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Venezia have made four changes from the side expected, with Ridgeciano Haps, Toma Bašić and Kike Pérez out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":3,"out":["Álex Valle","Ivan Smolčić","Máximo Perrone"],"in":["Kaiki","Luis Milla","Samuele Ricci"]},"away":{"n":4,"out":["Ridgeciano Haps","Toma Bašić","Kike Pérez","John Yeboah"],"in":["Gianluca Busio","Þórir Jóhann Helgason","Pasquale Mazzocchi","Lion Lauberbach"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":20,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":15,"gap_to_europe":-3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":3,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":22,"gap_to_safety":-2,"gap_to_europe":14},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cesc Fàbregas has 26 matches in charge at Como, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Cesc Fàbregas","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":209,"ppm":1.77,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Davide Nicola is 12 games into the job at Venezia, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Davide Nicola","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":239,"ppm":1.92,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.5,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Como come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.65625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":4.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Venezia come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.75,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.184,"defence":0.198,"effective_matches":14.3,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":-0.064,"defence":-0.142,"effective_matches":7.8,"shrunk":0.51}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59.4,"shots":18.3,"xg_per_shot":0.102,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.3,"finishing_vs_xg":0.39},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54.2,"shots":14.8,"xg_per_shot":0.111,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.313,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.72},"possession_gap":5.2},"strength":0.209,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Como have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.39,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Venezia have scored 9 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.72,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"19 yellow cards in this referee's last 5 games, where 17 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":5,"yellows_per_match":3.8,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":3.36,"league_reds_per_match":0.16,"yellow_ratio":1.13,"red_ratio":0,"sample":5,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 260 km for Venezia.","evidence":{"travel_km":260},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.1,"temperature_c":16,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.06679842521150141},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6636,"created_at":"2026-10-26T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":210150,"event_date":"2026-11-01T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":69,"home_team":"Como","away_team_id":1285,"away_team":"Venezia","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":73.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.737,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210150,"event_date":"2026-11-01T11:30:00Z","home_team":"Como","away_team":"Venezia","polymarket_event_id":"1245972","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T20:57:22Z"}},"computed_at":1793531472,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Como will take the points here by turning territorial dominance into sharp attacking openings. The hosts dominate possession in most matches and forge superior chances with regularity, backed by a strong home run where they always out-create their visitors. Venezia sit at the bottom and travel poorly, having dropped four of their last six fixtures. Yet their underlying numbers tell a different story because they have netted only 7 times from opportunities that deserve double that output, meaning a sharp correction is looming. Como must cope without the creator of those openings, handing the visitors a lifeline. Fatigue could also bite the hosts during their fourth outing in a fortnight. Ultimately, the visitors will finally find the net for their good work, but Como have enough to outscore them.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Como are without 6 players, and Assane Diao is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":6,"measured":5,"combined_goal_share":0.176,"combined_importance":0.222,"players":[{"player":"Assane Diao","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.118,"importance":0.148,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["chance_creator"]},{"player":"Mattia Liberali","role":"ATT","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0.059,"importance":0.049,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":2},{"player":"Moise Kean","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.015,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":2},{"player":"Jesús Rodriguez","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.01,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Jayden Addai","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Trevoh Chalobah","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.555,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-2.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.6}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed. Como have made three changes from the side expected, with Álex Valle, Ivan Smolčić and Máximo Perrone out of the eleven. Venezia have made four changes from the side expected, with Ridgeciano Haps, Toma Bašić and Kike Pérez out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":3,"out":["Álex Valle","Ivan Smolčić","Máximo Perrone"],"in":["Kaiki","Luis Milla","Samuele Ricci"]},"away":{"n":4,"out":["Ridgeciano Haps","Toma Bašić","Kike Pérez","John Yeboah"],"in":["Gianluca Busio","Þórir Jóhann Helgason","Pasquale Mazzocchi","Lion Lauberbach"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Davide Nicola is 12 games into the job at Venezia, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Davide Nicola","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":239,"ppm":1.92,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.5,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"live_minute":77,"colors":{"home":"#104570","away":"#0a7642"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia","city":"Como","capacity":12064},"pulled":[],"published":[]}