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Napoli","won":4,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":17,"goals_against":13,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":70,"position":1,"played":10,"points":28,"goal_diff":16,"team_name":"Lazio","won":9,"drawn":1,"lost":0,"goals_for":24,"goals_against":8,"group":null},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.17,"record":"2-1-3","goals_for":2,"goals_against":2.33,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"LWDWLL","venue_ppg":2},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.67,"record":"5-1-0","goals_for":3.17,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"won 5","sequence":"DWWWWW","venue_ppg":3}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SSC Napoli are without 9 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":9,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.059,"combined_importance":0.145,"players":[{"player":"Giovanni Di Lorenzo","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle 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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Leonardo Spinazzola","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Luca Marianucci","role":"DEF","reason":"yellow_or_red_card_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6}]},"strength":0.363,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.9}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lazio are without 3 players, and Mattia Zaccagni is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.174,"combined_importance":0.194,"players":[{"player":"Mattia Zaccagni","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.087,"importance":0.141,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5,"tags":["top_creator","best_performer","chance_creator","in_form"]},{"player":"Nuno Tavares","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.043,"importance":0.043,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":12,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Albert Guðmundsson","role":"ATT","reason":"Shoulder Injury","goal_share":0.043,"importance":0.01,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5}]},"strength":0.485,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.741,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.259,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":8,"points":14,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":28,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":20,"gap_to_europe":-8},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Massimiliano Allegri has 19 matches in charge at SSC Napoli, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Massimiliano Allegri","matches_in_charge":19,"tenure_days":109,"ppm":1.42,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gennaro Gattuso has 19 matches in charge at Lazio, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Gennaro Gattuso","matches_in_charge":19,"tenure_days":111,"ppm":2.63,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":2.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SSC Napoli come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.6458333333333335,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lazio come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.099,"defence":0.191,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.084,"defence":0.13,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.114,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.328,"finishing_vs_xg":0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54,"shots":13.8,"xg_per_shot":0.114,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.341,"finishing_vs_xg":0.84},"possession_gap":-3},"strength":0.12,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"SSC Napoli are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lazio have scored 10 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.84,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"84 yellow cards in this referee's last 18 games, where 61 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds. — though 18 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":18,"yellows_per_match":4.67,"reds_per_match":0.278,"league_yellows_per_match":3.39,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":1.38,"red_ratio":1.7,"sample":18,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 191 km for Lazio.","evidence":{"travel_km":191},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":14.8,"temperature_c":16,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05587109887311235},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"League leaders Lazio head into this fixture riding a brilliant wave of results with five wins from their last six, yet their attack is heavily flattered by an incredible hot streak that turns ordinary chances into a flood of goals. Meanwhile, the hosts are sliding badly through their poorest spell of chance creation and defensive vulnerability all season, compounded by a massive injury crisis across every single area of the pitch that strips them of key creators and defenders. Without their main playmaker to supply the usual creativity from the flank, the visitors lose the architect of their attacks. Expect the table toppers to weather their own missing personnel and outlast a sinking home side.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7376,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":210164,"event_date":"2026-11-08T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":62,"home_team":"SSC Napoli","away_team_id":70,"away_team":"Lazio","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":41.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4145,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210164,"event_date":"2026-11-08T11:30:00Z","home_team":"SSC Napoli","away_team":"Lazio","polymarket_event_id":"1288344","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":32077.9676,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.41,"best_ask":0.42,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.095,"SSC Napoli 0 - 0 SS Lazio":0.06,"SSC Napoli 0 - 1 SS Lazio":0.07,"SSC Napoli 0 - 2 SS Lazio":0.0465,"SSC Napoli 0 - 3 SS Lazio":0.0215,"SSC Napoli 0 - 4 SS Lazio":0.0085,"SSC Napoli 0 - 5 SS Lazio":0.008,"SSC Napoli 1 - 0 SS Lazio":0.085,"SSC Napoli 1 - 1 SS Lazio":0.12,"SSC Napoli 1 - 2 SS Lazio":0.075,"SSC Napoli 1 - 3 SS Lazio":0.0335,"SSC Napoli 1 - 4 SS Lazio":0.0105,"SSC Napoli 1 - 5 SS Lazio":0.005,"SSC Napoli 2 - 0 SS Lazio":0.065,"SSC Napoli 2 - 1 SS Lazio":0.09,"SSC Napoli 2 - 2 SS Lazio":0.0675,"SSC Napoli 2 - 3 SS Lazio":0.028,"SSC Napoli 2 - 4 SS Lazio":0.0085,"SSC Napoli 2 - 5 SS Lazio":0.008,"SSC Napoli 3 - 0 SS Lazio":0.033,"SSC Napoli 3 - 1 SS Lazio":0.044,"SSC Napoli 3 - 2 SS Lazio":0.0325,"SSC Napoli 3 - 3 SS Lazio":0.0145,"SSC Napoli 3 - 4 SS Lazio":0.006,"SSC Napoli 3 - 5 SS Lazio":0.085,"SSC Napoli 4 - 0 SS Lazio":0.012,"SSC Napoli 4 - 1 SS Lazio":0.016,"SSC Napoli 4 - 2 SS Lazio":0.011,"SSC Napoli 4 - 3 SS Lazio":0.0065,"SSC Napoli 4 - 4 SS Lazio":0.003,"SSC Napoli 4 - 5 SS Lazio":0.096,"SSC Napoli 5 - 0 SS Lazio":0.007,"SSC Napoli 5 - 1 SS Lazio":0.0085,"SSC Napoli 5 - 2 SS Lazio":0.006,"SSC Napoli 5 - 3 SS Lazio":0.0395,"SSC Napoli 5 - 4 SS Lazio":0.102,"SSC Napoli 5 - 5 SS Lazio":0.039},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T09:57:35Z"}},"computed_at":1794046765,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#42bff0"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Diego Armando Maradona","city":"Naples","capacity":54726},"pulled":[],"published":[]}