{"id":210501,"league_id":6,"league":"Ligue 1","kickoff":1792944900,"home":"Angers","away":"Lorient","home_id":107,"away_id":110,"venue_id":105,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.645,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.18,1.33],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"Nothing to take on Angers against Lorient. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[],"lambda_home":1.1828141758722732,"lambda_away":1.3324015154279734,"corner_rate":9.39,"card_rate":0.185,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.691,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":1124,"name":"Anthony Lopes","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.742},{"id":40571,"name":"Joseph Kalulu","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.547},{"id":1389,"name":"Jordan Lefort","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.557},{"id":4510,"name":"Emmanuel Biumla","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.285},{"id":1387,"name":"Carlens Arcus","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.556},{"id":5180,"name":"Branco Van den Boomen","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.718},{"id":1393,"name":"Yassin Belkhdim","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.686},{"id":1395,"name":"Amine Sbai","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.7},{"id":1422,"name":"Anthony Bermont","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.252},{"id":4785,"name":"Jim Allevinah","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.689},{"id":893,"name":"Amine El Ouazzani","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.623},{"id":1397,"name":"Lilian Raolisoa","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.378},{"id":1398,"name":"Prosper Peter","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.378},{"id":1399,"name":"Harouna Djibirin","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.285},{"id":21669,"name":"Maël Gernigon","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.279},{"id":23988,"name":"Bané Diatta","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.258},{"id":1391,"name":"Haris Belkebla","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.254},{"id":1394,"name":"Louis Mouton","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.179},{"id":1403,"name":"Marius Louër","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.166},{"id":1402,"name":"Oumar Pona","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":1386,"name":"Melvin Zinga","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":204400,"name":"Jules Bouffandeau","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.705},"away":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":1465,"name":"Yvon Mvogo","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.679},{"id":1472,"name":"Arsène Kouassi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.694},{"id":1467,"name":"Montassar Talbi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.717},{"id":1480,"name":"Nathaniel Adjei","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.717},{"id":38080,"name":"Alec Georgen","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":1477,"name":"Noah Cadiou","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.697},{"id":1473,"name":"Jean Victor Makengo","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.703},{"id":4325,"name":"Gabin Bernardeau","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.548},{"id":40738,"name":"Ibrahima Baldé","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.402},{"id":36569,"name":"Mamadou Koné","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.469},{"id":40670,"name":"Dembo Sylla","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.687},{"id":1470,"name":"Arthur Avom Ebong","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.514},{"id":1469,"name":"Théo Le Bris","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.394},{"id":36570,"name":"Isaak Touré","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.385},{"id":4819,"name":"Panos Katseris","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.293},{"id":8924,"name":"Souleymane Faye","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.25},{"id":27379,"name":"Nosa Edward Obaretin","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.23},{"id":1483,"name":"Aiyegun Tosin","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.166},{"id":1481,"name":"Bingourou Kamara","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04},{"id":29772,"name":"Srđan Kuzmić","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":13553,"name":"Daniel Semedo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.691},"unavailable":[{"id":66403,"name":"Mamadou Usman Simbakoli","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Groin Injury"},{"id":1388,"name":"Ousmane Camara","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Hamstring Injury"},{"id":8550,"name":"Bandiougou Fadiga","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Hamstring Injury"},{"id":5486,"name":"Isak Jensen","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Unknown"},{"id":7602,"name":"Noah Mbamba","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Hamstring Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":1124,"name":"Anthony Lopes","side":"home"},{"id":40571,"name":"Joseph Kalulu","side":"home"},{"id":1389,"name":"Jordan Lefort","side":"home"},{"id":4510,"name":"Emmanuel Biumla","side":"home"},{"id":1387,"name":"Carlens Arcus","side":"home"},{"id":5180,"name":"Branco Van den Boomen","side":"home"},{"id":1393,"name":"Yassin Belkhdim","side":"home"},{"id":1395,"name":"Amine Sbai","side":"home"},{"id":1422,"name":"Anthony Bermont","side":"home"},{"id":4785,"name":"Jim Allevinah","side":"home"},{"id":893,"name":"Amine El Ouazzani","side":"home"},{"id":1397,"name":"Lilian Raolisoa","side":"home"},{"id":1398,"name":"Prosper Peter","side":"home"},{"id":1399,"name":"Harouna Djibirin","side":"home"},{"id":21669,"name":"Maël Gernigon","side":"home"},{"id":23988,"name":"Bané Diatta","side":"home"},{"id":1391,"name":"Haris Belkebla","side":"home"},{"id":1394,"name":"Louis Mouton","side":"home"},{"id":1403,"name":"Marius Louër","side":"home"},{"id":1402,"name":"Oumar Pona","side":"home"},{"id":1386,"name":"Melvin Zinga","side":"home"},{"id":204400,"name":"Jules Bouffandeau","side":"home"},{"id":1388,"name":"Ousmane Camara","side":"home"},{"id":66403,"name":"Mamadou Usman Simbakoli","side":"home"},{"id":1465,"name":"Yvon Mvogo","side":"away"},{"id":1472,"name":"Arsène