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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":7,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":21,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":13},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":11,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":17,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":9},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Local derby. Cards and both-teams-to-score are the reliable reads; total goals are not, since derbies run cagey about as often as they run open.","evidence":{"derby":true},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":13.5}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ivan Jurić has 61 matches in charge at Monza, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Ivan Jurić","matches_in_charge":61,"tenure_days":449,"ppm":1.7,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.4,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Maurizio Sarri is 14 games into the job at Atalanta, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Maurizio Sarri","matches_in_charge":14,"tenure_days":79,"ppm":1.29,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Monza come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":8,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.072,"defence":-0.14,"effective_matches":8.5,"shrunk":0.49},"away":{"attack":0.085,"defence":-0.062,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.6,"shots":13.7,"xg_per_shot":0.122,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.338,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.4,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.111,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.339,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.19},"possession_gap":-4.8},"strength":0.191,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Monza are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atalanta are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"14 yellow cards in this referee's last 5 games, where 17 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":5,"yellows_per_match":2.8,"reds_per_match":0.2,"league_yellows_per_match":3.39,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":0.83,"red_ratio":1.22,"sample":5,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 32 km for Atalanta.","evidence":{"travel_km":32},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":2.5,"temperature_c":14,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05587109887311235},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Local pride is on the line when these two meet, but Atalanta bring the better football into a fixture they should control. Though their recent results look rocky, they actually create superior chances and their upward trend points to dominance, even while missing their scoring touch up front and a muscle problem sidelines Giacomo Raspadori. Monza sit in the bottom three and their alarming slide is backed by poor underlying numbers, getting opened up far too easily at the back and severely leaking goals. Without their missing midfielder's calf problem to help stem the tide, the hosts will struggle to contain an opponent finding better rhythm on the road. It comes down to whether Monza can survive the barrage.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7335,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":210162,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1286,"home_team":"Monza","away_team_id":71,"away_team":"Atalanta","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":45.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4555,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210162,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Monza","away_team":"Atalanta","polymarket_event_id":"1279127","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":[{"price":0,"player":"Franco Mastantuono"},{"price":0,"player":"Viery"},{"price":1,"player":"Eybi Nije"},{"price":0,"player":"Alejandro Jiménez"},{"price":0,"player":"Cher Ndour"},{"price":0,"player":"Nicolò Fagioli"},{"price":1,"player":"João Mário Lopes"},{"price":0,"player":"Mateo Pellegrino"},{"price":0,"player":"Radu Drăgușin"},{"price":0,"player":"Marco Brescianini"},{"price":1,"player":"Nicola Zalewski"},{"price":0,"player":"Relja Obrić"},{"price":0,"player":"Thomas Kristensen"},{"price":0,"player":"Lorenzo Bernasconi"},{"price":1,"player":"Charles De Ketelaere"},{"price":0,"player":"Éderson"},{"price":0,"player":"Gianluca Gaetano"},{"price":0,"player":"Nikola Krstović"},{"price":0,"player":"Eljif Elmas"},{"price":0,"player":"Davide Zappacosta"}],"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-11-07T09:57:35Z"}},"computed_at":1794046766,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d51137","away":"#2061ab"},"venue":{"name":"U-Power Stadium","city":"Monza","capacity":17102},"pulled":[],"published":[]}