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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Le Mans are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AS Monaco have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.39,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"120 yellow cards in this referee's last 29 games, where 104 would be usual in this league, and 8 reds. — though 29 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":29,"yellows_per_match":4.14,"reds_per_match":0.276,"league_yellows_per_match":3.6,"league_reds_per_match":0.187,"yellow_ratio":1.15,"red_ratio":1.47,"sample":29,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 730 km for AS Monaco.","evidence":{"travel_km":730},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 36 km/h wind.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":36.3,"temperature_c":16,"description":"rain"},"strength":0.151,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"both","pct":1.1}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23389630794202398},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results only tell half of this one, and the other half is all AS Monaco. AS Monaco are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. As for the other side, Le Mans are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. If that carries on, AS Monaco should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7255,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":210521,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1619,"home_team":"Le Mans","away_team_id":101,"away_team":"AS Monaco","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":54.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5474,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210521,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:15:00Z","home_team":"Le Mans","away_team":"AS Monaco","polymarket_event_id":"1289735","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":18585.5309,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.2,"best_ask":0.21,"change_1d":-0.02,"change_1wk":-0.02,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.21,"Le Mans FC 0 - 0 AS Monaco FC":0.05,"Le Mans FC 0 - 1 AS Monaco FC":0.09,"Le Mans FC 0 - 2 AS Monaco FC":0.09,"Le Mans FC 0 - 3 AS Monaco FC":0.0525,"Le Mans FC 0 - 4 AS Monaco FC":0.018,"Le Mans FC 0 - 5 AS Monaco FC":0.034,"Le Mans FC 1 - 0 AS Monaco FC":0.0475,"Le Mans FC 1 - 1 AS Monaco FC":0.1,"Le Mans FC 1 - 2 AS Monaco FC":0.1,"Le Mans FC 1 - 3 AS Monaco FC":0.06,"Le Mans FC 1 - 4 AS Monaco FC":0.023,"Le Mans FC 1 - 5 AS Monaco FC":0.034,"Le Mans FC 2 - 0 AS Monaco FC":0.028,"Le Mans FC 2 - 1 AS Monaco FC":0.06,"Le Mans FC 2 - 2 AS Monaco FC":0.06,"Le Mans FC 2 - 3 AS Monaco FC":0.041,"Le Mans FC 2 - 4 AS Monaco FC":0.0145,"Le Mans FC 2 - 5 AS Monaco FC":0.0295,"Le Mans FC 3 - 0 AS Monaco FC":0.0165,"Le Mans FC 3 - 1 AS Monaco FC":0.0175,"Le Mans FC 3 - 2 AS Monaco FC":0.0215,"Le Mans FC 3 - 3 AS Monaco FC":0.013,"Le Mans FC 3 - 4 AS Monaco FC":0.014,"Le Mans FC 3 - 5 AS Monaco FC":0.205,"Le Mans FC 4 - 0 AS Monaco FC":0.0345,"Le Mans FC 4 - 1 AS Monaco FC":0.0135,"Le Mans FC 4 - 2 AS Monaco FC":0.0135,"Le Mans FC 4 - 3 AS Monaco FC":0.176,"Le Mans FC 4 - 4 AS Monaco FC":0.0345,"Le Mans FC 4 - 5 AS Monaco FC":0.193,"Le Mans FC 5 - 0 AS Monaco FC":0.11,"Le Mans FC 5 - 1 AS Monaco FC":0.085,"Le Mans FC 5 - 2 AS Monaco FC":0.034,"Le Mans FC 5 - 3 AS Monaco FC":0.22,"Le Mans FC 5 - 4 AS Monaco FC":0.19,"Le Mans FC 5 - 5 AS Monaco FC":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T04:57:15Z"}},"computed_at":1794046770,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ac0e1c","away":"#d11139"},"venue":{"name":"Stade Marie-Marvingt","city":"Le Mans","capacity":25000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}