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faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.227,"defence":-0.208,"effective_matches":7.2,"shrunk":0.53},"away":{"attack":-0.034,"defence":-0.023,"effective_matches":14.2,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.3,"shots":19,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":6.2,"corners_per_shot":0.325,"finishing_vs_xg":0.58},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.9,"shots":11.2,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.343,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"possession_gap":-3.6},"strength":0.143,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Frosinone have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.58,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Torino are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"19 yellow cards in this referee's last 8 games, where 27 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 8 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":8,"yellows_per_match":2.38,"reds_per_match":0.125,"league_yellows_per_match":3.36,"league_reds_per_match":0.16,"yellow_ratio":0.71,"red_ratio":0.78,"sample":8,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 596 km for Torino.","evidence":{"travel_km":596},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.6,"temperature_c":17,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.06679842521150141},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Torino should finally break their winless run against the top sides because Frosinone are far too vulnerable. Frosinone might sit 6th, but they are conceding far too many clean sights of goal. In almost all their recent matches, goalkeepers have stayed busy defending six or more strikes. Torino are moving in the opposite direction: they are engineering much better opportunities now. Losing a goal-scoring midfielder to a muscle problem thins the middle, yet they should still dominate a porous defense. Frosinone remain dangerous at home, often relying on Raimondo to paper over the cracks. He is in fine form after his hat-trick in the 4-2 win on 16 October. Torino's ability to capitalize on those defensive gaps decides","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6593,"created_at":"2026-10-26T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":210151,"event_date":"2026-11-01T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1277,"home_team":"Frosinone","away_team_id":78,"away_team":"Torino","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.441,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210151,"event_date":"2026-11-01T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Frosinone","away_team":"Torino","polymarket_event_id":"1246464","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-31T14:57:32Z"}},"computed_at":1793524136,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#1a4e9a","away":"#8a221a"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Benito Stirpe","city":"Frosinone","capacity":16227},"pulled":[],"published":[]}