{"id":210513,"league_id":6,"league":"Ligue 1","kickoff":1793549700,"home":"Olympique Lyonnais","away":"Angers","home_id":100,"away_id":107,"venue_id":98,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.65,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.75,0.93],"read":{"text":"Olympique Lyonnais to win, with goals","side":"home"},"pass":"Olympique Lyonnais v Angers is one to leave alone. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"Olympique Lyonnais are without 6 players, and Pavel Šulc is a real loss."}],"lambda_home":1.745791887830113,"lambda_away":0.9271978373908561,"corner_rate":10.93,"card_rate":0.205,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.768,"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":1104,"name":"Dominik Greif","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.765},{"id":1111,"name":"Abner Vinícius","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.653},{"id":1019,"name":"Felix Bacher","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.69},{"id":1106,"name":"Moussa Niakhaté","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.624},{"id":4061,"name":"Zachary Athekame","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.763},{"id":8909,"name":"Noah Nartey","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.498},{"id":1113,"name":"Corentin Tolisso","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.697},{"id":3040,"name":"Mads Bidstrup","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.631},{"id":16971,"name":"Keito Nakamura","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.442},{"id":8717,"name":"Kaïl Boudache","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.491},{"id":24027,"name":"Ernest Nuamah","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.676},{"id":3982,"name":"Ruben Kluivert","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.491},{"id":1105,"name":"Tanner Tessmann","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.453},{"id":3857,"name":"Clinton Mata","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.419},{"id":1119,"name":"Khalis Merah","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.385},{"id":1120,"name":"Rémy Descamps","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.338},{"id":2174,"name":"Julien Duranville","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.321},{"id":4678,"name":"Noham Kamara","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.238},{"id":8640,"name":"Rémi Himbert","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.177},{"id":94080,"name":"Justin Bengui","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":1123,"name":"Adil Hamdani","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005},{"id":221269,"name":"Angel Daniel Garcia","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.786},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":1124,"name":"Anthony Lopes","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.794},{"id":40571,"name":"Joseph Kalulu","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.625},{"id":1388,"name":"Ousmane Camara","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.638},{"id":1389,"name":"Jordan Lefort","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.624},{"id":1387,"name":"Carlens Arcus","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.625},{"id":5180,"name":"Branco Van den Boomen","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.773},{"id":1393,"name":"Yassin Belkhdim","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.666},{"id":1395,"name":"Amine Sbai","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.755},{"id":1422,"name":"Anthony Bermont","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.241},{"id":4785,"name":"Jim Allevinah","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.749},{"id":1398,"name":"Prosper Peter","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.453},{"id":1397,"name":"Lilian Raolisoa","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.45},{"id":1399,"name":"Harouna Djibirin","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.292},{"id":1391,"name":"Haris Belkebla","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.273},{"id":21669,"name":"Maël Gernigon","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.27},{"id":23988,"name":"Bané Diatta","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.258},{"id":66403,"name":"Mamadou Usman Simbakoli","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.215},{"id":1394,"name":"Louis Mouton","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.175},{"id":1403,"name":"Marius Louër","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.162},{"id":1386,"name":"Melvin Zinga","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":1402,"name":"Oumar Pona","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":204400,"name":"Jules Bouffandeau","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.768},"unavailable":[{"id":2190,"name":"Loïs Openda","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Leg Injury"},{"id":21358,"name":"Mohamed Ouédraogo","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":1107,"name":"Nicolás Tagliafico","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":1112,"name":"Pavel Šulc","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Meniscus Injury"},{"id":13548,"name":"Steeve Kango","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Concussion"},{"id":1109,"name":"Tyler Morton","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Groin Injury"},{"id":893,"name":"Amine El Ouazzani","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Groin Injury"},{"id":4510,"name":"Emmanuel Biumla","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knee Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":1104,"name":"Dominik Greif","side":"home"},{"id":1111,"name":"Abner Vinícius","side":"home"},{"id":1019,"name":"Felix Bacher","side":"home"},{"id":1106,"name":"Moussa Niakhaté","side":"home"},{"id":4061,"name":"Zachary