{"id":210137,"league_id":4,"league":"Serie A","kickoff":1793208600,"home":"AC Milan","away":"Bologna","home_id":63,"away_id":66,"venue_id":63,"rank":2,"status":"finished","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.646,"score":[2,4],"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.4,1.1],"odds_1x2":{"HOME":0.5973214471744835,"DRAW":0.2352845235364211,"AWAY":0.16739402928909525},"read":null,"top_pick":{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.28,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.28},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":1.26},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":1.26},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.26},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":1.26},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.25}],"prob":0.78,"lean":false},"pass":null,"confident":[{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"prob":0.78,"odds":1.28,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.28},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":1.26},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":1.26},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.26},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":1.26},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.25}],"lean":false,"caveat":true}],"flags":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"AC Milan are without 8 players, and Adrien Rabiot, Samuel Chukwueze and Diego Moreira are real losses."},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"AC Milan have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0, and 3.00 a game at home."}],"lambda_home":1.403965569424752,"lambda_away":1.1032244198687764,"corner_rate":7.69,"card_rate":0.19,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.727,"home":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":1987,"name":"Mike Maignan","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.808},{"id":2003,"name":"Pervis Estupiñán","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.339},{"id":1990,"name":"Strahinja Pavlović","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.879},{"id":2004,"name":"Koni De Winter","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.872},{"id":1988,"name":"Fikayo Tomori","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.438},{"id":2005,"name":"Ardon Jashari","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.521},{"id":1316,"name":"Yunus Musah","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.61},{"id":1993,"name":"Luka Modrić","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.579},{"id":3820,"name":"Christian Pulišić","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.517},{"id":2256,"name":"Gonçalo Ramos","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.717},{"id":39443,"name":"Alphadjo Cisse","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.437},{"id":1995,"name":"Davide Bartesaghi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.446},{"id":549,"name":"Omari Hutchinson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.39},{"id":4062,"name":"Lorenzo Torriani","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.285},{"id":29661,"name":"Sankhoun Diawara","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.28},{"id":1833,"name":"Francesco Camarda","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.203},{"id":971,"name":"Filippo Terracciano","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.187},{"id":1998,"name":"Ruben Loftus-Cheek","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.16},{"id":29502,"name":"Christian Comotto","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.136},{"id":79513,"name":"Leo Paul Bouyer","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02},{"id":39263,"name":"Valeri Vladimirov","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.015},{"id":2001,"name":"Pietro Terracciano","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01},{"id":219074,"name":"El Hadji Malick Cisse","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.782},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":4033,"name":"Łukasz Skorupski","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.675},{"id":950,"name":"Juan Miranda","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.706},{"id":957,"name":"Torbjørn Heggem","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.58},{"id":1349,"name":"Arthur Theate","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.56},{"id":947,"name":"Nadir Zortea","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.61},{"id":966,"name":"Lewis Ferguson","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.82},{"id":22392,"name":"Mikel Amondarain","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.265},{"id":958,"name":"Nicolò Cambiaghi","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.742},{"id":954,"name":"Jens Odgaard","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.407},{"id":961,"name":"Federico Bernardeschi","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.69},{"id":4000,"name":"Artem Dovbyk","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.255},{"id":951,"name":"Tommaso Pobega","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.589},{"id":948,"name":"Nicolò Casale","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.468},{"id":3288,"name":"Eivind Helland","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.42},{"id":4538,"name":"Matteo Darmian","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.415},{"id":962,"name":"Massimo Pessina","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.351},{"id":2097,"name":"Oussama El Azzouzi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.308},{"id":952,"name":"Nikola Moro","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.281},{"id":1968,"name":"Rahim Alhassane","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.278},{"id":12261,"name":"Jay Enem","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.252},{"id":3033,"name":"Martin Vitík","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.23},{"id":60560,"name":"Marco Libra","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.193},{"id":2509,"name":"Samuel Mbangula","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.143}],"confidence":0.727},"unavailable":[{"id":1994,"name":"Adrien Rabiot","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Calf Injury"},{"id":1991,"name":"Alexis Saelemaekers","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Ankle Injury"},{"id":1713,"name":"Diego Moreira","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":2008,"name":"Mario Gila","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Ankle Injury"},{"id":1989,"name":"Matteo Gabbia","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Tendon Injury"},{"id":835,"name":"Samuel Chukwueze","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":960,"name":"Emil Holm","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Hamstring Injury"},{"id":953,"name":"Riccardo Orsolini","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":1331,"name":"Roberto Piccoli","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Thigh Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":1987,"name":"Mike Maignan","side":"home"},{"id":2003,"name":"Pervis Estupiñán","side":"home"},{"id":1990,"name":"Strahinja Pavlović","side":"home"},{"id":2004,"name":"Koni De Winter","side":"home"},{"id":1988,"name":"Fikayo Tomori","side":"home"},{"id":2005,"name":"Ardon Jashari","side":"home"},{"id":1316,"name":"Yunus Musah","side":"home"},{"id":1993,"name":"Luka Modrić","side":"home"},{"id":3820,"name":"Christian Pulišić","side":"home"},{"id":2256,"name":"Gonçalo Ramos","side":"home"},{"id":39443,"name":"Alphadjo Cisse","side":"home"},{"id":1995,"name":"Davide Bartesaghi","side":"home"},{"id":549,"name":"Omari Hutchinson","side":"home"},{"id":4062,"name":"Lorenzo Torriani","side":"home"},{"id":29661,"name":"Sankhoun Diawara","side":"home"},{"id":1833,"name":"Francesco Camarda","side":"home"},{"id":971,"name":"Filippo Terracciano","side":"home"},{"id":1998,"name":"Ruben Loftus-Cheek","side":"home"},{"id":29502,"name":"Christian Comotto","side":"home"},{"id":79513,"name":"Leo Paul Bouyer","side":"home"},{"id":39263,"name":"Valeri Vladimirov","side":"home"},{"id":2001,"name":"Pietro Terracciano","side":"home"},{"id":219074,"name":"El Hadji Malick Cisse","side":"home"},{"id":2008,"name":"Mario Gila","side":"home"},{"id":1989,"name":"Matteo Gabbia","side":"home"},{"id":219077,"name":"Nirash Perera","side":"home"},{"id":219068,"name":"Luca Menon","side":"home"},{"id":2000,"name":"Matteo Pittarella","side":"home"},{"id":1994,"name":"Adrien Rabiot","side":"home"},{"id":835,"name":"Samuel Chukwueze","side":"home"},{"id":1713,"name":"Diego Moreira","side":"home"},{"id":974,"name":"Warren Bondo","side":"home"},{"id":79510,"name":"Lorenzo Ossola","side":"home"},{"id":79511,"name":"Silvano Vos","side":"home"},{"id":1991,"name":"Alexis Saelemaekers","side":"home"},{"id":4033,"name":"Łukasz Skorupski","side":"away"},{"id":950,"name":"Juan Miranda","side":"away"},{"id":957,"name":"Torbjørn Heggem","side":"away"},{"id":1349,"name":"Arthur Theate","side":"away"},{"id":947,"name":"Nadir Zortea","side":"away"},{"id":966,"name":"Lewis Ferguson","side":"away"},{"id":22392,"name":"Mikel Amondarain","side":"away"},{"id":958,"name":"Nicolò