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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.53,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Lens are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.2,"combined_importance":0.273,"players":[{"player":"Abdallah Sima","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.067,"importance":0.097,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Odsonne Édouard","role":"ATT","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0.067,"importance":0.097,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Ismaelo Ganiou","role":"DEF","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0.067,"importance":0.075,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Maik Nawrocki","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.004,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Jhoanner Chávez","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11}]},"strength":0.683,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.695,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.305,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":15,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":2,"gap_to_safety":8,"gap_to_europe":-1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":13,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":4,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Local derby. Cards and both-teams-to-score are the reliable reads; total goals are not, since derbies run cagey about as often as they run open.","evidence":{"derby":true},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":13.5}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lille lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"Lille","reverse_score":"3-0","reverse_date":1758395100},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Davide Ancelotti has 18 matches in charge at Lille, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Davide Ancelotti","matches_in_charge":18,"tenure_days":315,"ppm":1.61,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Yannick Cahuzac is 9 games into the job at RC Lens, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Yannick Cahuzac","matches_in_charge":9,"tenure_days":105,"ppm":1.78,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lille come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.253472222222222,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Lens come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.055555555555555,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.038,"defence":0.173,"effective_matches":12.5,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":0.184,"defence":0.057,"effective_matches":12.5,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; RC Lens work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.3,"shots":10.5,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":2.9,"corners_per_shot":0.278,"finishing_vs_xg":0.18},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":53.8,"shots":15.4,"xg_per_shot":0.114,"corners":6.3,"corners_per_shot":0.405,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"possession_gap":-5.5},"strength":0.219,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lille are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.18,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Lens are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"132 yellow cards in this referee's last 32 games, where 116 would be usual in this league, and 10 reds.","evidence":{"matches":32,"yellows_per_match":4.13,"reds_per_match":0.313,"league_yellows_per_match":3.63,"league_reds_per_match":0.194,"yellow_ratio":1.14,"red_ratio":1.61},"strength":0.122,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":3.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 30 km for RC Lens.","evidence":{"travel_km":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":17.9,"temperature_c":9,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19201505368885338},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Lille will struggle to find a winner in a local derby that looks destined for a low score. The home side have won only two of their last six, struggling to convert football into results. They are now missing a big chunk of their goals, which makes their task harder. Without Ayase Ueda, who has three goals in the last five games, they lose the player most likely to turn possession into a lead. Lens have three wins from their last six, yet they also lack punch. Missing Abdallah Sima and Odsonne Édouard robs them of three and two goals respectively. Both teams will struggle to create clear openings. The game will be cagey with few risks taken. Clinical finishing usually wins these, but both sides have left theirs in the infirmary.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6229,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":210510,"event_date":"2026-10-30T20:05:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":106,"home_team":"Lille","away_team_id":99,"away_team":"RC Lens","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":38.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3835,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210510,"event_date":"2026-10-30T20:05:00Z","home_team":"Lille","away_team":"RC Lens","polymarket_event_id":"1237509","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":449,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T05:57:08Z"}},"computed_at":1793352079,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#24226a","away":"#a71a1b"},"venue":{"name":"Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy","city":"Lille","capacity":50186},"pulled":[],"published":[]}