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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":29,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":19,"points":4,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":21,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":10},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":12,"points":10,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":5,"gap_to_europe":4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paolo Vanoli has 20 matches in charge at Fiorentina, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Paolo 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evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.8,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.099,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.294,"finishing_vs_xg":0.15},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.6,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.322,"finishing_vs_xg":0.06},"possession_gap":-2.8},"strength":0.113,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.05110255936940921},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6194,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":210139,"event_date":"2026-10-29T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":68,"home_team":"Fiorentina","away_team_id":71,"away_team":"Atalanta","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":42,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4197,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210139,"event_date":"2026-10-29T19:45:00Z","home_team":"Fiorentina","away_team":"Atalanta","polymarket_event_id":"1231789","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-26T04:57:21Z"}},"computed_at":1793281236,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Atalanta take this one by a comfortable margin because their recent chance creation completely outstrips a sliding home side. Even though the visitors are missing almost a full team across every department, their attack keeps climbing sharply and they have generated much better opportunities in four recent outings than before. Fiorentina sit in the bottom three and their last four displays mark their poorest spell for chances carved out and conceded, losing three of their last six. The hosts are perfectly happy to surrender possession and still hurt opponents, but they will find it tough against visitors whose top scorer brings five goals in five games for club and country. Atalanta know how to exploit a depleted defensive line missing multiple key operators, and that clinical edge decides it.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Atalanta are without 9 players, and Gianluca Scamacca is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":9,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.214,"combined_importance":0.276,"players":[{"player":"Gianluca Scamacca","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.071,"importance":0.108,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Giacomo Raspadori","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.071,"importance":0.088,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Raoul Bellanova","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.045,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Franck Kessié","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0.071,"importance":0.035,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Giorgio Scalvini","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Kamaldeen Sulemana","role":"ATT","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Odilon Kossounou","role":"DEF","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Sead Kolašinac","role":"DEF","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Thomas Pompei","role":"GK","reason":"Broken Finger","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3}]},"strength":0.69,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-4.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.6}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Maurizio Sarri is 11 games into the job at Atalanta, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Maurizio Sarri","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":69,"ppm":1.45,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#59318a","away":"#2061ab"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Artemio Franchi","city":"Florence","capacity":43147},"pulled":[],"published":[]}