{"id":210506,"league_id":6,"league":"Ligue 1","kickoff":1792781100,"home":"Stade Brestois","away":"Nice","home_id":105,"away_id":103,"venue_id":103,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.67,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.68,1.08],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"No call on Stade Brestois against Nice. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[],"lambda_home":1.683758923132976,"lambda_away":1.0758643881964762,"corner_rate":9.67,"card_rate":0.109,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.664,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":6027,"name":"Egil Selvik","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.688},{"id":4084,"name":"Bradley Locko","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.692},{"id":1726,"name":"Joris Chotard","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.716},{"id":1429,"name":"Gautier Lloris","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.623},{"id":1722,"name":"Kenny Lala","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.629},{"id":1727,"name":"Hugo Magnetti","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.583},{"id":1734,"name":"Lucas Tousart","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.455},{"id":1730,"name":"Pathé Mboup","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.689},{"id":1729,"name":"Kamory Doumbia","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.706},{"id":1956,"name":"Noah Edjouma","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.208},{"id":1731,"name":"Ludovic Ajorque","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.675},{"id":1735,"name":"Mama Baldé","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.369},{"id":6579,"name":"Joseph Nonge","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.29},{"id":3053,"name":"Mamady Diambou","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.278},{"id":1738,"name":"Luc Zogbé","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.251},{"id":4529,"name":"Ibrahim Yayiya Kante","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.228},{"id":38415,"name":"Mathis Lainé","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.226},{"id":29209,"name":"Djylian N'Guessan","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.171},{"id":1739,"name":"Justin Bourgault","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.039},{"id":8411,"name":"Mathieu Patouillet","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":27816,"name":"Evan Mailly","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":52148,"name":"Enzo Monchatre","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":1723,"name":"Brendan Chardonnet","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.7},"away":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":1485,"name":"Yehvann Diouf","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.691},{"id":36746,"name":"Xavier Mandza","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.773},{"id":13554,"name":"Youssouf Ndayishimiye","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.709},{"id":16690,"name":"Mohamed Abdelmonem","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.631},{"id":1489,"name":"Jonathan Clauss","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.772},{"id":8425,"name":"Everton Pereira","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.267},{"id":4339,"name":"Djibril Coulibaly","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.293},{"id":1504,"name":"Hicham Boudaoui","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.283},{"id":1492,"name":"Sofiane Diop","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.479},{"id":3527,"name":"Elye Wahi","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.548},{"id":24026,"name":"Nathan N'Goumou","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.305},{"id":2789,"name":"Gauthier Hein","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.632},{"id":1042,"name":"Axel Witsel","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.62},{"id":1842,"name":"Niels Nkounkou","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.549},{"id":1376,"name":"Mohamed Amoura","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.487},{"id":1497,"name":"Isak Jansson","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.258},{"id":12864,"name":"Teddy Boulhendi","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.251},{"id":4781,"name":"Hamza Koutoune","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.234},{"id":5219,"name":"Zoumana Diallo","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.22},{"id":2817,"name":"Alidu Seidu","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.208},{"id":205030,"name":"Aboulaye Camara","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.206},{"id":206723,"name":"Djelan Morana","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.188},{"id":15978,"name":"Issiaga Camara","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.183}],"confidence":0.664},"unavailable":[{"id":40563,"name":"Giovani Versini","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":1737,"name":"Raphaël Le Guen","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Broken Ankle"},{"id":1498,"name":"Ali Abdi","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":1486,"name":"Antoine Mendy","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":1471,"name":"Laurent Abergel","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":4514,"name":"Moise Bombito","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Leg Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":6027,"name":"Egil Selvik","side":"home"},{"id":4084,"name":"Bradley