{"id":210138,"league_id":4,"league":"Serie A","kickoff":1793130300,"home":"AS Roma","away":"Cagliari","home_id":65,"away_id":67,"venue_id":65,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.647,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.84,0.89],"read":{"text":"AS Roma to win","side":"home"},"pass":"Nothing to take on AS Roma against Cagliari. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"AS Roma are without 4 players, and Paulo Dybala and Mile Svilar are real losses."}],"lambda_home":1.842056586917071,"lambda_away":0.8910089599603462,"corner_rate":9.57,"card_rate":0.167,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.773,"home":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":1074,"name":"Pierluigi Gollini","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.588},{"id":1061,"name":"Mario Hermoso","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.766},{"id":1059,"name":"Gianluca Mancini","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.709},{"id":1060,"name":"Evan Ndicka","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.626},{"id":761,"name":"Nahuel Molina","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.574},{"id":1065,"name":"Wesley","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.694},{"id":1063,"name":"Bryan Cristante","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.61},{"id":1303,"name":"Marten de Roon","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.586},{"id":1066,"name":"Matías Soulé","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.665},{"id":515,"name":"Donyell Malen","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.649},{"id":1071,"name":"Paulo Dybala","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.307},{"id":1934,"name":"Leonardo Balerdi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.538},{"id":1081,"name":"Niccolò Pisilli","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.526},{"id":8450,"name":"Emanuele Lulli","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.406},{"id":1003,"name":"Rodrigo Mora","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.392},{"id":1076,"name":"Daniele Ghilardi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.361},{"id":1080,"name":"Devyne Rensch","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.361},{"id":956,"name":"Santiago Castro","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.305},{"id":1369,"name":"Konstantinos Koulierakis","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.258},{"id":3240,"name":"Giorgio De Marzi","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":86381,"name":"Alessandro Di Nunzio","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.047},{"id":1075,"name":"Devis Vásquez","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":4801,"name":"Antonio Arena","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.773},"away":{"formation":"4-3-2-1","players":[{"id":2198,"name":"Elia Caprile","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.836},{"id":2206,"name":"Adam Obert","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.811},{"id":2216,"name":"Juan Rodríguez","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.761},{"id":4108,"name":"Zé Pedro","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.713},{"id":3921,"name":"Yerry Mina","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.437},{"id":4157,"name":"Alessandro Romano","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.812},{"id":2203,"name":"Michel Adopo","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.806},{"id":2200,"name":"Alessandro Deiola","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.628},{"id":9037,"name":"Paul Mendy","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.733},{"id":1320,"name":"Daniel Maldini","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.698},{"id":2855,"name":"Alieu Fadera","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.311},{"id":3893,"name":"Jacopo Fazzini","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.441},{"id":39200,"name":"Yanis Massolin","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.338},{"id":39329,"name":"Raphael Kofler","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.296},{"id":2215,"name":"Boris Radunović","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.293},{"id":2497,"name":"Yukinari Sugawara","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.269},{"id":2618,"name":"Roberto Gagliardini","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.234},{"id":27059,"name":"Riccardo Ciervo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.226},{"id":1496,"name":"Kevin Carlos Omoruyi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.211},{"id":209904,"name":"Alessandro Sugamele","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.208},{"id":2204,"name":"Joseph Liteta","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.195},{"id":29507,"name":"Giuseppe Aurelio","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.18},{"id":1664,"name":"M'bala Nzola","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.159}],"confidence":0.827},"unavailable":[{"id":1067,"name":"Lorenzo Pellegrini","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":1064,"name":"Manu Koné","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":1058,"name":"Mile Svilar","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Broken Finger"},{"id":6912,"name":"Harry Winks","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":2211,"name":"Mattia Felici","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":2210,"name":"Riyad Idrissi","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":1074,"name":"Pierluigi Gollini","side":"home"},{"id":1061,"name":"Mario Hermoso","side":"home"},{"id":1059,"name":"Gianluca Mancini","side":"home"},{"id":1060,"name":"Evan Ndicka","side":"home"},{"id":761,"name":"Nahuel