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derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ignazio Abate is 9 games into the job at Torino, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Ignazio Abate","matches_in_charge":9,"tenure_days":70,"ppm":1.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.44,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ivan Jurić has 55 matches in charge at Monza, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Ivan Jurić","matches_in_charge":55,"tenure_days":433,"ppm":1.82,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.4,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Torino come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Monza come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.09375,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.528037098606406 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.027,"defence":-0.039,"effective_matches":12.7,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":0.081,"defence":-0.099,"effective_matches":5.5,"shrunk":0.59},"sample":5.528037098606406,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":10.8,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.349,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.19},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47,"shots":15.9,"xg_per_shot":0.111,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.315,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.01},"possession_gap":5.8},"strength":0.23,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Torino are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Monza are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"15 yellow cards in this referee's last 5 games, where 17 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds. — though 5 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":5,"yellows_per_match":3,"reds_per_match":0.4,"league_yellows_per_match":3.48,"league_reds_per_match":0.186,"yellow_ratio":0.86,"red_ratio":2.15,"sample":5,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 143 km for Monza.","evidence":{"travel_km":143},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":4.7,"temperature_c":14,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1245775549614981},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Monza should find their rhythm against a struggling Torino side. While both teams lost three of their last six games, Monza play better football than their recent results suggest. They failed to win three of their last eight games despite creating the superior openings, and they have been punished for very little lately. They conceded 15 goals in eight matches from chances that usually cost about 9. Torino are missing defensive cover until 10 November, leaving them vulnerable. Even with five players missing in all, Monza possess the form man. Gustavo Varela has eight goals this season, including five goals in the last five games. His clinical movement against a depleted backline is the one thing that decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5560,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":210135,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":78,"home_team":"Torino","away_team_id":1286,"away_team":"Monza","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4406,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210135,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:45:00Z","home_team":"Torino","away_team":"Monza","polymarket_event_id":"1226548","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-22T07:27:19Z"}},"computed_at":1792657896,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#8a221a","away":"#d51137"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino","city":"Turin","capacity":28177},"pulled":[],"published":[]}