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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":3,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":25,"gap_to_safety":-5,"gap_to_europe":17},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":19,"points":5,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":23,"gap_to_safety":-3,"gap_to_europe":15},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Davide Nicola is 13 games into the job at Venezia, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Davide Nicola","matches_in_charge":13,"tenure_days":245,"ppm":1.77,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.5,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paolo Zanetti is 4 games into the job at Udinese. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Paolo Zanetti","matches_in_charge":4,"tenure_days":91,"ppm":2.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.8,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.233,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Venezia come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.34375,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Udinese come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.114583333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.102,"defence":-0.117,"effective_matches":8.5,"shrunk":0.48},"away":{"attack":-0.116,"defence":-0.182,"effective_matches":14.8,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51.6,"shots":13.4,"xg_per_shot":0.108,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.286,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.78},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.9,"shots":14.8,"xg_per_shot":0.079,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.315,"finishing_vs_xg":0},"possession_gap":2.7},"strength":0.109,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Venezia have scored 9 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.78,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Udinese are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"57 yellow cards in this referee's last 17 games, where 58 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 17 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":17,"yellows_per_match":3.35,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":3.39,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":0.99,"red_ratio":0,"sample":17,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 98 km for Udinese.","evidence":{"travel_km":98},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.2,"temperature_c":9,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05582019373394462},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Venezia should finally find their shooting boots to win this basement battle. Although they sit bottom, the hosts create enough openings to have scored 13 goals rather than 7 in nine games. In contrast, Udinese often let opponents dictate play, as they have been the less creative side in six of their last nine outings. The visitors fire off 102 shots over their last six games, yet they only put 25 on target because they strike from poor positions. Without the muscle and finishing of Vakoun Issouf Bayo, who decided the last meeting with two goals in the 2-1 win, Udinese lack a focal point. Venezia are a different side at home: their superior chance creation will be the deciding factor.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6917,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":210166,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1285,"home_team":"Venezia","away_team_id":75,"away_team":"Udinese","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":42.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4241,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210166,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:45:00Z","home_team":"Venezia","away_team":"Udinese","polymarket_event_id":"1279806","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-11-05T08:57:35Z"}},"computed_at":1793887555,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0a7642","away":"#a18149"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Pierluigi Penzo","city":"Venice","capacity":11150},"pulled":[],"published":[]}