Cambiaghi","side":"away"},{"id":954,"name":"Jens Odgaard","side":"away"},{"id":961,"name":"Federico Bernardeschi","side":"away"},{"id":4000,"name":"Artem Dovbyk","side":"away"},{"id":951,"name":"Tommaso Pobega","side":"away"},{"id":948,"name":"Nicolò Casale","side":"away"},{"id":3288,"name":"Eivind Helland","side":"away"},{"id":4538,"name":"Matteo Darmian","side":"away"},{"id":962,"name":"Massimo Pessina","side":"away"},{"id":2097,"name":"Oussama El Azzouzi","side":"away"},{"id":952,"name":"Nikola Moro","side":"away"},{"id":1968,"name":"Rahim Alhassane","side":"away"},{"id":12261,"name":"Jay Enem","side":"away"},{"id":3033,"name":"Martin Vitík","side":"away"},{"id":60560,"name":"Marco Libra","side":"away"},{"id":2509,"name":"Samuel Mbangula","side":"away"},{"id":960,"name":"Emil Holm","side":"away"},{"id":965,"name":"Lorenzo De Silvestri","side":"away"},{"id":1331,"name":"Roberto Piccoli","side":"away"},{"id":3920,"name":"Ukko Happonen","side":"away"},{"id":953,"name":"Riccardo Orsolini","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":1994,"name":"Adrien Rabiot","side":"home","team":"AC Milan","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Calf Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":6,"goals":4,"assists":4,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Atalanta","kickoff":1792339200,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","top_creator","best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.293,"country":{"team":"France","apps":12,"goals":0,"assists":1,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":7,"goals":0,"assists":1,"ended":1784408400},"lately":null},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":196,"country":0}},{"id":1713,"name":"Diego Moreira","side":"home","team":"AC Milan","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LM","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":7,"starts":4,"goals":3,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Lazio","kickoff":1789228800,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.148,"country":{"team":"Belgium","apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"ended":1782936000},"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":166,"country":0}},{"id":2001,"name":"Pietro Terracciano","side":"home","team":"AC Milan","club":null,"role":"GK","position":"GK","status":"doubtful","reason":"Physical Discomfort","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":2008,"name":"Mario Gila","side":"home","team":"AC Milan","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"out","reason":"Ankle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Atalanta","kickoff":1792339200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.077,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":84,"country":0}},{"id":835,"name":"Samuel Chukwueze","side":"home","team":"AC Milan","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":12,"starts":8,"goals":1,"assists":5,"big_chances":7,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Manchester United","kickoff":1786805100,"goals":1,"assists":2,"score":"4-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator"],"importance":0.202,"country":{"team":"Nigeria","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":53,"country":0}},{"id":2256,"name":"Gonçalo Ramos","side":"home","team":"AC Milan","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":13,"starts":10,"goals":4,"assists":3,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":13,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":{"opponent":"Manchester United","kickoff":1786805100,"goals":1,"assists":2,"score":"4-2","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.209,"country":{"team":"Portugal","apps":7,"goals":4,"assists":1,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"ended":1783033200},"lately":null},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":209,"country":0}},{"id":3820,"name":"Christian Pulišić","side":"home","team":"AC Milan","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":4,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Lecce","kickoff":1789929900,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["best_performer"],"importance":0.118,"country":{"team":"USA","apps":6,"goals":1,"assists":2,"tournament":{"name":"World Cup 2026","apps":4,"goals":0,"assists":1,"ended":1783382400},"lately":null},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":195,"country":0}},{"id":953,"name":"Riccardo Orsolini","side":"away","team":"Bologna","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":5,"starts":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Lecce","kickoff":1791723600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.076,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1331,"name":"Roberto Piccoli","side":"away","team":"Bologna","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":8,"starts":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Sassuolo","kickoff":1788710400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.063,"country":{"team":null,"apps":1,"goals":1,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":1,"minutes":30,"country":0}},{"id":960,"name":"Emil Holm","side":"away","team":"Bologna","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2027-02-28","season":{"apps":6,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":1},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.027,"country":{"team":"Sweden","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":961,"name":"Federico Bernardeschi","side":"away","team":"Bologna","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":7,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Cagliari","kickoff":1792846800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.159,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":178,"country":0}},{"id":958,"name":"Nicolò Cambiaghi","side":"away","team":"Bologna","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":8,"goals":0,"assists":2,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Lecce","kickoff":1791723600,"goals":0,"assists":2,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.113,"country":{"team":"Italy","apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":166,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":63,"away":66},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":0},"below":{"w":5,"d":2,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":2,"d":1,"l":4},"below":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":1813,"name":"Rúben Amorim","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1747249200,"score":"0-1","result":"L"}}},"away":{"id":457,"name":"Raffaele Palladino","vs":{"w":2,"d":1,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1778438700,"score":"3-2","result":"W"}}}},"best_xi":[{"id":2008,"name":"Mario Gila","team_id":63,"position":"D","matches":7,"goals":1,"assists":0},{"id":1994,"name":"Adrien Rabiot","team_id":63,"position":"M","matches":7,"goals":4,"assists":3}],"players":{"835":{"caps":51,"goals":2,"country":"Nigeria","signed":null},"958":{"caps":5,"goals":0,"country":"Italy","signed":null},"960":{"caps":17,"goals":1,"country":"Sweden","signed":null},"1713":{"caps":16,"goals":0,"country":"Belgium","signed":{"from":"RC Strasbourg","fee":50000000,"at":1787097600}},"1994":{"caps":84,"goals":6,"country":"France","signed":{"from":"Olympique de Marseille","fee":7000000,"at":1756684800}},"2008":{"caps":175,"goals":2,"country":"Lazio","signed":{"from":"Lazio","fee":30000000,"at":1783641600}},"2256":{"caps":37,"goals":11,"country":"Portugal","signed":{"from":"Paris Saint-Germain","fee":74000000,"at":1782777600}},"3820":{"caps":87,"goals":23,"country":"USA","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":27772,"name":"Antonio Raimondo","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":515,"name":"Donyell Malen","goals":7,"rank":2},{"id":1892,"name":"Gustavo Varela","goals":7,"rank":3},{"id":1311,"name":"Nikola Krstović","goals":6,"rank":4},{"id":2831,"name":"Anastasios Douvikas","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":1320,"name":"Daniel Maldini","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":1688,"name":"Marcus Thuram","goals":5,"rank":7},{"id":1994,"name":"Adrien Rabiot","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":1843,"name":"Che Adams","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":1687,"name":"Lautaro Martínez","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":2021,"name":"Tijjani Noslin","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":1699,"name":"Davide Frattesi","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":1713,"name":"Diego Moreira","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":604,"name":"Franco Mastantuono","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":27778,"name":"Giacomo Calò","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 9","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":91,"home_wins":51,"draws":26,"away_wins":14,"home_goals":156,"away_goals":79,"avg_total_goals":2.5824175824175826,"home_win_rate":0.5604395604395604,"away_win_rate":0.15384615384615385,"recent_matches":[{"away":"AC Milan","date":"2026-02-03T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Bologna","score":"0-3","event_id":4834,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":63,"home_team_id":66},{"away":"Bologna","date":"2025-09-14T18:45:00+00:00","home":"AC