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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nice are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"RC Strasbourg have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.29,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"116 yellow cards in this referee's last 31 games, where 107 would be usual in this league, and 10 reds.","evidence":{"matches":31,"yellows_per_match":3.74,"reds_per_match":0.323,"league_yellows_per_match":3.46,"league_reds_per_match":0.185,"yellow_ratio":1.08,"red_ratio":1.74},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":1.8}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.7,"temperature_c":25,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19505690282650348},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4745,"created_at":"2026-10-05T02:15:28Z","event":{"id":210485,"event_date":"2026-10-11T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":103,"home_team":"Nice","away_team_id":112,"away_team":"RC Strasbourg","league_id":6,"league_name":"Ligue 1"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":41.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4122,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210485,"event_date":"2026-10-11T13:00:00Z","home_team":"Nice","away_team":"RC Strasbourg","polymarket_event_id":"1124504","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-08T14:27:11Z"}},"computed_at":1791471329,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ba9766","away":"#1198ce"},"venue":{"name":"Allianz Riviera","city":"Nice","capacity":36178},"pulled":[],"published":[]}