Locko","side":"home"},{"id":1726,"name":"Joris Chotard","side":"home"},{"id":1429,"name":"Gautier Lloris","side":"home"},{"id":1722,"name":"Kenny Lala","side":"home"},{"id":1727,"name":"Hugo Magnetti","side":"home"},{"id":1734,"name":"Lucas Tousart","side":"home"},{"id":1730,"name":"Pathé Mboup","side":"home"},{"id":1729,"name":"Kamory Doumbia","side":"home"},{"id":1956,"name":"Noah Edjouma","side":"home"},{"id":1731,"name":"Ludovic Ajorque","side":"home"},{"id":1735,"name":"Mama Baldé","side":"home"},{"id":6579,"name":"Joseph Nonge","side":"home"},{"id":3053,"name":"Mamady Diambou","side":"home"},{"id":1738,"name":"Luc Zogbé","side":"home"},{"id":4529,"name":"Ibrahim Yayiya Kante","side":"home"},{"id":38415,"name":"Mathis Lainé","side":"home"},{"id":29209,"name":"Djylian N'Guessan","side":"home"},{"id":1739,"name":"Justin Bourgault","side":"home"},{"id":8411,"name":"Mathieu Patouillet","side":"home"},{"id":27816,"name":"Evan Mailly","side":"home"},{"id":52148,"name":"Enzo Monchatre","side":"home"},{"id":1723,"name":"Brendan Chardonnet","side":"home"},{"id":217694,"name":"Angelo Bico","side":"home"},{"id":1737,"name":"Raphaël Le Guen","side":"home"},{"id":76077,"name":"Cheick Kante","side":"home"},{"id":75108,"name":"Noé Poillion","side":"home"},{"id":113829,"name":"Romain Cagnon","side":"home"},{"id":40563,"name":"Giovani Versini","side":"home"},{"id":217693,"name":"Yannis Rabrun Nellec","side":"home"},{"id":1728,"name":"Romain Del Castillo","side":"home"},{"id":1485,"name":"Yehvann Diouf","side":"away"},{"id":36746,"name":"Xavier Mandza","side":"away"},{"id":13554,"name":"Youssouf Ndayishimiye","side":"away"},{"id":16690,"name":"Mohamed Abdelmonem","side":"away"},{"id":1489,"name":"Jonathan Clauss","side":"away"},{"id":8425,"name":"Everton Pereira","side":"away"},{"id":4339,"name":"Djibril Coulibaly","side":"away"},{"id":1504,"name":"Hicham Boudaoui","side":"away"},{"id":1492,"name":"Sofiane Diop","side":"away"},{"id":3527,"name":"Elye Wahi","side":"away"},{"id":24026,"name":"Nathan N'Goumou","side":"away"},{"id":2789,"name":"Gauthier Hein","side":"away"},{"id":1042,"name":"Axel Witsel","side":"away"},{"id":1842,"name":"Niels Nkounkou","side":"away"},{"id":1376,"name":"Mohamed Amoura","side":"away"},{"id":1497,"name":"Isak Jansson","side":"away"},{"id":12864,"name":"Teddy Boulhendi","side":"away"},{"id":4781,"name":"Hamza Koutoune","side":"away"},{"id":5219,"name":"Zoumana Diallo","side":"away"},{"id":2817,"name":"Alidu Seidu","side":"away"},{"id":205030,"name":"Aboulaye Camara","side":"away"},{"id":206723,"name":"Djelan Morana","side":"away"},{"id":15978,"name":"Issiaga Camara","side":"away"},{"id":1498,"name":"Ali Abdi","side":"away"},{"id":1486,"name":"Antoine Mendy","side":"away"},{"id":4514,"name":"Moise Bombito","side":"away"},{"id":83871,"name":"Martin Ponsot","side":"away"},{"id":1499,"name":"Morgan Sanson","side":"away"},{"id":1471,"name":"Laurent Abergel","side":"away"},{"id":73822,"name":"Nassim Laarej","side":"away"},{"id":1491,"name":"Salis Abdul Samed","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":40563,"name":"Giovani Versini","side":"home","team":"Stade Brestois","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":3,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.005,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1737,"name":"Raphaël Le Guen","side":"home","team":"Stade Brestois","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Broken Ankle","expected_return":"2027-01-31","season":{"apps":5,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.036,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1729,"name":"Kamory Doumbia","side":"home","team":"Stade Brestois","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":7,"goals":4,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Le Havre","kickoff":1788633900,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.214,"country":{"team":"Mali","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":161,"country":0}},{"id":1731,"name":"Ludovic Ajorque","side":"home","team":"Stade Brestois","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":7,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Angers","kickoff":1791657900,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.129,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":176,"country":0}},{"id":1956,"name":"Noah Edjouma","side":"home","team":"Stade Brestois","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":2,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":11,"country":0}},{"id":1498,"name":"Ali Abdi","side":"away","team":"Nice","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-30","season":{"apps":4,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":{"team":"Tunisia","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782428400},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":1486,"name":"Antoine Mendy","side":"away","team":"Nice","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":"2027-05-31","season":{"apps":4,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.009,"country":{"team":"Senegal","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":1471,"name":"Laurent Abergel","side":"away","team":"Nice","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":"2027-04-30","season":{"apps":1,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.001,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":4514,"name":"Moise Bombito","side":"away","team":"Nice","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Leg Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":4},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":{"team":"Canada","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1783184400},"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":4339,"name":"Djibril