Milan","score":"1-0","event_id":1098,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":66,"home_team_id":63},{"away":"AC Milan","date":"2025-05-14T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Bologna","score":"1-0","event_id":232203,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":63,"home_team_id":66},{"away":"Bologna","date":"2025-05-09T18:45:00+00:00","home":"AC Milan","score":"3-1","event_id":307620,"away_score":1,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":66,"home_team_id":63},{"away":"AC Milan","date":"2025-02-27T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Bologna","score":"2-1","event_id":307359,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":63,"home_team_id":66},{"away":"Bologna","date":"2024-01-27T19:45:00+00:00","home":"AC Milan","score":"2-2","event_id":312963,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":66,"home_team_id":63},{"away":"AC Milan","date":"2023-08-21T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Bologna","score":"0-2","event_id":312759,"away_score":2,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":63,"home_team_id":66},{"away":"AC Milan","date":"2023-04-15T13:00:00+00:00","home":"Bologna","score":"1-1","event_id":317596,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":63,"home_team_id":66},{"away":"Bologna","date":"2022-08-27T18:45:00+00:00","home":"AC Milan","score":"2-0","event_id":317328,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":66,"home_team_id":63},{"away":"Bologna","date":"2022-04-04T18:45:00+00:00","home":"AC Milan","score":"0-0","event_id":321407,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":66,"home_team_id":63}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":63,"position":5,"played":8,"points":18,"goal_diff":9,"team_name":"AC Milan","won":5,"drawn":3,"lost":0,"goals_for":16,"goals_against":7,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":66,"position":13,"played":8,"points":8,"goal_diff":-2,"team_name":"Bologna","won":2,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":8,"goals_against":10,"group":null},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.17,"record":"4-1-1","goals_for":2.17,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"WDWWLW","venue_ppg":3},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLDWLW","venue_ppg":2}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan are without 8 players, and Adrien Rabiot, Samuel Chukwueze and Diego Moreira are real losses.","evidence":{"count":8,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.533,"combined_importance":0.72,"players":[{"player":"Adrien Rabiot","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0.267,"importance":0.293,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["top_scorer","top_creator","best_performer","in_form"]},{"player":"Samuel Chukwueze","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.202,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator"]},{"player":"Diego Moreira","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.2,"importance":0.148,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Mario Gila","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0.067,"importance":0.077,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Alexis Saelemaekers","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Matteo Gabbia","role":"DEF","reason":"Tendon Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Pietro Terracciano","role":"GK","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Ruben Loftus-Cheek","role":"MID","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":2.6}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.25,"combined_importance":0.166,"players":[{"player":"Riccardo Orsolini","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.076,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Roberto Piccoli","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.063,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Emil Holm","role":"DEF","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.027,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.415,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.727,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.273,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0, and 3.00 a game at home.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.17,"record":"4-1-1","goals_for":2.17,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"WDWWLW","venue_ppg":3},"strength":0.544,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna have taken 1.33 points a game from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3, and 2.00 a game on the road.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLDWLW","venue_ppg":2},"strength":0.15,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":29,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":18,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":14,"gap_to_europe":-4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":8,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":17,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":6},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"Bologna","reverse_score":"0-3","reverse_date":1770147900},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rúben Amorim is 15 games into the job at AC Milan, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Rúben Amorim","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":312,"ppm":1.73,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Raffaele Palladino is 6 games into the job at Bologna, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Raffaele Palladino","matches_in_charge":6,"tenure_days":82,"ppm":1.17,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan have had 2.9 days' rest.","evidence":{"days_rest":2.9,"matches_in_7_days":2,"matches_in_14_days":4,"load":0.6},"strength":0.375,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-4.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":2.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.1875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.112,"defence":0.134,"effective_matches":13.6,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.087,"defence":0.077,"effective_matches":13.6,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan average 10 points more possession than Bologna, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":57,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.139,"corners":3.6,"corners_per_shot":0.281,"finishing_vs_xg":0.22},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47,"shots":11.4,"xg_per_shot":0.101,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.323,"finishing_vs_xg":0.01},"possession_gap":10},"strength":0.4,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.22,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"55 yellow cards in this referee's last 16 games, where 54 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 16 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":16,"yellows_per_match":3.44,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":3.4,"league_reds_per_match":0.169,"yellow_ratio":1.01,"red_ratio":0,"sample":16,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 204 km for Bologna.","evidence":{"travel_km":204},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":4.8,"temperature_c":16,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.06687728960026065},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.overround","section":"§7.3","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The bookmakers are taking a 6.1% cut on this match. The bigger their cut, the further out a price has to be before it is worth backing.","evidence":{"overround":1.061,"margin_pct":6.1,"devig_method":"shin","books_quoting":3},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Since opening, AWAY has drifted 5.6% since the market opened.","evidence":{"moves":[{"outcome":"AWAY","move_pct":-5.6,"direction":"DRIFTING"},{"outcome":"DRAW","move_pct":-1.2,"direction":"SHORTENING"},{"outcome":"HOME","move_pct":-0.6,"direction":"DRIFTING"}]},"strength":0.278,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.sharp_reference","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The sharp book and the wider market agree on this fixture.","evidence":{"sharp":{"HOME":0.5983,"DRAW":0.2333,"AWAY":0.1684},"consensus":{"HOME":0.5973,"DRAW":0.2353,"AWAY":0.1674},"largest_gap":{"outcome":"DRAW","points":-0.2},"sharp_overround":1.0381},"strength":0.025,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.prediction_market","section":"§7.2","tier":7,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No prediction-market prices