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Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":4}]},"strength":0.627,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.9}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.732,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.268,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":13,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":5,"gap_to_europe":7},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":21,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":13,"gap_to_europe":-1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Daniele De Rossi has 26 matches in charge at Genoa, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Daniele De 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form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.165,"defence":0.062,"effective_matches":14.6,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.115,"defence":0.087,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan average 12 points more possession than Genoa, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.2,"shots":12.6,"xg_per_shot":0.08,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.363,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.09},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":57.1,"shots":11.3,"xg_per_shot":0.136,"corners":3.5,"corners_per_shot":0.311,"finishing_vs_xg":0.22},"possession_gap":-11.9},"strength":0.477,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Genoa are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.09,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.22,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"163 yellow cards in this referee's last 42 games, where 142 would be usual in this league, and 14 reds.","evidence":{"matches":42,"yellows_per_match":3.88,"reds_per_match":0.333,"league_yellows_per_match":3.39,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":1.14,"red_ratio":2.04},"strength":0.13,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":3.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 119 km for AC Milan.","evidence":{"travel_km":119},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":20.7,"temperature_c":13,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05587109887311235},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"AC Milan will edge a tight battle here because their hosts are flattering themselves with recent wins while playing poorly. Genoa look a different side at home, yet their last four matches tell a worse story through the chances they create and concede. Milan bring heavy legs into their fourth outing in a fortnight, missing the creator who supplies their chances and the entire spine of their defence, meaning their build-up suffers badly. The visitors still win this because Daniele De Rossi has never beaten them in three tries, and a busy schedule decides it when Milan outlast their fading opponents.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7338,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":210160,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":59,"home_team":"Genoa","away_team_id":63,"away_team":"AC Milan","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":52.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5209,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210160,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Genoa","away_team":"AC Milan","polymarket_event_id":"1288965","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":31008.8243,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.19,"best_ask":0.2,"change_1d":-0.01,"change_1wk":-0.075,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.09,"Genoa CFC 0 - 0 AC Milan":0.09,"Genoa CFC 0 - 1 AC Milan":0.135,"Genoa CFC 0 - 2 AC Milan":0.1,"Genoa CFC 0 - 3 AC Milan":0.05,"Genoa CFC 0 - 4 AC Milan":0.021,"Genoa CFC 0 - 5 AC Milan":0.0075,"Genoa CFC 1 - 0 AC Milan":0.07,"Genoa CFC 1 - 1 AC Milan":0.13,"Genoa CFC 1 - 2 AC Milan":0.1,"Genoa CFC 1 - 3 AC Milan":0.049,"Genoa CFC 1 - 4 AC Milan":0.0105,"Genoa CFC 1 - 5 AC Milan":0.013,"Genoa CFC 2 - 0 AC Milan":0.029,"Genoa CFC 2 - 1 AC Milan":0.053,"Genoa CFC 2 - 2 AC Milan":0.0495,"Genoa CFC 2 - 3 AC Milan":0.025,"Genoa CFC 2 - 4 AC Milan":0.0095,"Genoa CFC 2 - 5 AC Milan":0.004,"Genoa CFC 3 - 0 AC Milan":0.006,"Genoa CFC 3 - 1 AC Milan":0.0135,"Genoa CFC 3 - 2 AC Milan":0.0095,"Genoa CFC 3 - 3 AC Milan":0.0075,"Genoa CFC 3 - 4 AC Milan":0.004,"Genoa CFC 3 - 5 AC Milan":0.08,"Genoa CFC 4 - 0 AC Milan":0.0035,"Genoa CFC 4 - 1 AC Milan":0.004,"Genoa CFC 4 - 2 AC Milan":0.003,"Genoa CFC 4 - 3 AC Milan":0.004,"Genoa CFC 4 - 4 AC Milan":0.0165,"Genoa CFC 4 - 5 AC Milan":0.1075,"Genoa CFC 5 - 0 AC Milan":0.017,"Genoa CFC 5 - 1 AC Milan":0.0165,"Genoa CFC 5 - 2 AC Milan":0.017,"Genoa CFC 5 - 3 AC Milan":0.08,"Genoa CFC 5 - 4 AC Milan":0.1065,"Genoa CFC 5 - 5 AC Milan":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T09:57:35Z"}},"computed_at":1794046767,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#cd1311","away":"#ca1022"},"venue":{"name":"Luigi Ferraris","city":"Genoa","capacity":33205},"pulled":[],"published":[]}