Molina","side":"home"},{"id":1065,"name":"Wesley","side":"home"},{"id":1063,"name":"Bryan Cristante","side":"home"},{"id":1303,"name":"Marten de Roon","side":"home"},{"id":1066,"name":"Matías Soulé","side":"home"},{"id":515,"name":"Donyell Malen","side":"home"},{"id":1071,"name":"Paulo Dybala","side":"home"},{"id":1934,"name":"Leonardo Balerdi","side":"home"},{"id":1081,"name":"Niccolò Pisilli","side":"home"},{"id":8450,"name":"Emanuele Lulli","side":"home"},{"id":1003,"name":"Rodrigo Mora","side":"home"},{"id":1076,"name":"Daniele Ghilardi","side":"home"},{"id":1080,"name":"Devyne Rensch","side":"home"},{"id":956,"name":"Santiago Castro","side":"home"},{"id":1369,"name":"Konstantinos Koulierakis","side":"home"},{"id":3240,"name":"Giorgio De Marzi","side":"home"},{"id":86381,"name":"Alessandro Di Nunzio","side":"home"},{"id":1075,"name":"Devis Vásquez","side":"home"},{"id":4801,"name":"Antonio Arena","side":"home"},{"id":1067,"name":"Lorenzo Pellegrini","side":"home"},{"id":77094,"name":"Lorenzo Paratici","side":"home"},{"id":219410,"name":"Mandjou Camara","side":"home"},{"id":1058,"name":"Mile Svilar","side":"home"},{"id":1064,"name":"Manu Koné","side":"home"},{"id":2198,"name":"Elia Caprile","side":"away"},{"id":2206,"name":"Adam Obert","side":"away"},{"id":2216,"name":"Juan Rodríguez","side":"away"},{"id":4108,"name":"Zé Pedro","side":"away"},{"id":3921,"name":"Yerry Mina","side":"away"},{"id":4157,"name":"Alessandro Romano","side":"away"},{"id":2203,"name":"Michel Adopo","side":"away"},{"id":2200,"name":"Alessandro Deiola","side":"away"},{"id":9037,"name":"Paul Mendy","side":"away"},{"id":1320,"name":"Daniel Maldini","side":"away"},{"id":2855,"name":"Alieu Fadera","side":"away"},{"id":3893,"name":"Jacopo Fazzini","side":"away"},{"id":39200,"name":"Yanis Massolin","side":"away"},{"id":39329,"name":"Raphael Kofler","side":"away"},{"id":2215,"name":"Boris Radunović","side":"away"},{"id":2497,"name":"Yukinari Sugawara","side":"away"},{"id":2618,"name":"Roberto Gagliardini","side":"away"},{"id":27059,"name":"Riccardo Ciervo","side":"away"},{"id":1496,"name":"Kevin Carlos Omoruyi","side":"away"},{"id":209904,"name":"Alessandro Sugamele","side":"away"},{"id":2204,"name":"Joseph Liteta","side":"away"},{"id":29507,"name":"Giuseppe Aurelio","side":"away"},{"id":1664,"name":"M'bala Nzola","side":"away"},{"id":2210,"name":"Riyad Idrissi","side":"away"},{"id":13707,"name":"Nicola Grandu","side":"away"},{"id":2211,"name":"Mattia Felici","side":"away"},{"id":5665,"name":"Yael Trepy","side":"away"},{"id":8495,"name":"Alen Sherri","side":"away"},{"id":6912,"name":"Harry Winks","side":"away"},{"id":87431,"name":"Demi Akarakiri","side":"away"},{"id":13507,"name":"Ivan Sulev","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":1064,"name":"Manu Koné","side":"home","team":"AS Roma","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":9,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":{"opponent":"Inter","kickoff":1789833600,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.075,"country":{"team":"France","apps":10,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1784055600},"lately":null},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":17,"country":0}},{"id":1071,"name":"Paulo Dybala","side":"home","team":"AS Roma","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"doubtful","reason":"Calf Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":12,"starts":11,"goals":2,"assists":6,"big_chances":8,"clean_sheets":5,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":11},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Fiorentina","kickoff":1787597100,"goals":0,"assists":3,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_creator","best_performer","chance_creator"],"importance":0.23,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":45,"country":0}},{"id":1058,"name":"Mile Svilar","side":"home","team":"AS Roma","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"out","reason":"Broken Finger","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":10,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Borussia Dortmund","kickoff":1786807800,"goals":0,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.105,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1067,"name":"Lorenzo Pellegrini","side":"home","team":"AS Roma","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":4,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":105,"country":0}},{"id":515,"name":"Donyell Malen","side":"home","team":"AS Roma","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":13,"starts":9,"goals":9,"assists":3,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":13,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Fiorentina","kickoff":1787597100,"goals":3,"assists":0,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.35,"country":{"team":"Netherlands","apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782428400},"lately":null},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":233,"country":0}},{"id":1066,"name":"Matías Soulé","side":"home","team":"AS Roma","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":15,"starts":9,"goals":4,"assists":4,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":15,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":2,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Atalanta","kickoff":1788633900,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.241,"country":{"team":"Argentina","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":4,"minutes":282,"country":0}},{"id":6912,"name":"Harry Winks","side":"away","team":"Cagliari","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"MID","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":8,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.034,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":126,"country":0}},{"id":2211,"name":"Mattia