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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":24,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":10,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":10,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":17,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":3,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":-2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Will Still is 15 games into the job at AJ Auxerre, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Will Still","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":113,"ppm":1.4,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Liam Rosenior has 29 matches in charge at Paris FC, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Liam Rosenior","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":645,"ppm":1.97,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AJ Auxerre come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.166666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paris FC come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.072916666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.111,"defence":-0.118,"effective_matches":12.8,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":0.059,"defence":0.104,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; AJ Auxerre work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.2,"shots":11.6,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.404,"finishing_vs_xg":0.31},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.9,"shots":13.9,"xg_per_shot":0.127,"corners":3.6,"corners_per_shot":0.262,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.09},"possession_gap":-3.7},"strength":0.15,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AJ Auxerre have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.31,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paris FC are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.09,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"109 yellow cards in this referee's last 24 games, where 86 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds. — though 24 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":24,"yellows_per_match":4.54,"reds_per_match":0.25,"league_yellows_per_match":3.6,"league_reds_per_match":0.187,"yellow_ratio":1.26,"red_ratio":1.34,"sample":24,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 147 km for Paris FC.","evidence":{"travel_km":147},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":14.8,"temperature_c":6,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23389630794202398},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Auxerre will dominate this game at home while Paris FC struggle to overcome their poor record on the road. Paris FC create higher quality openings despite frequently seeing less of the ball, yet their lack of a prolific threat without their main forward duo will hamper them here. Auxerre have been strong at their own ground recently, winning three of their last six matches. With the visitors missing their primary creative outlet and failing to impress away, the hosts will control the tempo. Lassine Sinayoko brings clinical form with four goals in his last five games to provide the difference. Ultimately, Auxerre secures a narrow victory because they possess the greater attacking depth to unlock a stubborn defense.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7037,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:22Z","event":{"id":210519,"event_date":"2026-11-07T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":109,"home_team":"AJ Auxerre","away_team_id":108,"away_team":"Paris FC","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":53,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5299,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210519,"event_date":"2026-11-07T18:00:00Z","home_team":"AJ Auxerre","away_team":"Paris FC","polymarket_event_id":"1284255","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":21919.7309,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.21,"best_ask":0.22,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.03,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.13,"AJ Auxerre 0 - 0 Paris FC":0.055,"AJ Auxerre 0 - 1 Paris FC":0.1,"AJ Auxerre 0 - 2 Paris FC":0.085,"AJ Auxerre 0 - 3 Paris FC":0.055,"AJ Auxerre 0 - 4 Paris FC":0.0235,"AJ Auxerre 0 - 5 Paris FC":0.0115,"AJ Auxerre 1 - 0 Paris FC":0.055,"AJ Auxerre 1 - 1 Paris FC":0.11,"AJ Auxerre 1 - 2 Paris FC":0.1,"AJ Auxerre 1 - 3 Paris FC":0.059,"AJ Auxerre 1 - 4 Paris FC":0.025,"AJ Auxerre 1 - 5 Paris FC":0.01,"AJ Auxerre 2 - 0 Paris FC":0.029,"AJ Auxerre 2 - 1 Paris FC":0.06,"AJ Auxerre 2 - 2 Paris FC":0.055,"AJ Auxerre 2 - 3 Paris FC":0.035,"AJ Auxerre 2 - 4 Paris FC":0.013,"AJ Auxerre 2 - 5 Paris FC":0.008,"AJ Auxerre 3 - 0 Paris FC":0.0075,"AJ Auxerre 3 - 1 Paris FC":0.019,"AJ Auxerre 3 - 2 Paris FC":0.0185,"AJ Auxerre 3 - 3 Paris FC":0.0085,"AJ Auxerre 3 - 4 Paris FC":0.007,"AJ Auxerre 3 - 5 Paris FC":0.2,"AJ Auxerre 4 - 0 Paris FC":0.0855,"AJ Auxerre 4 - 1 Paris FC":0.007,"AJ Auxerre 4 - 2 Paris FC":0.007,"AJ Auxerre 4 - 3 Paris FC":0.104,"AJ Auxerre 4 - 4 Paris FC":0.0345,"AJ Auxerre 4 - 5 Paris FC":0.1225,"AJ Auxerre 5 - 0 Paris FC":0.1435,"AJ Auxerre 5 - 1 Paris FC":0.12,"AJ Auxerre 5 - 2 Paris FC":0.0345,"AJ Auxerre 5 - 3 Paris FC":0.13,"AJ Auxerre 5 - 4 Paris FC":0.1645,"AJ Auxerre 5 - 5 Paris FC":0.0395},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T12:57:12Z"}},"computed_at":1793981319,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#1d509d","away":"#1a2b66"},"venue":{"name":"Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps","city":"Auxerre","capacity":18541},"pulled":[],"published":[]}