Coulibaly","side":"away","team":"Nice","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"doubtful","reason":"Illness","expected_return":"2026-10-26","season":{"apps":7,"starts":6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.026,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":37,"country":0}},{"id":3527,"name":"Elye Wahi","side":"away","team":"Nice","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":6,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Le Mans","kickoff":1788633900,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.09,"country":{"team":"Côte d'Ivoire","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782838800},"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":163,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":105,"away":103},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":1},"below":{"w":2,"d":2,"l":1}},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":3},"below":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":1906,"name":"Julien Lachuer","vs":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1747508400,"score":"0-6","result":"L"}}},"away":{"id":404,"name":"Olivier Pantaloni","vs":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1770487200,"score":"0-2","result":"L"}}}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"1486":{"caps":23,"goals":0,"country":"Senegal","signed":null},"1498":{"caps":51,"goals":3,"country":"Tunisia","signed":null},"1729":{"caps":27,"goals":8,"country":"Mali","signed":null},"3527":{"caps":8,"goals":0,"country":"Côte d'Ivoire","signed":null},"4514":{"caps":30,"goals":0,"country":"Canada","signed":null},"40563":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Pau FC","fee":2000000,"at":1788307200}}}},"notable":[{"id":2810,"name":"Esteban Lepaul","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":2099,"name":"Lassine Sinayoko","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":4540,"name":"Amine Gouiri","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":3382,"name":"Casper Tengstedt","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":6412,"name":"Cameron Archer","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":749,"name":"Ferran Torres","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":1729,"name":"Kamory Doumbia","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":27966,"name":"Louis Mafouta","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":4513,"name":"Paris Brunner","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":37724,"name":"Adil Bourabaa","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":2101,"name":"Danny Namaso","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":24027,"name":"Ernest Nuamah","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":1414,"name":"Florian Thauvin","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":2244,"name":"Marquinhos","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":1412,"name":"Adrien Thomasson","goals":2,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 8","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":34,"home_wins":11,"draws":10,"away_wins":13,"home_goals":40,"away_goals":44,"avg_total_goals":2.4705882352941178,"home_win_rate":0.3235294117647059,"away_win_rate":0.38235294117647056,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Stade Brestois","date":"2026-02-01T16:15:00+00:00","home":"Nice","score":"2-2","event_id":1940,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":105,"home_team_id":103},{"away":"Nice","date":"2025-09-20T17:00:00+00:00","home":"Stade Brestois","score":"4-1","event_id":1801,"away_score":1,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":103,"home_team_id":105},{"away":"Stade Brestois","date":"2025-05-17T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Nice","score":"6-0","event_id":306344,"away_score":0,"home_score":6,"away_team_id":105,"home_team_id":103},{"away":"Nice","date":"2024-11-02T18:00:00+00:00","home":"Stade Brestois","score":"0-1","event_id":306128,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":103,"home_team_id":105},{"away":"Nice","date":"2024-02-04T16:05:00+00:00","home":"Stade Brestois","score":"0-0","event_id":311692,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":103,"home_team_id":105},{"away":"Stade Brestois","date":"2023-10-01T13:00:00+00:00","home":"Nice","score":"0-0","event_id":311570,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":105,"home_team_id":103},{"away":"Nice","date":"2023-04-16T13:00:00+00:00","home":"Stade Brestois","score":"1-0","event_id":316829,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":103,"home_team_id":105},{"away":"Stade Brestois","date":"2022-11-06T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Nice","score":"1-0","event_id":316657,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":105,"home_team_id":103},{"away":"Nice","date":"2022-01-09T12:00:00+00:00","home":"Stade Brestois","score":"0-3","event_id":320483,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":103,"home_team_id":105},{"away":"Stade Brestois","date":"2021-10-02T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Nice","score":"2-1","event_id":320370,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":105,"home_team_id":103}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":105,"position":10,"played":7,"points":9,"goal_diff":3,"team_name":"Stade