Felici","side":"away","team":"Cagliari","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LM","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":4,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.002,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2210,"name":"Riyad Idrissi","side":"away","team":"Cagliari","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1320,"name":"Daniel Maldini","side":"away","team":"Cagliari","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Lecce","kickoff":1788798600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.356,"country":{"team":"Italy","apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":134,"country":0}},{"id":9037,"name":"Paul Mendy","side":"away","team":"Cagliari","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":8,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Atalanta","kickoff":1789238700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.217,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":65,"away":67},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":0},"below":{"w":5,"d":2,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":1},"below":{"w":4,"d":0,"l":2}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":440,"name":"Gian Piero Gasperini","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1770666300,"score":"2-0","result":"W"}}},"away":{"id":236,"name":"Fabio Pisacane","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1770666300,"score":"0-2","result":"L"}}}},"best_xi":[{"id":1061,"name":"Mario Hermoso","team_id":65,"position":"D","matches":8,"goals":1,"assists":0},{"id":1071,"name":"Paulo Dybala","team_id":65,"position":"F","matches":6,"goals":0,"assists":4},{"id":1066,"name":"Matías Soulé","team_id":65,"position":"F","matches":8,"goals":3,"assists":1}],"players":{"515":{"caps":59,"goals":12,"country":"Netherlands","signed":{"from":"Aston Villa","fee":25000000,"at":1782864000}},"1064":{"caps":28,"goals":0,"country":"France","signed":null},"1066":{"caps":3,"goals":0,"country":"Argentina","signed":null},"1320":{"caps":11,"goals":0,"country":"Italy","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":27772,"name":"Antonio Raimondo","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":1892,"name":"Gustavo Varela","goals":7,"rank":2},{"id":515,"name":"Donyell Malen","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":1311,"name":"Nikola Krstović","goals":6,"rank":4},{"id":2831,"name":"Anastasios Douvikas","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":1688,"name":"Marcus Thuram","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":1994,"name":"Adrien Rabiot","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":1320,"name":"Daniel Maldini","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":1687,"name":"Lautaro Martínez","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":1843,"name":"Che Adams","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":1699,"name":"Davide Frattesi","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":1713,"name":"Diego Moreira","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":604,"name":"Franco Mastantuono","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":27778,"name":"Giacomo Calò","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":16398,"name":"Giorgi Kvernadze","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 9","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":88,"home_wins":41,"draws":28,"away_wins":19,"home_goals":140,"away_goals":100,"avg_total_goals":2.727272727272727,"home_win_rate":0.4659090909090909,"away_win_rate":0.2159090909090909,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Cagliari","date":"2026-02-09T19:45:00+00:00","home":"AS Roma","score":"2-0","event_id":1315,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":67,"home_team_id":65},{"away":"AS Roma","date":"2025-12-07T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Cagliari","score":"1-0","event_id":1205,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":65,"home_team_id":67},{"away":"Cagliari","date":"2025-03-16T15:00:00+00:00","home":"AS Roma","score":"1-0","event_id":307557,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":67,"home_team_id":65},{"away":"AS Roma","date":"2024-08-18T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Cagliari","score":"0-0","event_id":307276,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":65,"home_team_id":67},{"away":"Cagliari","date":"2024-02-05T19:45:00+00:00","home":"AS Roma","score":"4-0","event_id":312979,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":67,"home_team_id":65},{"away":"AS Roma","date":"2023-10-08T16:00:00+00:00","home":"Cagliari","score":"1-4","event_id":312828,"away_score":4,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":65,"home_team_id":67},{"away":"Cagliari","date":"2022-01-16T17:00:00+00:00","home":"AS Roma","score":"1-0","event_id":321313,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":67,"home_team_id":65},{"away":"AS Roma","date":"2021-10-27T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Cagliari","score":"1-2","event_id":321188,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":65,"home_team_id":67},{"away":"AS Roma","date":"2021-04-25T16:00:00+00:00","home":"Cagliari","score":"3-2","event_id":325316,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":65,"home_team_id":67},{"away":"Cagliari","date":"2020-12-23T19:45:00+00:00","home":"AS Roma","score":"3-2","event_id":325121,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":67,"home_team_id":65}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":65,"position":3,"played":8,"points":18,"goal_diff":13,"team_name":"AS Roma","won":5,"drawn":3,"lost":0,"goals_for":19,"goals_against":6,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":67,"position":9,"played":8,"points":13,"goal_diff":-3,"team_name":"Cagliari","won":4,"drawn":1,"lost":3,"goals_for":6,"goals_against":9,"group":null},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"2-3-1","goals_for":2.33,"goals_against":1.5,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"DDLWWD","venue_ppg":1.75},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.67,"record":"3-1-2","goals_for":0.83,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"WWWDLL","venue_ppg":2}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AS Roma are without 4 players, and Paulo Dybala and Mile Svilar are real losses.