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does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.108,"defence":-0.031,"effective_matches":12,"shrunk":0.4},"away":{"attack":-0.156,"defence":-0.034,"effective_matches":12,"shrunk":0.4}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique de Marseille average 9 points more possession than Le Havre, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":57.8,"shots":13.1,"xg_per_shot":0.094,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.389,"finishing_vs_xg":0.36},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.2,"shots":15.6,"xg_per_shot":0.088,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.34,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.12},"possession_gap":8.5},"strength":0.342,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.8}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique de Marseille have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.36,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Le Havre are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"147 yellow cards in this referee's last 43 games, where 151 would be usual in this league, and 8 reds.","evidence":{"matches":43,"yellows_per_match":3.42,"reds_per_match":0.186,"league_yellows_per_match":3.51,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":0.97,"red_ratio":0.92},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Le Havre travel 802 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":802},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 56 km/h wind.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":55.5,"temperature_c":16,"description":"rain"},"strength":0.4,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-3},{"channel":"corners","side":"both","pct":3}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1799293404707215},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Olympique de Marseille are in trouble, and not only on results. Olympique de Marseille have been out-created in six of their last ten games. As for the other side, Le Havre have scored only 5 in their last seven from chances that would usually bring about 10. The goals are coming. Until Olympique de Marseille sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5914,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":210503,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":98,"home_team":"Olympique de Marseille","away_team_id":102,"away_team":"Le Havre","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":60.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6033,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210503,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:15:00Z","home_team":"Olympique de Marseille","away_team":"Le Havre","polymarket_event_id":"1226607","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:57:11Z"}},"computed_at":1792828954,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#0a4376"},"venue":{"name":"CEPAC Vélodrome","city":"Marseille","capacity":67395},"pulled":[],"published":[]}