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schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.96875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Rennais come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.072916666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.122,"defence":-0.012,"effective_matches":13.2,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":0.168,"defence":-0.106,"effective_matches":12.5,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Nice work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":10.8,"xg_per_shot":0.09,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.447,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.05},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":17.5,"xg_per_shot":0.108,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.337,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.05},"possession_gap":0.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nice are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Rennais are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"85 yellow cards in this referee's last 28 games, where 102 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds. — though 28 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":28,"yellows_per_match":3.04,"reds_per_match":0.25,"league_yellows_per_match":3.63,"league_reds_per_match":0.194,"yellow_ratio":0.84,"red_ratio":1.29,"sample":28,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Rennais travel 846 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":846},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3.2,"temperature_c":18,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19201505368885338},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Nice will claim the win here because Stade Rennais simply cannot cope on the road without their chief finisher. Both sides have won three of their last six, but Nice are a different side at home. Stade Rennais travel badly, and losing Esteban Lepaul to an ankle problem takes away most of their scoring power. Their top scorer has ten goals this season, including four in his last five matches, so the visitors will struggle to find a way through. Nice will take control and supply Boulaye Dia, who boasts four goals in his last five games. Dia's form in front of goal will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6335,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:17Z","event":{"id":210512,"event_date":"2026-10-30T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":103,"home_team":"Nice","away_team_id":97,"away_team":"Stade Rennais","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":39.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.393,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210512,"event_date":"2026-10-30T18:00:00Z","home_team":"Nice","away_team":"Stade Rennais","polymarket_event_id":"1241603","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":342,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T05:57:08Z"}},"computed_at":1793344876,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ba9766","away":"#ed3324"},"venue":{"name":"Allianz Riviera","city":"Nice","capacity":36178},"pulled":[],"published":[]}