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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.009,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Jayden Addai","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.34,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.727,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.273,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":2,"points":25,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":3,"gap_to_safety":17,"gap_to_europe":-5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":23,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":15,"gap_to_europe":-3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Local derby. Cards and both-teams-to-score are the reliable reads; total goals are not, since derbies run cagey about as often as they run open.","evidence":{"derby":true},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":13.5}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 3-4, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cristian Chivu has 30 matches in charge at Inter, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Cristian Chivu","matches_in_charge":30,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":2.3,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cesc Fàbregas has 28 matches in charge at Como, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Cesc Fàbregas","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":217,"ppm":1.86,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Inter come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Como come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.392,"defence":0.163,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.158,"defence":0.23,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":57.7,"shots":20.2,"xg_per_shot":0.12,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.281,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.08},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":59.9,"shots":18,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":5.2,"corners_per_shot":0.287,"finishing_vs_xg":0.7},"possession_gap":-2.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Inter are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Como have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.7,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"73 yellow cards in this referee's last 26 games, where 88 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds. — though 26 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":26,"yellows_per_match":2.81,"reds_per_match":0.115,"league_yellows_per_match":3.39,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":0.83,"red_ratio":0.71,"sample":26,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 38 km for Como.","evidence":{"travel_km":38},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.1,"temperature_c":14,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05587109887311235},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results only tell half of this one, and the other half is all Como. Como have created the better chances in eight of their last ten games. And they are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. As for the other side, Inter have created the better chances in seven of their last nine games. That is the pattern to trust here, and it favours Como.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7238,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":210161,"event_date":"2026-11-08T17:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":77,"home_team":"Inter","away_team_id":69,"away_team":"Como","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":50.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5036,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210161,"event_date":"2026-11-08T17:00:00Z","home_team":"Inter","away_team":"Como","polymarket_event_id":"1289726","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":30151.903,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.5,"best_ask":0.51,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":-0.095,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.1,"FC Internazionale Milano 0 - 0 Como 1907":0.0375,"FC Internazionale Milano 0 - 1 Como 1907":0.045,"FC Internazionale Milano 0 - 2 Como 1907":0.033,"FC Internazionale Milano 0 - 3 Como 1907":0.019,"FC Internazionale Milano 0 - 4 Como 1907":0.0115,"FC Internazionale Milano 0 - 5 Como 1907":0.034,"FC Internazionale Milano 1 - 0 Como 1907":0.07,"FC Internazionale Milano 1 - 1 Como 1907":0.1,"FC Internazionale Milano 1 - 2 Como 1907":0.065,"FC Internazionale Milano 1 - 3 Como 1907":0.028,"FC Internazionale Milano 1 - 4 Como 1907":0.009,"FC Internazionale Milano 1 - 5 Como 1907":0.0045,"FC Internazionale Milano 2 - 0 Como 1907":0.065,"FC Internazionale Milano 2 - 1 Como 1907":0.095,"FC Internazionale Milano 2 - 2 Como 1907":0.07,"FC Internazionale Milano 2 - 3 Como 1907":0.03,"FC Internazionale Milano 2 - 4 Como 1907":0.0125,"FC Internazionale Milano 2 - 5 Como 1907":0.0045,"FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 0 Como 1907":0.04,"FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 1 Como 1907":0.065,"FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 2 Como 1907":0.045,"FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 3 Como 1907":0.0205,"FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 4 Como 1907":0.008,"FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 5 Como 1907":0.0245,"FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 0 Como 1907":0.022,"FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 1 Como 1907":0.028,"FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 2 Como 1907":0.019,"FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 3 Como 1907":0.012,"FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 4 Como 1907":0.0045,"FC Internazionale Milano 4 - 5 Como 1907":0.119,"FC Internazionale Milano 5 - 0 Como 1907":0.009,"FC Internazionale Milano 5 - 1 Como 1907":0.0145,"FC Internazionale Milano 5 - 2 Como 1907":0.0105,"FC Internazionale Milano 5 - 3 Como 1907":0.0055,"FC Internazionale Milano 5 - 4 Como 1907":0.144,"FC Internazionale Milano 5 - 5 Como 1907":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T04:57:36Z"}},"computed_at":1794046772,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c2596","away":"#104570"},"venue":{"name":"San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza","city":"Milano","capacity":75817},"pulled":[],"published":[]}