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.105,"combined_importance":0.295,"players":[{"player":"Paulo Dybala","role":"ATT","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.115,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":6,"tags":["top_creator","best_performer","chance_creator"]},{"player":"Mile Svilar","role":"GK","reason":"Broken Finger","goal_share":0,"importance":0.105,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Manu Koné","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.105,"importance":0.075,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Lorenzo Pellegrini","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6}]},"strength":0.737,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cagliari are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.036,"players":[{"player":"Harry Winks","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.034,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Mattia Felici","role":"ATT","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.002,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Riyad Idrissi","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.773,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.227,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":29,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":18,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":4,"gap_to_safety":14,"gap_to_europe":-4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":13,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gian Piero Gasperini has 24 matches in charge at AS Roma, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Gian Piero Gasperini","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":206,"ppm":1.92,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fabio Pisacane has 22 matches in charge at Cagliari, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Fabio Pisacane","matches_in_charge":22,"tenure_days":207,"ppm":1.59,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AS Roma come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.15625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":3.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cagliari come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.28125,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.251,"defence":0.188,"effective_matches":13.6,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.18,"defence":-0.037,"effective_matches":13.6,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AS Roma average 12 points more possession than Cagliari, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":57.3,"shots":17.3,"xg_per_shot":0.115,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.317,"finishing_vs_xg":0.42},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":45,"shots":10.7,"xg_per_shot":0.101,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.358,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.24},"possession_gap":12.3},"strength":0.493,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.6}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AS Roma have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.42,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cagliari are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.24,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"43 yellow cards in this referee's last 16 games, where 55 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 16 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":16,"yellows_per_match":2.69,"reds_per_match":0.063,"league_yellows_per_match":3.44,"league_reds_per_match":0.165,"yellow_ratio":0.78,"red_ratio":0.38,"sample":16,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 414 km for Cagliari.","evidence":{"travel_km":414},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":16.6,"temperature_c":17,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.08980196923812928},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Roma should control this game, but Cagliari's luck will finally run out. The visitors have conceded 11 in their last ten matches, even though the chances given away would normally cost around 16. A strong goalkeeper and good fortune are hiding real defensive flaws. Roma have won two of their last six, though three clean sheets in six keep them solid at the back. Losing Paulo Dybala strips away the player who makes their chances, taking six assists out of their attack. Playing their fourth game in a fortnight might slow Roma down. Still, top scorer Donyell Malen has nine goals this season, and his sharp finishing will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6087,"created_at":"2026-10-21T02:15:19Z","event":{"id":210138,"event_date":"2026-10-27T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":65,"home_team":"AS Roma","away_team_id":67,"away_team":"Cagliari","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":71.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7155,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210138,"event_date":"2026-10-27T19:45:00Z","home_team":"AS Roma","away_team":"Cagliari","polymarket_event_id":"1226515","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-25T22:57:25Z"}},"computed_at":1793119153,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#b00f23"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Olimpico","city":"Rome","capacity":72698},"pulled":[],"published":[]}