for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"markets":[{"market":"1x2","line":null,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.4295,"DRAW":0.2837,"AWAY":0.2869},"book":{"HOME":0.5973,"DRAW":0.2353,"AWAY":0.1674},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.69,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"DRAW":{"odds":4.12,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":6,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.061,"books":14,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.5983,"DRAW":0.2333,"AWAY":0.1684}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.5952,"DRAW":0.231,"AWAY":0.1738}}},{"market":"double_chance","line":null,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"12":0.7163,"1X":0.7131,"X2":0.5705},"book":{"12":0.7647,"1X":0.8326,"X2":0.4027},"best":{"12":{"odds":1.28,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"1X":{"odds":1.18,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"X2":{"odds":2.31,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0308,"books":5,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"12":0.7667,"1X":0.8316,"X2":0.4017}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"12":0.769,"1X":0.8262,"X2":0.4048}}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","line":null,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.5995,"AWAY":0.4005},"book":{"HOME":0.7811,"AWAY":0.2189},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.28,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":3.75,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0742,"books":6,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.7803,"AWAY":0.2197}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.774,"AWAY":0.226}}},{"market":"btts","line":null,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"yes":0.513,"no":0.487},"book":{"yes":0.5221,"no":0.4779},"best":{"yes":{"odds":1.85,"bookmaker":"William Hill"},"no":{"odds":2.03,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0729,"books":12,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"yes":0.5214,"no":0.4786}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"yes":0.5214,"no":0.4786}}},{"market":"over_under_05","line":0.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.9096,"under":0.0904},"book":{"over":0.9454,"under":0.0546},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.03,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":12,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0574,"books":2,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.9438,"under":0.0562}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.9496,"under":0.0504}}},{"market":"over_under_15","line":1.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.7231,"under":0.2769},"book":{"over":0.7658,"under":0.2342},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.28,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"},"under":{"odds":4.1,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0583,"books":4,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.7601,"under":0.2399}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.7649,"under":0.2351}}},{"market":"over_under_25","line":2.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.458,"under":0.542},"book":{"over":0.5157,"under":0.4843},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.93,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"under":{"odds":2.01,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.046,"books":6,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.5172,"under":0.4828}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.5217,"under":0.4783}}},{"market":"over_under_35","line":3.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.244,"under":0.756},"book":{"over":0.2962,"under":0.7038},"best":{"over":{"odds":3.18,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"under":{"odds":1.38,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"}},"overround":1.0537,"books":4,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.2954,"under":0.7046}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.2984,"under":0.7016}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.0786,"AWAY":0.9214},"book":{"HOME":0.1483,"AWAY":0.8517},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":5.75,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.14,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0653,"books":3,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1478,"AWAY":0.8522}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2.25,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.0841,"AWAY":0.9159},"book":{"HOME":0.16,"AWAY":0.84},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.16,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0527,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1592,"AWAY":0.8408}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.0904,"AWAY":0.9096},"book":{"HOME":0.1759,"AWAY":0.8241},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":5.25,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.188,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0617,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1755,"AWAY":0.8245}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.75,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.154,"AWAY":0.846},"book":{"HOME":0.2549,"AWAY":0.7451},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":3.7,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.311,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.06,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.2523,"AWAY":0.7477}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.2093,"AWAY":0.7907},"book":{"HOME":0.3191,"AWAY":0.6809},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":3.015,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.463,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0562,"books":6,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.3186,"AWAY":0.6814}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.25,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.2352,"AWAY":0.7648},"book":{"HOME":0.3683,"AWAY":0.6317},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.609,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.582,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0567,"books":6,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.3651,"AWAY":0.6349}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.2684,"AWAY":0.7316},"book":{"HOME":0.416,"AWAY":0.584},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.3,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.691,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0591,"books":8,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.4218,"AWAY":0.5782}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.75,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.3589,"AWAY":0.6411},"book":{"HOME":0.5076,"AWAY":0.4924},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.89,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.975,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0573,"books":7,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.504,"AWAY":0.496}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.4295,"AWAY":0.5705},"book":{"HOME":0.5652,"AWAY":0.4348},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.73,"bookmaker":"Interwetten"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.18,"bookmaker":"Betsson"}},"overround":1.068,"books":11,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.5744,"AWAY":0.4256}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.25,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.5004,"AWAY":0.4996},"book":{"HOME":0.6495,"AWAY":0.3505},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.65,"bookmaker":"Betsson"}},"overround":1.0635,"books":7,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.647,"AWAY":0.353}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.5995,"AWAY":0.4005},"book":{"HOME":0.7513,"AWAY":0.2487},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.3,"bookmaker":"Interwetten"},"AWAY":{"odds":3.7,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0663,"books":6,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.7484,"AWAY":0.2516}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.25,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.6657,"AWAY":0.3343},"book":{"HOME":0.7908,"AWAY":0.2092},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.23,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":4.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0596,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.7831,"AWAY":0.2169}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.7131,"AWAY":0.2869},"book":{"HOME":0.8155,"AWAY":0.1845},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.2,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":4.8,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0556,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8106,"AWAY":0.1894}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.75,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"HOME":0.7799,"AWAY":0.2201},"book":{"HOME":0.8678,"AWAY":0.1322},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.12,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":6.4,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0547,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8648,"AWAY":0.1352}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":7.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.4842,"under":0.5158},"book":{"over":0.6026,"under":0.3974},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.6,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":2.38,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"}},"overround":1.0751,"books":3,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.6104,"under":0.3896}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.6086,"under":0.3914}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":8.