Brestois","won":2,"drawn":3,"lost":2,"goals_for":13,"goals_against":10,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":103,"position":13,"played":7,"points":8,"goal_diff":-3,"team_name":"Nice","won":2,"drawn":2,"lost":3,"goals_for":6,"goals_against":9,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":2,"goals_against":1.5,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"DWLLDW","venue_ppg":1.25},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":0.83,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLDLWW","venue_ppg":0}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Brestois are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.041,"players":[{"player":"Raphaël Le Guen","role":"DEF","reason":"Broken Ankle","goal_share":0,"importance":0.036,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Giovani Versini","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.005,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":0},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nice are without 5 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":5,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.023,"players":[{"player":"Djibril Coulibaly","role":"MID","reason":"Illness","goal_share":0,"importance":0.013,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":13},{"player":"Antoine Mendy","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.009,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Laurent Abergel","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.001,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":13},{"player":"Ali Abdi","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Moise Bombito","role":"DEF","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":0},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.664,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.336,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":26,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":9,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":8,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":6,"gap_to_safety":1,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Julien Lachuer is 14 games into the job at Stade Brestois, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Julien Lachuer","matches_in_charge":14,"tenure_days":98,"ppm":1.14,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.6,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olivier Pantaloni is 7 games into the job at Nice, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Olivier Pantaloni","matches_in_charge":7,"tenure_days":70,"ppm":1.14,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.12,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Brestois come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nice come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.048,"defence":0.006,"effective_matches":11.7,"shrunk":0.41},"away":{"attack":-0.137,"defence":-0.006,"effective_matches":12.4,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Nice work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.9,"shots":19.2,"xg_per_shot":0.113,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.248,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.42},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.7,"shots":12,"xg_per_shot":0.099,"corners":4.1,"corners_per_shot":0.341,"finishing_vs_xg":0.14},"possession_gap":-3.8},"strength":0.153,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stade Brestois have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.42,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nice are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"100 yellow cards in this referee's last 32 games, where 112 would be usual in this league, and 4 reds.","evidence":{"matches":32,"yellows_per_match":3.13,"reds_per_match":0.125,"league_yellows_per_match":3.49,"league_reds_per_match":0.21,"yellow_ratio":0.9,"red_ratio":0.6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-2.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nice travel 1041 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":1041},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.4}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":14.6,"temperature_c":10,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.24353648306440684},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Brest should exploit Nice's weakened squad to secure a home win. Sitting 10th in the table, Brest have won two of their last six matches, matching 13th placed Nice. However, Nice travel badly and arrive missing five players in all. With Moise Bombito out with a leg problem, Nice lose defensive stability against Brest's front line. Noah Edjouma and Ludovic Ajorque will stretch this makeshift defence, whereas Elye Wahi lacks midfield service for Nice with Laurent Abergel sidelined until 30 April. Raphaël Le Guen is out until 31 January with a broken ankle problem for Brest, but their attack remains superior. After a 2-2 draw in their last meeting, Brest","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5558,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":210506,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":105,"home_team":"Stade Brestois","away_team_id":103,"away_team":"Nice","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":42.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4254,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210506,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:45:00Z","home_team":"Stade Brestois","away_team":"Nice","polymarket_event_id":"1196205","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-22T07:27:11Z"}},"computed_at":1792657895,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d01f26","away":"#ba9766"},"venue":{"name":"Stade Francis-Le Ble","city":"Brest","capacity":15097},"pulled":[],"published":[]}