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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":24,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":2,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":-6,"gap_to_europe":13},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":12,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Didier Digard has 23 matches in charge at Le Havre, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Didier Digard","matches_in_charge":23,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":0.87,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alexandre Dujeux has 31 matches in charge at Lorient, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Alexandre Dujeux","matches_in_charge":31,"tenure_days":646,"ppm":1.97,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Le Havre come in on 9 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":8.927083333333334,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":8.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lorient come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.854166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.072,"defence":-0.124,"effective_matches":12.8,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":-0.139,"defence":0.158,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.5,"shots":16.1,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.327,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.12},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.7,"shots":10.4,"xg_per_shot":0.106,"corners":3.5,"corners_per_shot":0.331,"finishing_vs_xg":0.06},"possession_gap":-0.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Le Havre are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lorient are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"78 yellow cards in this referee's last 29 games, where 104 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds. — though 29 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":29,"yellows_per_match":2.69,"reds_per_match":0.138,"league_yellows_per_match":3.6,"league_reds_per_match":0.187,"yellow_ratio":0.75,"red_ratio":0.74,"sample":29,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 325 km for Lorient.","evidence":{"travel_km":325},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 36 km/h wind.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":35.6,"temperature_c":15,"description":null},"strength":0.141,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"both","pct":1.1}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23389630794202398},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Le Havre are in trouble, and not only on results. At home, Le Havre have been out-created in four of their last five home games. And they have scored only 9 in their last nine from chances that would usually bring about 15. The goals are coming. As for the other side, Lorient are happy without the ball: in two of the four games they had less of it, they still made the better chances. Until Le Havre sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7250,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":210520,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":102,"home_team":"Le Havre","away_team_id":110,"away_team":"Lorient","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":37.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3769,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210520,"event_date":"2026-11-08T16:15:00Z","home_team":"Le Havre","away_team":"Lorient","polymarket_event_id":"1289738","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":21095.934,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.33,"best_ask":0.34,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.215,"Le Havre AC 0 - 0 FC Lorient":0.085,"Le Havre AC 0 - 1 FC Lorient":0.1,"Le Havre AC 0 - 2 FC Lorient":0.06,"Le Havre AC 0 - 3 FC Lorient":0.0265,"Le Havre AC 0 - 4 FC Lorient":0.0185,"Le Havre AC 0 - 5 FC Lorient":0.0395,"Le Havre AC 1 - 0 FC Lorient":0.09,"Le Havre AC 1 - 1 FC Lorient":0.14,"Le Havre AC 1 - 2 FC Lorient":0.09,"Le Havre AC 1 - 3 FC Lorient":0.036,"Le Havre AC 1 - 4 FC Lorient":0.0175,"Le Havre AC 1 - 5 FC Lorient":0.045,"Le Havre AC 2 - 0 FC Lorient":0.0555,"Le Havre AC 2 - 1 FC Lorient":0.08,"Le Havre AC 2 - 2 FC Lorient":0.055,"Le Havre AC 2 - 3 FC Lorient":0.0245,"Le Havre AC 2 - 4 FC Lorient":0.014,"Le Havre AC 2 - 5 FC Lorient":0.0445,"Le Havre AC 3 - 0 FC Lorient":0.023,"Le Havre AC 3 - 1 FC Lorient":0.03,"Le Havre AC 3 - 2 FC Lorient":0.0225,"Le Havre AC 3 - 3 FC Lorient":0.015,"Le Havre AC 3 - 4 FC Lorient":0.0245,"Le Havre AC 3 - 5 FC Lorient":0.15,"Le Havre AC 4 - 0 FC Lorient":0.014,"Le Havre AC 4 - 1 FC Lorient":0.0155,"Le Havre AC 4 - 2 FC Lorient":0.013,"Le Havre AC 4 - 3 FC Lorient":0.1075,"Le Havre AC 4 - 4 FC Lorient":0.0345,"Le Havre AC 4 - 5 FC Lorient":0.1555,"Le Havre AC 5 - 0 FC Lorient":0.045,"Le Havre AC 5 - 1 FC Lorient":0.0395,"Le Havre AC 5 - 2 FC Lorient":0.034,"Le Havre AC 5 - 3 FC Lorient":0.155,"Le Havre AC 5 - 4 FC Lorient":0.138,"Le Havre AC 5 - 5 FC Lorient":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T04:57:15Z"}},"computed_at":1794046771,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0a4376","away":"#d56711"},"venue":{"name":"Stade Oceane","city":"Le Havre","capacity":25181},"pulled":[],"published":[]}