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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":8.041666666666666,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.156,"defence":-0.123,"effective_matches":12,"shrunk":0.4},"away":{"attack":0.018,"defence":-0.061,"effective_matches":12,"shrunk":0.4}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Stade Rennais work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53,"shots":17.8,"xg_per_shot":0.108,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.332,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.25},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.6,"shots":13.3,"xg_per_shot":0.086,"corners":2.5,"corners_per_shot":0.192,"finishing_vs_xg":0.11},"possession_gap":6.4},"strength":0.255,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Rennais have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.25,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Strasbourg are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"93 yellow cards in this referee's last 32 games, where 112 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":32,"yellows_per_match":2.91,"reds_per_match":0.094,"league_yellows_per_match":3.51,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":0.83,"red_ratio":0.47},"strength":0.156,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-3.9}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 703 km for RC Strasbourg.","evidence":{"travel_km":703},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 25 km/h wind.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":25.3,"temperature_c":11,"description":"rain"},"strength":0.08,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"both","pct":0.6}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1799293404707215},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"RC Strasbourg are in trouble, and not only on results. RC Strasbourg have been out-created in six of their last eight games. And they have faced six or more efforts on target in five of their last six games. They are getting opened up. On top of that, away from home, they have been out-created in four of their last five away games. Until RC Strasbourg sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5918,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":210507,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":97,"home_team":"Stade Rennais","away_team_id":112,"away_team":"RC Strasbourg","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":53.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5392,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210507,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:15:00Z","home_team":"Stade Rennais","away_team":"RC Strasbourg","polymarket_event_id":"1226610","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:57:11Z"}},"computed_at":1792828954,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed3324","away":"#1198ce"},"venue":{"name":"Roazhon Park","city":"Rennes","capacity":29778},"pulled":[],"published":[]}