Kouassi","side":"away"},{"id":1467,"name":"Montassar Talbi","side":"away"},{"id":1480,"name":"Nathaniel Adjei","side":"away"},{"id":38080,"name":"Alec Georgen","side":"away"},{"id":1477,"name":"Noah Cadiou","side":"away"},{"id":1473,"name":"Jean Victor Makengo","side":"away"},{"id":4325,"name":"Gabin Bernardeau","side":"away"},{"id":40738,"name":"Ibrahima Baldé","side":"away"},{"id":36569,"name":"Mamadou Koné","side":"away"},{"id":40670,"name":"Dembo Sylla","side":"away"},{"id":1470,"name":"Arthur Avom Ebong","side":"away"},{"id":1469,"name":"Théo Le Bris","side":"away"},{"id":36570,"name":"Isaak Touré","side":"away"},{"id":4819,"name":"Panos Katseris","side":"away"},{"id":8924,"name":"Souleymane Faye","side":"away"},{"id":27379,"name":"Nosa Edward Obaretin","side":"away"},{"id":1483,"name":"Aiyegun Tosin","side":"away"},{"id":1481,"name":"Bingourou Kamara","side":"away"},{"id":29772,"name":"Srđan Kuzmić","side":"away"},{"id":13553,"name":"Daniel Semedo","side":"away"},{"id":4891,"name":"Formose Mendy","side":"away"},{"id":1484,"name":"Mohamed Bamba","side":"away"},{"id":5486,"name":"Isak Jensen","side":"away"},{"id":4820,"name":"Benjamin Leroy","side":"away"},{"id":8550,"name":"Bandiougou Fadiga","side":"away"},{"id":7602,"name":"Noah Mbamba","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":1388,"name":"Ousmane Camara","side":"home","team":"Angers","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":6,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Auxerre","kickoff":1788029100,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.053,"country":{"team":"Mali","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":null},{"id":66403,"name":"Mamadou Usman Simbakoli","side":"home","team":"Angers","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Groin Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":5,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":893,"name":"Amine El Ouazzani","side":"home","team":"Angers","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":6,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Auxerre","kickoff":1788029100,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.178,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":89,"country":0}},{"id":5486,"name":"Isak Jensen","side":"away","team":"Lorient","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Unknown","expected_return":"2026-11-07","season":{"apps":5,"starts":1,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Le Mans","kickoff":1789843500,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.047,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":7602,"name":"Noah Mbamba","side":"away","team":"Lorient","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":3,"starts":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Toulouse","kickoff":1789238700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.035,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":8550,"name":"Bandiougou Fadiga","side":"away","team":"Lorient","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1473,"name":"Jean Victor Makengo","side":"away","team":"Lorient","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":7,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Troyes","kickoff":1788029100,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.122,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}},{"id":4325,"name":"Gabin Bernardeau","side":"away","team":"Lorient","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Paris FC","kickoff":1791657900,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.056,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":79,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":107,"away":110},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":4},"below":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":2,"d":0,"l":0},"below":{"w":1,"d":2,"l":2}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":1834,"name":"Stephane Gilli","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1786203000,"score":"2-1","result":"W"}}},"away":{"id":379,"name":"Alexandre Dujeux","vs":{"w":16,"d":11,"l":10,"last":{"kickoff":1786203000,"score":"1-2","result":"L"}}}},"best_xi":[{"id":1124,"name":"Anthony Lopes","team_id":107,"position":"G","matches":7,"goals":0,"assists":0}],"players":{"1388":{"caps":11,"goals":0,"country":"Mali","signed":null},"4325":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Nice","fee":1000000,"at":1783555200}},"5486":{"caps":1,"goals":0,"country":"Denmark U19","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":2810,"name":"Esteban Lepaul","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":2099,"name":"Lassine Sinayoko","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":4540,"name":"Amine Gouiri","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":3382,"name":"Casper Tengstedt","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":6412,"name":"Cameron Archer","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":749,"name":"Ferran Torres","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":1729,"name":"Kamory Doumbia","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":27966,"name":"Louis Mafouta","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":4513,"name":"Paris Brunner","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":37724,"name":"Adil Bourabaa","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":2101,"name":"Danny Namaso","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":3527,"name":"Elye Wahi","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":24027,"name":"Ernest Nuamah","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":1414,"name":"Florian Thauvin","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":1731,"name":"Ludovic Ajorque","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 