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read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Massimiliano Alvini has 56 matches in charge at Frosinone, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Massimiliano Alvini","matches_in_charge":56,"tenure_days":439,"ppm":2.02,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Eusebio Di Francesco has 23 matches in charge at Lecce, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Eusebio Di Francesco","matches_in_charge":23,"tenure_days":207,"ppm":1.35,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Frosinone come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.145833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lecce come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.020833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.147,"defence":-0.217,"effective_matches":6.3,"shrunk":0.56},"away":{"attack":-0.158,"defence":-0.086,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Lecce work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.5,"shots":18.3,"xg_per_shot":0.093,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.301,"finishing_vs_xg":0.37},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":43,"shots":12.4,"xg_per_shot":0.129,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.409,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.19},"possession_gap":2.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Frosinone have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.37,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lecce are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"45 yellow cards in this referee's last 12 games, where 40 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds. — though 12 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":12,"yellows_per_match":3.75,"reds_per_match":0.5,"league_yellows_per_match":3.35,"league_reds_per_match":0.163,"yellow_ratio":1.12,"red_ratio":3.07,"sample":12,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 435 km for Lecce.","evidence":{"travel_km":435},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":1.3,"temperature_c":18,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05110255936940921},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Lecce will shatter Frosinone's fortunate run here. Frosinone claimed victory in three of their last six, but the table lies. They allowed 14 goals across their previous nine matches when giving away opportunities that usually cost 20, leaning on their goalkeeper and good luck. Opponents landed six or more efforts on target against them in four of their last six games as their back line splits open. Meanwhile, Lecce managed 9 goals in nine fixtures from moves that normally net 14, meaning their finishing will catch up. Frosinone lose Florian Grillitsch to a groin problem, leaving their central midfield exposed. Antonio Raimondo's eight goals keep Frosinone dangerous, but Lecce's underlying creative power","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6201,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":210140,"event_date":"2026-10-29T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1277,"home_team":"Frosinone","away_team_id":60,"away_team":"Lecce","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":56.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5682,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210140,"event_date":"2026-10-29T17:30:00Z","home_team":"Frosinone","away_team":"Lecce","polymarket_event_id":"1231199","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-26T04:57:21Z"}},"computed_at":1793281233,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#1a4e9a","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Benito Stirpe","city":"Frosinone","capacity":16227},"pulled":[],"published":[]}