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Dumont","matches_in_charge":33,"tenure_days":295,"ppm":1.58,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.3,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Patrick Videira has 35 matches in charge at Le Mans, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Patrick Videira","matches_in_charge":35,"tenure_days":294,"ppm":1.51,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Troyes come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.145833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Le Mans come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.145833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.181,"defence":-0.066,"effective_matches":6.3,"shrunk":0.56},"away":{"attack":0.01,"defence":-0.111,"effective_matches":6.3,"shrunk":0.56}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Troyes work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":41.1,"shots":13.6,"xg_per_shot":0.079,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.433,"finishing_vs_xg":0.1},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.8,"shots":10.6,"xg_per_shot":0.148,"corners":2.6,"corners_per_shot":0.241,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.32},"possession_gap":-3.7},"strength":0.147,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Troyes are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.1,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Le Mans have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.32,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"66 yellow cards in this referee's last 23 games, where 84 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 23 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":23,"yellows_per_match":2.87,"reds_per_match":0.043,"league_yellows_per_match":3.63,"league_reds_per_match":0.194,"yellow_ratio":0.79,"red_ratio":0.22,"sample":23,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 291 km for Le Mans.","evidence":{"travel_km":291},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":11.8,"temperature_c":5,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19199036160828656},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6288,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:17Z","event":{"id":210517,"event_date":"2026-10-31T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1303,"home_team":"Troyes","away_team_id":1619,"away_team":"Le Mans","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":40.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4083,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210517,"event_date":"2026-10-31T19:45:00Z","home_team":"Troyes","away_team":"Le Mans","polymarket_event_id":"1242603","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-31T07:27:12Z"}},"computed_at":1793435719,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Troyes and Le Mans will likely produce a messy affair as both sides struggle with depleted lineups. Le Mans are trending down, with their recent form showing a sharp decline in chance creation and defensive stability. They are missing their primary attacking threat, having lost the man who scored in three consecutive games and directly contributed to two goals against Lens. Troyes are fragile at the back and often shoot from terrible positions, hitting the target only 18 times from 89 attempts. Poor travel form makes Le Mans vulnerable, but Troyes remains stuck in the bottom three. The final result hinges on which porous defense breaks first.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Le Mans are without 7 players, and Adil Bourabaa is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":7,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.273,"combined_importance":0.224,"players":[{"player":"Adil Bourabaa","role":"ATT","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0.273,"importance":0.189,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7,"tags":["in_form"]},{"player":"Harold Voyer","role":"DEF","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.03,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Djibril Sidibé","role":"MID","reason":"Foot Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.005,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Erwan Colas","role":"ATT","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Martin Rossignol","role":"MID","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Théo Eyoum","role":"DEF","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Yasser Larouci","role":"DEF","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.56,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.632,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.368,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#1368a8","away":"#ac0e1c"},"venue":{"name":"Stade de l'Aube","city":"Troyes","capacity":20400},"pulled":[],"published":[]}