Athekame","side":"home"},{"id":8909,"name":"Noah Nartey","side":"home"},{"id":1113,"name":"Corentin Tolisso","side":"home"},{"id":3040,"name":"Mads Bidstrup","side":"home"},{"id":16971,"name":"Keito Nakamura","side":"home"},{"id":8717,"name":"Kaïl Boudache","side":"home"},{"id":24027,"name":"Ernest Nuamah","side":"home"},{"id":3982,"name":"Ruben Kluivert","side":"home"},{"id":1105,"name":"Tanner Tessmann","side":"home"},{"id":3857,"name":"Clinton Mata","side":"home"},{"id":1119,"name":"Khalis Merah","side":"home"},{"id":1120,"name":"Rémy Descamps","side":"home"},{"id":2174,"name":"Julien Duranville","side":"home"},{"id":4678,"name":"Noham Kamara","side":"home"},{"id":8640,"name":"Rémi Himbert","side":"home"},{"id":94080,"name":"Justin Bengui","side":"home"},{"id":1123,"name":"Adil Hamdani","side":"home"},{"id":221269,"name":"Angel Daniel Garcia","side":"home"},{"id":1107,"name":"Nicolás Tagliafico","side":"home"},{"id":13548,"name":"Steeve Kango","side":"home"},{"id":1112,"name":"Pavel Šulc","side":"home"},{"id":2190,"name":"Loïs Openda","side":"home"},{"id":1122,"name":"Alejandro Gomes Rodriguez","side":"home"},{"id":3191,"name":"Lassine Diarra","side":"home"},{"id":29063,"name":"Paul Akouokou","side":"home"},{"id":1109,"name":"Tyler Morton","side":"home"},{"id":1110,"name":"Mathys de Carvalho","side":"home"},{"id":21358,"name":"Mohamed Ouédraogo","side":"home"},{"id":4335,"name":"Malick Fofana","side":"home"},{"id":1124,"name":"Anthony Lopes","side":"away"},{"id":40571,"name":"Joseph Kalulu","side":"away"},{"id":1388,"name":"Ousmane Camara","side":"away"},{"id":1389,"name":"Jordan Lefort","side":"away"},{"id":1387,"name":"Carlens Arcus","side":"away"},{"id":5180,"name":"Branco Van den Boomen","side":"away"},{"id":1393,"name":"Yassin Belkhdim","side":"away"},{"id":1395,"name":"Amine Sbai","side":"away"},{"id":1422,"name":"Anthony Bermont","side":"away"},{"id":4785,"name":"Jim Allevinah","side":"away"},{"id":1398,"name":"Prosper Peter","side":"away"},{"id":1397,"name":"Lilian Raolisoa","side":"away"},{"id":1399,"name":"Harouna Djibirin","side":"away"},{"id":1391,"name":"Haris Belkebla","side":"away"},{"id":21669,"name":"Maël Gernigon","side":"away"},{"id":23988,"name":"Bané Diatta","side":"away"},{"id":66403,"name":"Mamadou Usman Simbakoli","side":"away"},{"id":1394,"name":"Louis Mouton","side":"away"},{"id":1403,"name":"Marius Louër","side":"away"},{"id":1386,"name":"Melvin Zinga","side":"away"},{"id":1402,"name":"Oumar Pona","side":"away"},{"id":204400,"name":"Jules Bouffandeau","side":"away"},{"id":4510,"name":"Emmanuel Biumla","side":"away"},{"id":893,"name":"Amine El Ouazzani","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":1112,"name":"Pavel Šulc","side":"home","team":"Olympique Lyonnais","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Meniscus Injury","expected_return":"2027-01-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":3,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Nice","kickoff":1792349100,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_creator"],"importance":0.107,"country":{"team":"Czechia","apps":6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782349200},"lately":null},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":81,"country":0}},{"id":2190,"name":"Loïs Openda","side":"home","team":"Olympique Lyonnais","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":10,"starts":10,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Le Havre","kickoff":1788029100,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.074,"country":{"team":null,"apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":21358,"name":"Mohamed Ouédraogo","side":"home","team":"Olympique Lyonnais","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LM","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":"2027-06-30","season":{"apps":5,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"RSC Anderlecht","kickoff":1789585200,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.021,"country":{"team":"Burkina Faso","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":1107,"name":"Nicolás Tagliafico","side":"home","team":"Olympique Lyonnais","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-06","season":{"apps":3,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.002,"country":{"team":"Argentina","apps":9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":7,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1784487600},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":13548,"name":"Steeve Kango","side":"home","team":"Olympique Lyonnais","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Concussion","expected_return":"2026-11-05","season":{"apps":1,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":31,"country":0}},{"id":24027,"name":"Ernest Nuamah","side":"home","team":"Olympique Lyonnais","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":12,"starts":10,"goals":5,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Stade Rennais","kickoff":1789843500,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer"],"importance":0.176,"country":{"team":"Ghana","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":1,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":1,"ended":1783128600},"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":105,"country":0}},{"id":8717,"name":"Kaïl Boudache","side":"home","team":"Olympique Lyonnais","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":14,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":14,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.01,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":159,"country":0}},{"id":893,"name":"Amine El Ouazzani","side":"away","team":"Angers","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Groin Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-22","season":{"apps":8,"starts":6,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Auxerre","kickoff":1788029100,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.176,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":28,"country":0}},{"id":4510,"name":"Emmanuel