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.3694,"under":0.6306},"book":{"over":0.4674,"under":0.5326},"best":{"over":{"odds":2.1,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":1.85,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"}},"overround":1.0631,"books":3,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.4835,"under":0.5165}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.4795,"under":0.5205}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":9.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.2702,"under":0.7298},"book":{"over":0.3442,"under":0.6558},"best":{"over":{"odds":2.88,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":1.5,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"}},"overround":1.0767,"books":3,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.3643,"under":0.6357}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.3567,"under":0.6433}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":10.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.1899,"under":0.8101},"book":{"over":0.2246,"under":0.7754},"best":{"over":{"odds":4,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":1.24,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0992,"books":2,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.2083,"under":0.7917}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.2083,"under":0.7917}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":11.5,"confidence":0.646,"model":{"over":0.1286,"under":0.8714},"book":{"over":0.1533,"under":0.8467},"best":{"over":{"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":1.13,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0985,"books":2,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.1405,"under":0.8595}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.1405,"under":0.8595}}},{"market":"corners_1x2","line":null,"confidence":0.517,"model":{"HOME":0.5388,"DRAW":0.1233,"AWAY":0.3379},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"red_card","line":null,"confidence":0.452,"model":{"yes":0.1733,"no":0.8267},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null}],"candidates":[{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"AWAY","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.4005,"book_prob":0.2189,"edge":0.1816,"shrunk_edge":0.1342,"odds":3.75,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.75},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":3.6},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":3.5},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":3.5},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":3.5},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":3.45}],"kelly":0.0456,"confidence":0.646,"family":"result"},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.5705,"book_prob":0.4027,"edge":0.1679,"shrunk_edge":0.124,"odds":2.31,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.31},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":2.25},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":2.25},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":2.2},{"slug":"sbo","book":"Sbo","odds":2.2}],"kelly":0.0607,"confidence":0.646,"family":"result"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0,"push":"full","model_prob":0.4005,"book_prob":0.2487,"edge":0.1517,"shrunk_edge":0.1029,"odds":3.7,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.7},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.68},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":3.6},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":3.5},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":3.45},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":3.35}],"kelly":0.0446,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.4996,"book_prob":0.3505,"edge":0.149,"shrunk_edge":0.1011,"odds":2.65,"bookmaker":"Betsson","prices":[{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":2.65},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":2.65},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.647},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":2.625},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":2.6},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.6},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":2.55}],"kelly":0.0491,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.6411,"book_prob":0.4924,"edge":0.1488,"shrunk_edge":0.1009,"odds":1.975,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.975},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.955},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.95},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.91},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.909},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.88},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.85}],"kelly":0.0683,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1,"push":"full","model_prob":0.7316,"book_prob":0.584,"edge":0.1477,"shrunk_edge":0.1002,"odds":1.691,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.691},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.65},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.65},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.625},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.62},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.615},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.6},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.6}],"kelly":0.0858,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.5705,"book_prob":0.4348,"edge":0.1357,"shrunk_edge":0.0921,"odds":2.18,"bookmaker":"Betsson","prices":[{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":2.18},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":2.15},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":2.15},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":2.15},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":2.15},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":2.15},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":2.15},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":2.1},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":2.1},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":2.1},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.1}],"kelly":0.0516,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.7648,"book_prob":0.6317,"edge":0.1331,"shrunk_edge":0.0903,"odds":1.582,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.582},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.525},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.51},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.5},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.5},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.48}],"kelly":0.0902,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"1x2","outcome":"AWAY","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.2869,"book_prob":0.1674,"edge":0.1195,"shrunk_edge":0.0883,"odds":6,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":6},{"slug":"dafabet","book":"dafabet","odds":5.6},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":5.57},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":5.55},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":5.5},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":5.5},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":5.5},{"slug":"melbet","book":"MelBet","odds":5.35},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":5.25},{"slug":"coral","book":"coral","odds":5.25},{"slug":"ladbrokes","book":"ladbrokes","odds":5.25},{"slug":"mansionbet","book":"MansionBet","odds":5.1}],"kelly":0.0361,"confidence":0.646,"family":"result"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.3343,"book_prob":0.2092,"edge":0.1251,"shrunk_edge":0.0848,"odds":4.25,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":4.25},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":4.1}],"kelly":0.0324,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.7907,"book_prob":0.6809,"edge":0.1098,"shrunk_edge":0.0745,"odds":1.463,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.463},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.41},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.4},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.4},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.4},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.4}],"kelly":0.0847,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.2869,"book_prob":0.1845,"edge":0.1024,"shrunk_edge":0.0695,"odds":4.8,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":4.8},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":4.6}],"kelly":0.0248,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.846,"book_prob":0.7451,"edge":0.1009,"shrunk_edge":0.0685,"odds":1.311,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.311},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.3},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.3},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.27},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.27}],"kelly":0.0877,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"total_corners","outcome":"under","line":7.