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motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Eusebio Di Francesco has 24 matches in charge at Lecce, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Eusebio Di Francesco","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":210,"ppm":1.29,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Daniele De Rossi has 25 matches in charge at Genoa, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Daniele De Rossi","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":210,"ppm":1.24,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Genoa come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.8854166666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.163,"defence":-0.142,"effective_matches":14.3,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":-0.18,"defence":0.056,"effective_matches":14.2,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":42,"shots":12.7,"xg_per_shot":0.125,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.379,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.26},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.5,"shots":13.6,"xg_per_shot":0.076,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.367,"finishing_vs_xg":0.05},"possession_gap":-2.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lecce have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.26,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Genoa are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.05,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"59 yellow cards in this referee's last 20 games, where 67 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds. — though 20 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":20,"yellows_per_match":2.95,"reds_per_match":0.25,"league_yellows_per_match":3.36,"league_reds_per_match":0.16,"yellow_ratio":0.88,"red_ratio":1.56,"sample":20,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Genoa travel 885 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":885},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":20.5,"temperature_c":14,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.06679842521150141},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Lecce are finally finding their rhythm despite recent results. While they have lost four of their last six, their underlying football tells a much better story. They have created better chances across their last four games, yet they are scoring fewer than their play deserves. They have netted 10 times when they should have 16. Genoa travel badly but have won three of their last six. Lecce must cope without Lassana Coulibaly, who provides the drive in the middle. Losing his goals and the creativity of Ivan Ilić leaves them thin. Without those key creators, Lecce will struggle to turn their superior chance creation into a result. Finishing determines this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6514,"created_at":"2026-10-26T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":210154,"event_date":"2026-11-01T17:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":60,"home_team":"Lecce","away_team_id":59,"away_team":"Genoa","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":39.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3919,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210154,"event_date":"2026-11-01T17:00:00Z","home_team":"Lecce","away_team":"Genoa","polymarket_event_id":"1247225","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-31T14:57:32Z"}},"computed_at":1793524171,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#cd1311"},"venue":{"name":"Via del Mare","city":"Lecce","capacity":40800},"pulled":[],"published":[]}