Biumla","side":"away","team":"Angers","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":2,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.003,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1398,"name":"Prosper Peter","side":"away","team":"Angers","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":3,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Troyes","kickoff":1789843500,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.088,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":83,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":100,"away":107},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":1},"below":{"w":3,"d":2,"l":1}},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":4},"below":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":380,"name":"Paulo Fonseca","vs":{"w":2,"d":1,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1775394000,"score":"0-0","result":"D"}}},"away":{"id":1834,"name":"Stephane Gilli","vs":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1747508400,"score":"0-2","result":"L"}}}},"best_xi":[{"id":1124,"name":"Anthony Lopes","team_id":107,"position":"G","matches":8,"goals":0,"assists":0},{"id":4061,"name":"Zachary Athekame","team_id":100,"position":"D","matches":8,"goals":2,"assists":3},{"id":24027,"name":"Ernest Nuamah","team_id":100,"position":"M","matches":6,"goals":3,"assists":1}],"players":{"1107":{"caps":104,"goals":1,"country":"Argentina","signed":null},"1112":{"caps":30,"goals":5,"country":"Czechia","signed":{"from":"FC Viktoria Plzeň","fee":7500000,"at":1754265600}},"21358":{"caps":7,"goals":0,"country":"Burkina Faso","signed":{"from":"SCR Altach","fee":2200000,"at":1783036800}},"24027":{"caps":20,"goals":2,"country":"Ghana","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":2810,"name":"Esteban Lepaul","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":3527,"name":"Elye Wahi","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":2099,"name":"Lassine Sinayoko","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":4540,"name":"Amine Gouiri","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":6412,"name":"Cameron Archer","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":3382,"name":"Casper Tengstedt","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":2015,"name":"Boulaye Dia","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":749,"name":"Ferran Torres","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":1414,"name":"Florian Thauvin","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":6214,"name":"Josh Maja","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":1729,"name":"Kamory Doumbia","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":27966,"name":"Louis Mafouta","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":4513,"name":"Paris Brunner","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":3424,"name":"Sebastian Szymański","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":4241,"name":"Achraf Hakimi","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 9","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":39,"home_wins":22,"draws":8,"away_wins":9,"home_goals":71,"away_goals":36,"avg_total_goals":2.7435897435897436,"home_win_rate":0.5641025641025641,"away_win_rate":0.23076923076923078,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Olympique Lyonnais","date":"2026-04-05T13:00:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"0-0","event_id":2007,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":100,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Angers","date":"2025-09-19T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Olympique Lyonnais","score":"1-0","event_id":1799,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":100},{"away":"Angers","date":"2025-05-17T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Olympique Lyonnais","score":"2-0","event_id":306345,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":100},{"away":"Olympique Lyonnais","date":"2024-12-07T20:00:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"0-3","event_id":306165,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":100,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Olympique Lyonnais","date":"2023-02-25T16:00:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"1-3","event_id":316763,"away_score":3,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":100,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Angers","date":"2022-09-03T17:00:00+00:00","home":"Olympique Lyonnais","score":"5-0","event_id":316573,"away_score":0,"home_score":5,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":100},{"away":"Angers","date":"2022-04-03T15:05:00+00:00","home":"Olympique Lyonnais","score":"3-2","event_id":320591,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":100},{"away":"Olympique Lyonnais","date":"2021-08-15T11:00:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"3-0","event_id":320300,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":100,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Angers","date":"2021-04-11T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Olympique Lyonnais","score":"3-0","event_id":324279,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":100},{"away":"Olympique Lyonnais","date":"2020-11-22T16:00:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"0-1","event_id":324067,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":100,"home_team_id":107}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":100,"position":5,"played":8,"points":14,"goal_diff":6,"team_name":"Olympique Lyonnais","won":4,"drawn":2,"lost":2,"goals_for":13,"goals_against":7,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":107,"position":14,"played":8,"points":8,"goal_diff":-6,"team_name":"Angers","won":2,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":9,"goals_against":15,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"3-0-3","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":1.67,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"WLWWLL","venue_ppg":3},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":1,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"LDWLLD","venue_ppg":0.