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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":11,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":7,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":10},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Raffaele Palladino is 7 games into the job at Bologna, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Raffaele Palladino","matches_in_charge":7,"tenure_days":85,"ppm":1.43,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ivan Jurić has 60 matches in charge at Monza, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Ivan Jurić","matches_in_charge":60,"tenure_days":441,"ppm":1.73,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.4,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.038,"defence":0.067,"effective_matches":14.4,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":0.073,"defence":-0.12,"effective_matches":7.9,"shrunk":0.5}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.7,"shots":11.2,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.33,"finishing_vs_xg":0.1},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.6,"shots":13.8,"xg_per_shot":0.116,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.343,"finishing_vs_xg":0.15},"possession_gap":1.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.1,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Monza are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.15,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 199 km for Monza.","evidence":{"travel_km":199},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.6,"temperature_c":19,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.06681210974106135},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Expect Bologna to break down a collapsing Monza defense. Monza are heading in the wrong direction, giving up high-quality opportunities while struggling to create anything meaningful across their last four games. They allow six or more shots on target in four of six outings, resulting in four defeats over that span. Bologna have grabbed three wins from six, but an oddly poor home record alongside a missing chunk of goals due to Orsolini's injury leaves them vulnerable. Monza's only real threat comes from Gustavo Varela, who has ten goals this season and scored in three consecutive matches. Containing him will decide this match.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6408,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":210149,"event_date":"2026-10-31T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":66,"home_team":"Bologna","away_team_id":1286,"away_team":"Monza","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":55.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5535,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210149,"event_date":"2026-10-31T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Bologna","away_team":"Monza","polymarket_event_id":"1240940","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-28T16:27:24Z"}},"computed_at":1793370671,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#223d5e","away":"#d51137"},"venue":{"name":"Renato Dall'Ara","city":"Bologna","capacity":36532},"pulled":[],"published":[]}