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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":27,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":8,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":20,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":12},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":17,"games_left":27,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paolo Vanoli has 22 matches in charge at Fiorentina, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Paolo Vanoli","matches_in_charge":22,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":1.68,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Luciano Spalletti has 30 matches in charge at Juventus, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Luciano Spalletti","matches_in_charge":30,"tenure_days":217,"ppm":1.93,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fiorentina come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.09375,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.029,"defence":-0.047,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.04,"defence":0.283,"effective_matches":14.7,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Juventus average 10 points more possession than Fiorentina, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it; Juventus work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.7,"shots":15.8,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.295,"finishing_vs_xg":0.26},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.8,"shots":14.2,"xg_per_shot":0.101,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.429,"finishing_vs_xg":0.23},"possession_gap":-10.2},"strength":0.407,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.1}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fiorentina have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.26,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Juventus are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"131 yellow cards in this referee's last 35 games, where 119 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds.","evidence":{"matches":35,"yellows_per_match":3.74,"reds_per_match":0.143,"league_yellows_per_match":3.39,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":1.1,"red_ratio":0.87},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":2.3}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 325 km for Juventus.","evidence":{"travel_km":325},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":13.4,"temperature_c":16,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05587109887311235},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results here are not telling the whole story. Fiorentina are happy without the ball: in two of the four games they had less of it, they still made the better chances. On top of that, they are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7213,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":210159,"event_date":"2026-11-08T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":68,"home_team":"Fiorentina","away_team_id":73,"away_team":"Juventus","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":44.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4487,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210159,"event_date":"2026-11-08T19:45:00Z","home_team":"Fiorentina","away_team":"Juventus","polymarket_event_id":"1290827","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":55231.1049,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.27,"best_ask":0.28,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":0.035,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.11,"ACF Fiorentina 0 - 0 Juventus FC":0.06,"ACF Fiorentina 0 - 1 Juventus FC":0.095,"ACF Fiorentina 0 - 2 Juventus FC":0.07,"ACF Fiorentina 0 - 3 Juventus FC":0.04,"ACF Fiorentina 0 - 4 Juventus FC":0.008,"ACF Fiorentina 0 - 5 Juventus FC":0.007,"ACF Fiorentina 1 - 0 Juventus FC":0.07,"ACF Fiorentina 1 - 1 Juventus FC":0.125,"ACF Fiorentina 1 - 2 Juventus FC":0.095,"ACF Fiorentina 1 - 3 Juventus FC":0.05,"ACF Fiorentina 1 - 4 Juventus FC":0.011,"ACF Fiorentina 1 - 5 Juventus FC":0.009,"ACF Fiorentina 2 - 0 Juventus FC":0.0405,"ACF Fiorentina 2 - 1 Juventus FC":0.07,"ACF Fiorentina 2 - 2 Juventus FC":0.065,"ACF Fiorentina 2 - 3 Juventus FC":0.0325,"ACF Fiorentina 2 - 4 Juventus FC":0.011,"ACF Fiorentina 2 - 5 Juventus FC":0.0055,"ACF Fiorentina 3 - 0 Juventus FC":0.017,"ACF Fiorentina 3 - 1 Juventus FC":0.026,"ACF Fiorentina 3 - 2 Juventus FC":0.023,"ACF Fiorentina 3 - 3 Juventus FC":0.014,"ACF Fiorentina 3 - 4 Juventus FC":0.006,"ACF Fiorentina 3 - 5 Juventus FC":0.1,"ACF Fiorentina 4 - 0 Juventus FC":0.006,"ACF Fiorentina 4 - 1 Juventus FC":0.01,"ACF Fiorentina 4 - 2 Juventus FC":0.0075,"ACF Fiorentina 4 - 3 Juventus FC":0.005,"ACF Fiorentina 4 - 4 Juventus FC":0.0245,"ACF Fiorentina 4 - 5 Juventus FC":0.109,"ACF Fiorentina 5 - 0 Juventus FC":0.026,"ACF Fiorentina 5 - 1 Juventus FC":0.01,"ACF Fiorentina 5 - 2 Juventus FC":0.034,"ACF Fiorentina 5 - 3 Juventus FC":0.1,"ACF Fiorentina 5 - 4 Juventus FC":0.107,"ACF Fiorentina 5 - 5 Juventus FC":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T07:57:37Z"}},"computed_at":1794046775,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#59318a","away":"#404040"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Artemio Franchi","city":"Florence","capacity":43147},"pulled":[],"published":[]}