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique Lyonnais are without 6 players, and Pavel Šulc is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.167,"combined_importance":0.204,"players":[{"player":"Pavel Šulc","role":"ATT","reason":"Meniscus Injury","goal_share":0.083,"importance":0.107,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5,"tags":["top_creator"]},{"player":"Loïs Openda","role":"ATT","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0.083,"importance":0.074,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Mohamed Ouédraogo","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.021,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Nicolás Tagliafico","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.002,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Steeve Kango","role":"DEF","reason":"Concussion","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Tyler Morton","role":"MID","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.51,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-2.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Angers are without 2 players, and Amine El Ouazzani is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.222,"combined_importance":0.179,"players":[{"player":"Amine El Ouazzani","role":"ATT","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0.222,"importance":0.176,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Emmanuel Biumla","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.003,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.448,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2.9},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.5}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.768,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.232,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":14,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":6,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":0},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":8,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":12,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":6},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paulo Fonseca has 28 matches in charge at Olympique Lyonnais, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Paulo Fonseca","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.75,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stephane Gilli is 8 games into the job at Angers, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Stephane Gilli","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":72,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique Lyonnais come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.864583333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Angers come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.03,"defence":0.141,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":-0.169,"defence":-0.091,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.2,"shots":12.1,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.393,"finishing_vs_xg":0.16},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.3,"shots":12.9,"xg_per_shot":0.115,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.474,"finishing_vs_xg":0.02},"possession_gap":0.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique Lyonnais are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.16,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Angers are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.02,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"108 yellow cards in this referee's last 23 games, where 83 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds. — though 23 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":23,"yellows_per_match":4.7,"reds_per_match":0.261,"league_yellows_per_match":3.61,"league_reds_per_match":0.188,"yellow_ratio":1.3,"red_ratio":1.39,"sample":23,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 462 km for Angers.","evidence":{"travel_km":462},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.2,"temperature_c":10,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19601466461153794},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Olympique Lyonnais might have three wins from six, but they will struggle to break down a resilient Angers. Lyon are trending down because their last four games were their poorest for making and allowing chances. They lose their best creator to a meniscus injury, which leaves a hole in the midfield. Angers have kept three clean sheets in six matches to prove they can lock the door. However, the visitors lose a major part of their goals with a groin injury to the forward who starred in the 3-1 win over Auxerre. Ernest Nuamah must carry the load after scoring three goals in the last five games. His finishing decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6287,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:17Z","event":{"id":210513,"event_date":"2026-11-01T16:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":100,"home_team":"Olympique Lyonnais","away_team_id":107,"away_team":"Angers","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":67.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6758,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210513,"event_date":"2026-11-01T16:15:00Z","home_team":"Olympique Lyonnais","away_team":"Angers","polymarket_event_id":"1242606","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-31T17:57:13Z"}},"computed_at":1793524139,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#1112ab","away":"#c49d6e"},"venue":{"name":"Groupama Stadium","city":"Lyon","capacity":59186},"pulled":[],"published":[]}