.08,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 ES Troyes AC":0.03,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 3 ES Troyes AC":0.01,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 4 ES Troyes AC":0.0395,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 5 ES Troyes AC":0.18,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 0 ES Troyes AC":0.08,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 1 ES Troyes AC":0.06,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 2 ES Troyes AC":0.024,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 3 ES Troyes AC":0.007,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 4 ES Troyes AC":0.0345,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 5 ES Troyes AC":0.1645,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 0 ES Troyes AC":0.06,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 1 ES Troyes AC":0.0385,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 2 ES Troyes AC":0.0175,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 3 ES Troyes AC":0.15,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 4 ES Troyes AC":0.239,"Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 5 ES Troyes AC":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T14:57:13Z"}},"computed_at":1793981322,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Paris Saint-Germain will dominate possession, but their recent form masks some deep structural flaws. While the league leaders consistently generate the best chances, their defense relies heavily on goalkeeping heroics rather than defensive solidity, having conceded far fewer goals than the quality of shots allowed suggests. Troyes arrive with growing momentum, having improved their creative output significantly over the last month. However, the hosts face a depleted attacking unit missing key contributors responsible for a large portion of their output and creative spark. Despite losing regular defensive stability, the league leaders will control the tempo and territory, relying on their superior ability to convert possession into meaningful scoring opportunities to secure a home victory.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paris Saint-Germain are without 4 players, and Ousmane Dembélé, Achraf Hakimi and Maghnes Akliouche are real losses.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.286,"combined_importance":0.549,"players":[{"player":"Ousmane Dembélé","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.048,"importance":0.225,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4,"tags":["best_performer","in_form"]},{"player":"Achraf Hakimi","role":"DEF","reason":"rested","goal_share":0.143,"importance":0.134,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["chance_creator","in_form"]},{"player":"Maghnes Akliouche","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0.048,"importance":0.118,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7,"tags":["chance_creator"]},{"player":"Khvicha Kvaratskhelia","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0.048,"importance":0.072,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4}]},"strength":1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.8},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.732,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.268,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paris Saint-Germain average 24 points more possession than Troyes, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Troyes work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":65.2,"shots":21.1,"xg_per_shot":0.129,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.233,"finishing_vs_xg":0.52},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":40.9,"shots":13.7,"xg_per_shot":0.083,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.419,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.22},"possession_gap":24.3},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":5.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-5.1}]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#1368a8"},"venue":{"name":"Parc des Princes","city":"Paris","capacity":48583},"pulled":[],"published":[]}