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.5158,"book_prob":0.3974,"edge":0.1185,"shrunk_edge":0.0652,"odds":2.38,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","prices":[{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":2.38},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.27},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":2.2}],"kelly":0.0412,"confidence":0.646,"family":"corners"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.2201,"book_prob":0.1322,"edge":0.0879,"shrunk_edge":0.0596,"odds":6.4,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":6.4},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":6.1}],"kelly":0.0189,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2,"push":"full","model_prob":0.9096,"book_prob":0.8241,"edge":0.0855,"shrunk_edge":0.058,"odds":1.188,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.188},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.18},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.18},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.15},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.15}],"kelly":0.1072,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"total_corners","outcome":"under","line":8.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.6306,"book_prob":0.5326,"edge":0.098,"shrunk_edge":0.0539,"odds":1.85,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","prices":[{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.85},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.82},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.65}],"kelly":0.049,"confidence":0.646,"family":"corners"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.9159,"book_prob":0.84,"edge":0.076,"shrunk_edge":0.0515,"odds":1.16,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.16},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.15}],"kelly":0.0977,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"over_under_25","outcome":"under","line":2.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.542,"book_prob":0.4843,"edge":0.0577,"shrunk_edge":0.049,"odds":2.01,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.01},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":2.01},{"slug":"sbo","book":"Sbo","odds":2.01},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.9},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.9}],"kelly":0.0221,"confidence":0.646,"family":"goals"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-2.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.9214,"book_prob":0.8517,"edge":0.0697,"shrunk_edge":0.0473,"odds":1.14,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.14},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.14},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.11}],"kelly":0.0901,"confidence":0.646,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"over_under_35","outcome":"under","line":3.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.756,"book_prob":0.7038,"edge":0.0522,"shrunk_edge":0.0444,"odds":1.38,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","prices":[{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.38},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.36},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.36},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.36}],"kelly":0.0285,"confidence":0.646,"family":"goals"},{"market":"total_corners","outcome":"under","line":9.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.7298,"book_prob":0.6558,"edge":0.074,"shrunk_edge":0.0407,"odds":1.5,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","prices":[{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.5},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.44},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.36}],"kelly":0.0474,"confidence":0.646,"family":"corners"},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"under","line":1.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.2769,"book_prob":0.2342,"edge":0.0427,"shrunk_edge":0.0363,"odds":4.1,"bookmaker":"betfair","prices":[{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":4.1},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":3.83},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.7},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":3.3}],"kelly":0.0109,"confidence":0.646,"family":"goals"},{"market":"1x2","outcome":"DRAW","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.2837,"book_prob":0.2353,"edge":0.0484,"shrunk_edge":0.0357,"odds":4.12,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":4.12},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":4.08},{"slug":"melbet","book":"MelBet","odds":4.05},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":4},{"slug":"coral","book":"coral","odds":4},{"slug":"dafabet","book":"dafabet","odds":4},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":3.95},{"slug":"mansionbet","book":"MansionBet","odds":3.95},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":3.9},{"slug":"ladbrokes","book":"ladbrokes","odds":3.9},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":3.9},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":3.75}],"kelly":0.0135,"confidence":0.646,"family":"result"},{"market":"over_under_05","outcome":"under","line":0.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.0904,"book_prob":0.0546,"edge":0.0357,"shrunk_edge":0.0304,"odds":12,"bookmaker":"betfair","prices":[{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":12},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":12},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":11.6}],"kelly":0.0019,"confidence":0.646,"family":"goals"}],"verdicts":[{"candidate":{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.7803,"book_prob":0.7811,"edge":-0.0008,"shrunk_edge":-0.0006,"odds":1.28,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.28},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":1.26},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":1.26},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.26},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":1.26},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.25}],"kelly":0,"confidence":1,"family":"result"},"lean":false,"narrative":"Milan should edge this one through sheer dominance of the ball. They have bossed possession in 6 of their last 8 matches and turned that pressure into quality openings, making the better chances in all of their last 4 home games. Bologna arrive on a weaker run with only 2 wins from their last 6, missing a big chunk of their goals including a forward who has 1 strike this season. Milan are also depleted in attack and missing key men who usually create and finish, such as their top scorer with 4 goals and 4 assists, plus another forward who chipped in with 3 goals and 1 assist. Yet Bologna lack the firepower to punish them because their own scoring punch is severely blunted. Possession will tell the story in the end.","why":"Milan control the tempo by keeping the ball for long spells and suffocating the visitor's attacks. Bologna miss too many goals to break them down, meaning the hosts will dictate the rhythm without facing heavy pressure at the back. Backing AC Milan draw-no-bet, at odds of 1.29, makes complete sense since the visitors simply cannot hurt them enough to force a defeat. This call only fails if Milan's missing creators leave them entirely unable to convert their possession into a breakthrough.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan are without 8 players, and Adrien Rabiot, Samuel Chukwueze and Diego Moreira are real losses.","evidence":{"count":8,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.533,"combined_importance":0.72,"players":[{"player":"Adrien Rabiot","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0.267,"importance":0.293,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["top_scorer","top_creator","best_performer","in_form"]},{"player":"Samuel Chukwueze","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.202,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["best_performer","chance_creator"]},{"player":"Diego Moreira","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.2,"importance":0.148,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Mario Gila","role":"DEF","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0.067,"importance":0.077,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8,"tags":["best_performer"]},{"player":"Alexis Saelemaekers","role":"MID","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10},{"player":"Matteo Gabbia","role":"DEF","reason":"Tendon Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Pietro Terracciano","role":"GK","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Ruben Loftus-Cheek","role":"MID","reason":"Physical Discomfort","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":2.6}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.25,"combined_importance":0.166,"players":[{"player":"Riccardo Orsolini","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.076,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"Roberto Piccoli","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.063,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Emil Holm","role":"DEF","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.027,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.415,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bologna lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"Bologna","reverse_score":"0-3","reverse_date":1770147900},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan have had 2.9 days' rest.","evidence":{"days_rest":2.9,"matches_in_7_days":2,"matches_in_14_days":4,"load":0.6},"strength":0.375,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-4.5},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":2.2}]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan average 10 points more possession than Bologna, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":57,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.139,"corners":3.6,"corners_per_shot":0.281,"finishing_vs_xg":0.22},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47,"shots":11.4,"xg_per_shot":0.101,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.323,"finishing_vs_xg":0.01},"possession_gap":10},"strength":0.4,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.727,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.273,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AC Milan have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0, and 3.00 a game at home.