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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.90625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.013,"defence":-0.065,"effective_matches":12.4,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":-0.096,"defence":-0.055,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Auxerre work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.9,"shots":13.1,"xg_per_shot":0.085,"corners":2.5,"corners_per_shot":0.194,"finishing_vs_xg":0.14},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.1,"shots":12.3,"xg_per_shot":0.113,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.416,"finishing_vs_xg":0.2},"possession_gap":-0.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Strasbourg are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Auxerre are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.2,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"108 yellow cards in this referee's last 33 games, where 119 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds.","evidence":{"matches":33,"yellows_per_match":3.27,"reds_per_match":0.121,"league_yellows_per_match":3.61,"league_reds_per_match":0.188,"yellow_ratio":0.91,"red_ratio":0.64},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-2.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 321 km for Auxerre.","evidence":{"travel_km":321},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.5,"temperature_c":13,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19601466461153794},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Auxerre can exploit a fragile Strasbourg side and claim victory here. Sitting 16th in the bottom three after losing four of their last six, the hosts concede far too easily, allowing at least six shots on target in four of their past six outings. Their threat up front is blunted without Joaquin Panichelli, contributing to them making poorer chances than their opponents in seven of their last nine matches. Auxerre struggle on the road and conceded better openings in three of their past four away fixtures, but their broader trajectory is up. Having won four of their last six while sharpening their attack, Cameron Archer's streak of four goals in five games will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6591,"created_at":"2026-10-26T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":210516,"event_date":"2026-11-01T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":112,"home_team":"RC Strasbourg","away_team_id":109,"away_team":"Auxerre","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":51.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5191,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210516,"event_date":"2026-11-01T14:00:00Z","home_team":"RC Strasbourg","away_team":"Auxerre","polymarket_event_id":"1246467","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":321,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-11-01T08:57:11Z"}},"computed_at":1793524136,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#1198ce","away":"#1d509d"},"venue":{"name":"Stade de la Meinau","city":"Strasbourg","capacity":32047},"pulled":[],"published":[]}