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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":15,"points":8,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":20,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":12},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":14,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":6},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alberto Gilardino is 7 games into the job at Parma, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Alberto Gilardino","matches_in_charge":7,"tenure_days":86,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":0.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Raffaele Palladino is 8 games into the job at Bologna, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Raffaele Palladino","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":92,"ppm":1.62,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Parma come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.885416666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.125,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.287,"defence":-0.051,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":-0.027,"defence":0.058,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":41.1,"shots":10,"xg_per_shot":0.084,"corners":3.9,"corners_per_shot":0.392,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.9,"shots":11.1,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.344,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.06},"possession_gap":-5.8},"strength":0.233,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Parma are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"68 yellow cards in this referee's last 25 games, where 85 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds. — though 25 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":25,"yellows_per_match":2.72,"reds_per_match":0.2,"league_yellows_per_match":3.39,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":0.8,"red_ratio":1.22,"sample":25,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 84 km for Bologna.","evidence":{"travel_km":84},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":10.9,"temperature_c":13,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05587109887311235},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Bologna should take the points here because their strong run of four wins from their last six matches is entirely justified by the underlying football. Parma are struggling badly, having been out-created in eight of their last ten outings and losing three of their last six. The visitors travel well and will dominate possession against a leaky defence that surrenders chances with alarming regularity. Without their influential creative midfielder, Parma lack the guile to unlock opponents, while the visitors will miss their absent winger's goals in the final third. Ultimately, the away side will control the tempo and convert their openings to secure another victory.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7023,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:22Z","event":{"id":210163,"event_date":"2026-11-07T17:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":74,"home_team":"Parma","away_team_id":66,"away_team":"Bologna","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":51.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5113,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210163,"event_date":"2026-11-07T17:00:00Z","home_team":"Parma","away_team":"Bologna","polymarket_event_id":"1284232","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":39590.6331,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.2,"best_ask":0.21,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.065,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.12,"Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 0 Bologna FC 1909":0.09,"Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 1 Bologna FC 1909":0.135,"Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 2 Bologna FC 1909":0.1,"Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 3 Bologna FC 1909":0.05,"Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 4 Bologna FC 1909":0.0135,"Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 5 Bologna FC 1909":0.0085,"Parma Calcio 1913 1 - 0 Bologna FC 1909":0.07,"Parma Calcio 1913 1 - 1 Bologna FC 1909":0.13,"Parma Calcio 1913 1 - 2 Bologna FC 1909":0.1,"Parma Calcio 1913 1 - 3 Bologna FC 1909":0.0485,"Parma Calcio 1913 1 - 4 Bologna FC 1909":0.0135,"Parma Calcio 1913 1 - 5 Bologna FC 1909":0.008,"Parma Calcio 1913 2 - 0 Bologna FC 1909":0.0305,"Parma Calcio 1913 2 - 1 Bologna FC 1909":0.051,"Parma Calcio 1913 2 - 2 Bologna FC 1909":0.045,"Parma Calcio 1913 2 - 3 Bologna FC 1909":0.0215,"Parma Calcio 1913 2 - 4 Bologna FC 1909":0.0105,"Parma Calcio 1913 2 - 5 Bologna FC 1909":0.0105,"Parma Calcio 1913 3 - 0 Bologna FC 1909":0.011,"Parma Calcio 1913 3 - 1 Bologna FC 1909":0.0115,"Parma Calcio 1913 3 - 2 Bologna FC 1909":0.009,"Parma Calcio 1913 3 - 3 Bologna FC 1909":0.0075,"Parma Calcio 1913 3 - 4 Bologna FC 1909":0.0035,"Parma Calcio 1913 3 - 5 Bologna FC 1909":0.115,"Parma Calcio 1913 4 - 0 Bologna FC 1909":0.008,"Parma Calcio 1913 4 - 1 Bologna FC 1909":0.0045,"Parma Calcio 1913 4 - 2 Bologna FC 1909":0.008,"Parma Calcio 1913 4 - 3 Bologna FC 1909":0.0085,"Parma Calcio 1913 4 - 4 Bologna FC 1909":0.035,"Parma Calcio 1913 4 - 5 Bologna FC 1909":0.107,"Parma Calcio 1913 5 - 0 Bologna FC 1909":0.1135,"Parma Calcio 1913 5 - 1 Bologna FC 1909":0.0555,"Parma Calcio 1913 5 - 2 Bologna FC 1909":0.0345,"Parma Calcio 1913 5 - 3 Bologna FC 1909":0.11,"Parma Calcio 1913 5 - 4 Bologna FC 1909":0.116,"Parma Calcio 1913 5 - 5 Bologna FC 1909":0.0495},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T11:57:27Z"}},"computed_at":1793981316,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#1b3f91","away":"#223d5e"},"venue":{"name":"Ennio Tardini","city":"Parma","capacity":27906},"pulled":[],"published":[]}