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.17,"record":"4-1-1","goals_for":2.17,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"WDWWLW","venue_ppg":3},"strength":0.544,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rúben Amorim is 15 games into the job at AC Milan, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Rúben Amorim","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":312,"ppm":1.73,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Raffaele Palladino is 6 games into the job at Bologna, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Raffaele Palladino","matches_in_charge":6,"tenure_days":82,"ppm":1.17,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"pass_reason":null,"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6170,"created_at":"2026-10-22T02:15:16Z","event":{"id":210137,"event_date":"2026-10-28T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":63,"home_team":"AC Milan","away_team_id":66,"away_team":"Bologna","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"markets":{"match_result":{"prob_home":58.5,"prob_draw":24,"prob_away":17.5,"predicted":"H"},"expected_goals":{"home":1.61,"away":1.06},"over_under":{"prob_over_15":75,"prob_over_25":51.5,"prob_over_35":30},"btts":{"prob_yes":52},"score":{"most_likely":"1-1"},"draw_no_bet":{"prob_home":68.6},"corners":{"prob_over_85":54.3,"prob_over_95":42.5,"prob_over_105":30.6}},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":58.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5852,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210137,"event_date":"2026-10-28T17:30:00Z","home_team":"AC Milan","away_team":"Bologna","polymarket_event_id":"1226495","markets":{"1x2":{"home":null,"draw":null,"away":null},"btts":null,"over_under":{"over_15":null,"under_15":null,"over_25":null,"under_25":null,"over_35":null,"under_35":null,"over_45":null,"under_45":null},"halftime":{"home":null,"draw":null,"away":null},"handicap":{"home_minus_15":null,"away_minus_15":null,"home_minus_25":null,"away_minus_25":null}},"liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-25T22:57:25Z"}},"computed_at":1793188706,"report":{"fetched_at":1793232260,"ht":[2,1],"attendance":null,"highlights":[{"kind":"full","title":"AC Milan 2-4 Bologna — Full Highlights","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlvpQ5cVrn0","thumbnail":"https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ZlvpQ5cVrn0/maxresdefault.jpg"}],"events":[{"t":"goal","minute":8,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"S. Mbangula","player_id":2509,"assist":"N. Zortea","kind":"regular","score":[0,1]},{"t":"goal","minute":14,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"A. Cisse","player_id":39443,"assist":null,"kind":"regular","score":[1,1]},{"t":"goal","minute":27,"added":null,"side":"home","player":"A. Cisse","player_id":39443,"assist":"F. Tomori","kind":"regular","score":[2,1]},{"t":"sub","minute":46,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"L. Modrić","in_id":1993,"out":"F. Tomori","out_id":1988},{"t":"sub","minute":58,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"M. Vitík","in_id":3033,"out":"M. Darmian","out_id":4538},{"t":"sub","minute":58,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"C. Pulišić","in_id":3820,"out":"O. Hutchinson","out_id":549},{"t":"sub","minute":58,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"S. Diawara","in_id":29661,"out":"P. Estupiñán","out_id":2003},{"t":"sub","minute":59,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"N. Cambiaghi","in_id":958,"out":"F. Bernardeschi","out_id":961},{"t":"sub","minute":59,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"J. Miranda","in_id":950,"out":"R. Alhassane","out_id":1968},{"t":"goal","minute":60,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"D. Bartesaghi","player_id":1995,"assist":null,"kind":"ownGoal","score":[2,2]},{"t":"goal","minute":62,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"S. Mbangula","player_id":2509,"assist":"J. Miranda","kind":"regular","score":[2,3]},{"t":"sub","minute":63,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"F. Camarda","in_id":1833,"out":"D. Bartesaghi","out_id":1995},{"t":"sub","minute":70,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"T. Heggem","in_id":957,"out":"A. Theate","out_id":1349},{"t":"card","minute":76,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"T. Pobega","player_id":951,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"sub","minute":79,"added":null,"side":"away","in":"E. Helland","in_id":3288,"out":"N. Casale","out_id":948},{"t":"card","minute":84,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"T. Heggem","player_id":957,"card":"yellow","reason":"Foul"},{"t":"goal","minute":86,"added":null,"side":"away","player":"S. Mbangula","player_id":2509,"assist":"J. Odgaard","kind":"regular","score":[2,4]},{"t":"sub","minute":87,"added":null,"side":"home","in":"C. Comotto","in_id":29502,"out":"G. Ramos","out_id":2256}],"players":[{"id":2005,"team_id":63,"minutes":90,"rating":6.9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":1987,"team_id":63,"minutes":90,"rating":5.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":2,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":39443,"team_id":63,"minutes":90,"rating":7.5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":2,"on_target":2,"key_passes":1},{"id":1316,"team_id":63,"minutes":90,"rating":6.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":1990,"team_id":63,"minutes":90,"rating":6.5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":2004,"team_id":63,"minutes":90,"rating":5.8,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":2256,"team_id":63,"minutes":87,"rating":6.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":1995,"team_id":63,"minutes":63,"rating":6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":2003,"team_id":63,"minutes":58,"rating":6.6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":549,"team_id":63,"minutes":58,"rating":5.8,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":1993,"team_id":63,"minutes":45,"rating":6.9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":1988,"team_id":63,"minutes":45,"rating":7,"goals":0,"assists":1,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":29661,"team_id":63,"minutes":32,"rating":5.9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":3820,"team_id":63,"minutes":32,"rating":6.6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":1,"key_passes":0},{"id":1833,"team_id":63,"minutes":27,"rating":6.3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":2,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":29502,"team_id":63,"minutes":3,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":971,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":219077,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":79513,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":4062,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":219074,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":39263,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":79510,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":79511,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":219068,"team_id":63,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":951,"team_id":66,"minutes":90,"rating":6.9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":1,"key_passes":1},{"id":4033,"team_id":66,"minutes":90,"rating":5.9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":1,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":947,"team_id":66,"minutes":90,"rating":7.2,"goals":0,"assists":1,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":2509,"team_id":66,"minutes":90,"rating":9.7,"goals":3,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":4,"on_target":3,"key_passes":1},{"id":966,"team_id":66,"minutes":90,"rating":6.9,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":954,"team_id":66,"minutes":90,"rating":6.5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":2,"on_target":1,"key_passes":2},{"id":948,"team_id":66,"minutes":79,"rating":6.2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