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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.003,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.193,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.541,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.459,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":15,"points":4,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":2,"points":11,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":2,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":-3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique Lyonnais lost the reverse fixture by 4 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":4,"beaten_side":"Olympique Lyonnais","reverse_score":"0-4","reverse_date":1779044400},"strength":0.48,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.6}]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Yannick Cahuzac is 1 game into the job at RC Lens. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Yannick Cahuzac","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":74,"ppm":3,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.1,"after_ppm":1.43,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":5.2}]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paulo Fonseca has 23 matches in charge at Olympique Lyonnais, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Paulo Fonseca","matches_in_charge":23,"tenure_days":188,"ppm":1.87,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Lens come in on 21 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":21,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":21},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique Lyonnais come in on 20 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":20,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":20},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.196,"defence":0.016,"effective_matches":11.1,"shrunk":0.42},"away":{"attack":0.087,"defence":0.121,"effective_matches":11.1,"shrunk":0.42}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.7,"shots":16.3,"xg_per_shot":0.117,"corners":6.6,"corners_per_shot":0.407,"finishing_vs_xg":0.43},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.4,"shots":13.9,"xg_per_shot":0.116,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.334,"finishing_vs_xg":0.05},"possession_gap":-0.6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Lens have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.43,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Olympique Lyonnais are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"90 yellow cards in this referee's last 24 games, where 83 would be usual in this league, and 9 reds. — though 24 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":24,"yellows_per_match":3.75,"reds_per_match":0.375,"league_yellows_per_match":3.46,"league_reds_per_match":0.185,"yellow_ratio":1.08,"red_ratio":2.03,"sample":24,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 544 km for Olympique Lyonnais.","evidence":{"travel_km":544},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":18.4,"temperature_c":15,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19505690282650348},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Olympique Lyonnais. Olympique Lyonnais are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. As for the other side, RC Lens are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. If that carries on, Olympique Lyonnais should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4356,"created_at":"2026-10-03T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":210487,"event_date":"2026-10-09T18:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":99,"home_team":"RC Lens","away_team_id":100,"away_team":"Olympique Lyonnais","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":39,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3904,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210487,"event_date":"2026-10-09T18:45:00Z","home_team":"RC Lens","away_team":"Olympique Lyonnais","polymarket_event_id":"1115789","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-08T15:27:12Z"}},"computed_at":1791473574,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#a71a1b","away":"#1112ab"},"venue":{"name":"Stade Bollaert-Delelis","city":"Lens","capacity":38223},"pulled":[],"published":[]}