8","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":14,"home_wins":5,"draws":4,"away_wins":5,"home_goals":17,"away_goals":16,"avg_total_goals":2.357142857142857,"home_win_rate":0.35714285714285715,"away_win_rate":0.35714285714285715,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Lorient","date":"2026-08-08T15:30:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"2-1","event_id":219672,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":110,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Angers","date":"2026-02-15T16:15:00+00:00","home":"Lorient","score":"2-0","event_id":1955,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":110},{"away":"Lorient","date":"2025-10-26T16:15:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"2-0","event_id":1840,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":110,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Angers","date":"2023-02-05T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Lorient","score":"0-0","event_id":316738,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":110},{"away":"Lorient","date":"2023-01-01T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"1-2","event_id":316683,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":110,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Angers","date":"2022-01-16T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Lorient","score":"0-0","event_id":320498,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":110},{"away":"Lorient","date":"2021-11-21T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"1-0","event_id":320422,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":110,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Angers","date":"2021-05-02T13:00:00+00:00","home":"Lorient","score":"2-0","event_id":324305,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":107,"home_team_id":110},{"away":"Lorient","date":"2020-12-06T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"2-0","event_id":324084,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":110,"home_team_id":107},{"away":"Lorient","date":"2018-01-07T13:15:00+00:00","home":"Angers","score":"0-2","event_id":344049,"away_score":2,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":110,"home_team_id":107}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":107,"position":15,"played":7,"points":7,"goal_diff":-6,"team_name":"Angers","won":2,"drawn":1,"lost":4,"goals_for":9,"goals_against":15,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":110,"position":7,"played":7,"points":11,"goal_diff":1,"team_name":"Lorient","won":3,"drawn":2,"lost":2,"goals_for":7,"goals_against":6,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.17,"record":"2-1-3","goals_for":1.5,"goals_against":2.17,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"WLDWLL","venue_ppg":1},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.67,"record":"3-1-2","goals_for":1.17,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"LWDLWW","venue_ppg":1.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Angers are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.053,"players":[{"player":"Ousmane Camara","role":"DEF","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.053,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Mamadou Usman Simbakoli","role":"ATT","reason":"Groin Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lorient are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.286,"combined_importance":0.082,"players":[{"player":"Isak Jensen","role":"ATT","reason":"Unknown","goal_share":0.143,"importance":0.047,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Noah Mbamba","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0.143,"importance":0.035,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Bandiougou Fadiga","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.205,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.9},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.691,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.309,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":26,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":15,"points":7,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":11,"games_left":26,"gap_to_leader":3,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stephane Gilli is 7 games into the job at Angers, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Stephane Gilli","matches_in_charge":7,"tenure_days":65,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alexandre Dujeux has 29 matches in charge at Lorient, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Alexandre Dujeux","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":632,"ppm":2.07,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Angers come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.135416666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lorient come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.041666666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.137,"defence":-0.118,"effective_matches":12,"shrunk":0.4},"away":{"attack":-0.103,"defence":0.153,"effective_matches":11.4,"shrunk":0.41}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Angers work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.5,"shots":13.6,"xg_per_shot":0.121,"corners":6.4,"corners_per_shot":0.472,"finishing_vs_xg":0.1},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.1,"shots":9.9,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":2.4,"corners_per_shot":0.243,"finishing_vs_xg":0.31},"possession_gap":2.4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Angers are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.1,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lorient have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.31,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"64 yellow cards in this referee's last 22 games, where 77 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 22 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":22,"yellows_per_match":2.91,"reds_per_match":0.045,"league_yellows_per_match":3.51,"league_reds_per_match":0.201,"yellow_ratio":0.83,"red_ratio":0.23,"sample":22,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 216 km for Lorient.","evidence":{"travel_km":216},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":22.9,"temperature_c":11,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1799293404707215},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5916,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":210501,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":107,"home_team":"Angers","away_team_id":110,"away_team":"Lorient","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":38.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3893,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210501,"event_date":"2026-10-25T16:15:00Z","home_team":"Angers","away_team":"Lorient","polymarket_event_id":"1226613","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T05:57:11Z"}},"computed_at":1792828955,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#c49d6e","away":"#d56711"},"venue":{"name":"Stade Raymond Kopa","city":"Angers","capacity":17835},"pulled":[],"published":[]}