":1349,"team_id":66,"minutes":70,"rating":5.8,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":961,"team_id":66,"minutes":59,"rating":6.7,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":2},{"id":1968,"team_id":66,"minutes":59,"rating":6.5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":4538,"team_id":66,"minutes":58,"rating":6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":3033,"team_id":66,"minutes":32,"rating":6.8,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":950,"team_id":66,"minutes":31,"rating":7.2,"goals":0,"assists":1,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":1},{"id":958,"team_id":66,"minutes":31,"rating":6.7,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":1,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":957,"team_id":66,"minutes":20,"rating":6.7,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":1,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":3288,"team_id":66,"minutes":11,"rating":6.7,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":962,"team_id":66,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":60560,"team_id":66,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":22392,"team_id":66,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":2097,"team_id":66,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":142044,"team_id":66,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":4000,"team_id":66,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":3920,"team_id":66,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0},{"id":952,"team_id":66,"minutes":0,"rating":null,"goals":0,"assists":0,"yellow":0,"red":0,"saves":0,"shots":0,"on_target":0,"key_passes":0}],"stats":{"home":{"possession":66,"shots":8,"on_target":3,"corners":2,"fouls":10,"yellow":0,"red":0,"big_chances":4,"passes":671,"pass_pct":88.1,"offsides":0,"saves":2},"away":{"possession":34,"shots":9,"on_target":5,"corners":3,"fouls":16,"yellow":2,"red":0,"big_chances":4,"passes":338,"pass_pct":79.9,"offsides":1,"saves":1}},"lineups":{"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":1987,"name":"Mike Maignan","position":"G","number":16,"captain":true,"starting":true},{"id":1988,"name":"Fikayo Tomori","position":"D","number":23,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":2004,"name":"Koni De Winter","position":"D","number":5,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":1990,"name":"Strahinja Pavlović","position":"D","number":31,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":2003,"name":"Pervis Estupiñán","position":"D","number":2,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":1316,"name":"Yunus Musah","position":"M","number":80,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":2005,"name":"Ardon Jashari","position":"M","number":30,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":549,"name":"Omari Hutchinson","position":"M","number":20,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":39443,"name":"Alphadjo Cisse","position":"M","number":70,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":1995,"name":"Davide Bartesaghi","position":"M","number":33,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":2256,"name":"Gonçalo Ramos","position":"F","number":9,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":1993,"name":"Luka Modrić","position":"M","number":14,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":29661,"name":"Sankhoun Diawara","position":"D","number":13,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":3820,"name":"Christian Pulišić","position":"M","number":11,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":1833,"name":"Francesco Camarda","position":"F","number":73,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":29502,"name":"Christian Comotto","position":"M","number":28,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":79513,"name":"Leo Paul Bouyer","position":"G","number":41,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":4062,"name":"Lorenzo Torriani","position":"G","number":96,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":219074,"name":"El Hadji Malick Cisse","position":"D","number":48,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":39263,"name":"Valeri Vladimirov","position":"D","number":35,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":219077,"name":"Nirash Perera","position":"D","number":47,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":971,"name":"Filippo Terracciano","position":"D","number":42,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":79510,"name":"Lorenzo Ossola","position":"M","number":40,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":79511,"name":"Silvano Vos","position":"M","number":55,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":219068,"name":"Luca Menon","position":"F","number":49,"captain":false,"starting":false}]},"away":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":4033,"name":"Łukasz Skorupski","position":"G","number":1,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":4538,"name":"Matteo Darmian","position":"D","number":36,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":948,"name":"Nicolò Casale","position":"D","number":16,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":1349,"name":"Arthur Theate","position":"D","number":3,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":947,"name":"Nadir Zortea","position":"M","number":20,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":966,"name":"Lewis Ferguson","position":"M","number":19,"captain":true,"starting":true},{"id":951,"name":"Tommaso Pobega","position":"M","number":4,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":1968,"name":"Rahim Alhassane","position":"M","number":23,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":961,"name":"Federico Bernardeschi","position":"F","number":10,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":2509,"name":"Samuel Mbangula","position":"F","number":11,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":954,"name":"Jens Odgaard","position":"F","number":21,"captain":false,"starting":true},{"id":3033,"name":"Martin Vitík","position":"D","number":41,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":950,"name":"Juan Miranda","position":"D","number":33,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":958,"name":"Nicolò Cambiaghi","position":"F","number":28,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":957,"name":"Torbjørn Heggem","position":"D","number":14,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":3288,"name":"Eivind Helland","position":"D","number":5,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":3920,"name":"Ukko Happonen","position":"G","number":72,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":962,"name":"Massimo Pessina","position":"G","number":25,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":952,"name":"Nikola Moro","position":"M","number":6,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":60560,"name":"Marco Libra","position":"M","number":18,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":22392,"name":"Mikel Amondarain","position":"M","number":8,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":2097,"name":"Oussama El Azzouzi","position":"M","number":17,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":142044,"name":"Luca Lo Monaco","position":"M","number":43,"captain":false,"starting":false},{"id":4000,"name":"Artem Dovbyk","position":"F","number":9,"captain":false,"starting":false}]}}},"colors":{"home":"#ca1022","away":"#223d5e"},"venue":{"name":"San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza","city":"Milano","capacity":75817},"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"HOME","line":null,"odds":1.28,"bookmaker":"Novibet","model_prob":0.7803459735357096,"narrative":"Milan should edge this one through sheer dominance of the ball. They have bossed possession in 6 of their last 8 matches and turned that pressure into quality openings, making the better chances in all of their last 4 home games. Bologna arrive on a weaker run with only 2 wins from their last 6, missing a big chunk of their goals including a forward who has 1 strike this season. Milan are also depleted in attack and missing key men who usually create and finish, such as their top scorer with 4 goals and 4 assists, plus another forward who chipped in with 3 goals and 1 assist. Yet Bologna lack the firepower to punish them because their own scoring punch is severely blunted. Possession will tell the story in the end.","why":"Milan control the tempo by keeping the ball for long spells and suffocating the visitor's attacks. Bologna miss too many goals to break them down, meaning the hosts will dictate the rhythm without facing heavy pressure at the back. Backing AC Milan draw-no-bet, at odds of 1.29, makes complete sense since the visitors simply cannot hurt them enough to force a defeat. This call only fails if Milan's missing creators leave them entirely unable to convert their possession into a breakthrough.","result":"LOST","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"missed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":"busier","expected_total":2.5,"actual_total":6,"market":"held","opening_odds":1.29,"closing_odds":1.28,"line":"More happened than we allowed for, which is the risk we named and the one that came in.","decided":[]}}]}