{"id":210132,"league_id":4,"league":"Serie A","kickoff":1792867500,"home":"Lazio","away":"Parma","home_id":70,"away_id":74,"venue_id":65,"rank":2,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.635,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.49,0.8],"read":{"text":"Lazio to win","side":"home"},"pass":"Lazio v Parma is one to leave alone. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"Parma are without 4 players, and Pontus Almqvist is a real loss."},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"Lazio have taken 2.33 points a game from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0, and 2.00 a game at home."}],"lambda_home":1.490865235497856,"lambda_away":0.8041342327263035,"corner_rate":8.89,"card_rate":0.181,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.686,"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":2023,"name":"Christos Mandas","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.768},{"id":2020,"name":"Nuno Tavares","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.654},{"id":2024,"name":"Oliver Provstgaard","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.741},{"id":2417,"name":"Danilho Doekhi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.46},{"id":3834,"name":"Manuel Lazzari","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.256},{"id":2026,"name":"Reda Belahyane","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.579},{"id":3773,"name":"Kenneth Taylor","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.743},{"id":1699,"name":"Davide Frattesi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.635},{"id":2016,"name":"Mattia Zaccagni","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.724},{"id":2852,"name":"Andrea Pinamonti","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.271},{"id":2021,"name":"Tijjani Noslin","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.448},{"id":991,"name":"Romano Floriani Mussolini","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.669},{"id":3767,"name":"Josip Šutalo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.452},{"id":2014,"name":"Gustav Isaksen","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.368},{"id":4685,"name":"Nicolò Rovella","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.347},{"id":1768,"name":"Alfonso Pedraza","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.325},{"id":2017,"name":"Fisayo Dele-Bashiru","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.285},{"id":2007,"name":"Adam Marušić","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.245},{"id":2419,"name":"Diogo Leite","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.229},{"id":2010,"name":"Luca Pellegrini","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.137},{"id":8846,"name":"Edoardo Motta","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":4556,"name":"Valerio Farcomeni","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":64141,"name":"Davide Renzetti","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045}],"confidence":0.686},"away":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":2536,"name":"Edoardo Corvi","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.746},{"id":2544,"name":"Emanuele Valeri","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.751},{"id":2538,"name":"Mariano Troilo","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.764},{"id":2824,"name":"Diego Carlos","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.428},{"id":2537,"name":"Enrico Delprato","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.742},{"id":2556,"name":"Christian Ordoñez","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.469},{"id":2542,"name":"Mandela Keita","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.705},{"id":2541,"name":"Adrián Bernabé","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.496},{"id":91520,"name":"Simone Lontani","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.539},{"id":6631,"name":"El Bilal Touré","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.613},{"id":2540,"name":"Sascha Britschgi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.587},{"id":8540,"name":"Dominik Drobnic ","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.403},{"id":8236,"name":"Vincent Sierro","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.382},{"id":968,"name":"Giovanni Fabbian","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.348},{"id":22792,"name":"David Romero","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.323},{"id":4058,"name":"Abdou-Salam Konate","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.31},{"id":8920,"name":"Franco Carboni","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.309},{"id":7782,"name":"Matija Frigan","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.288},{"id":39501,"name":"Giovanni Daffara","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.263},{"id":2539,"name":"Lautaro Valenti","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.248},{"id":64779,"name":"Ousmane Diallo","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.221},{"id":217748,"name":"Djibril Diallo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.196},{"id":2557,"name":"Benjamin Cremaschi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.163}],"confidence":0.75},"unavailable":[{"id":1333,"name":"Albert Guðmundsson","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Shoulder Injury"},{"id":3833,"name":"Danilo Cataldi","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":4452,"name":"Matteo Cancellieri","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Thigh Injury"},{"id":1341,"name":"Hans Nicolussi Caviglia","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Hernia"},{"id":8919,"name":"Nesta Elphege","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Appendicitis"},{"id":2558,"name":"Pontus Almqvist","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Calf Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":2023,"name":"Christos Mandas","side":"home"},{"id":2020,"name":"Nuno Tavares","side":"home"},{"id":2024,"name":"Oliver Provstgaard","side":"home"},{"id":2417,"name":"Danilho Doekhi","side":"home"},{"id":3834,"name":"Manuel Lazzari","side":"home"},{"id":2026,"name":"Reda Belahyane","side":"home"},{"id":3773,"name":"Kenneth Taylor","side":"home"},{"id":1699,"name":"Davide Frattesi","side":"home"},{"id":2016,"name":"Mattia Zaccagni","side":"home"},{"id":2852,"name":"Andrea Pinamonti","side":"home"},{"id":2021,"name":"Tijjani Noslin","side":"home"},{"id":991,"name":"Romano Floriani Mussolini","side":"home"},{"id":3767,"name":"Josip Šutalo","side":"home"},{"id":2014,"name":"Gustav Isaksen","side":"home"},{"id":4685,"name":"Nicolò Rovella","side":"home"},{"id":1768,"name":"Alfonso Pedraza","side":"home"},{"id":2017,"name":"Fisayo Dele-Bashiru","side":"home"},{"id":2007,"name":"Adam Marušić","side":"home"},{"id":2419,"name":"Diogo Leite","side":"home"},{"id":2010,"name":"Luca Pellegrini","side":"home"},{"id":8846,"name":"Edoardo Motta","side":"home"},{"id":4556,"name":"Valerio Farcomeni","side":"home"},{"id":64141,"name":"Davide Renzetti","side":"home"},{"id":39330,"name":"Filipe Bordon","side":"home"},{"id":70984,"name":"Ricardo Bordon","side":"home"},{"id":64140,"name":"Mohamed Fares","side":"home"},{"id":4452,"name":"Matteo Cancellieri","side":"home"},{"id":8451,"name":"Federico Serra","side":"home"},{"id":1333,"name":"Albert Guðmundsson","side":"home"},{"id":2022,"name":"Alessio Furlanetto","side":"home"},{"id":74888,"name":"Bruno Galassi","side":"home"},{"id":205484,"name":"Matteo Morelli","side":"home"},{"id":9031,"name":"Adrian Przyborek","side":"home"},{"id":3833,"name":"Danilo Cataldi","side":"home"},{"id":46859,"name":"Leonardo Di Tommaso","side":"home"},{"id":2536,"name":"Edoardo Corvi","side":"away"},{"id":2544,"name":"Emanuele Valeri","side":"away"},{"id":2538,"name":"Mariano Troilo","side":"away"},{"id":2824,"name":"Diego Carlos","side":"away"},{"id":2537,"name":"Enrico Delprato","side":"away"},{"id":2556,"name":"Christian Ordoñez","side":"away"},{"id":2542,"name":"Mandela Keita","side":"away"},{"id":2541,"name":"Adrián Bernabé","side":"away"},{"id":91520,"name":"Simone Lontani","side":"away"},{"id":6631,"name":"El Bilal Touré","side":"away"},{"id":2540,"name":"Sascha Britschgi","side":"away"},{"id":8540,"name":"Dominik Drobnic","side":"away"},{"id":8236,"name":"Vincent Sierro","side":"away"},{"id":968,"name":"Giovanni Fabbian","side":"away"},{"id":22792,"name":"David Romero","side":"away"},{"id":4058,"name":"Abdou-Salam Konate","side":"away"},{"id":8920,"name":"Franco Carboni","side":"away"},{"id":7782,"name":"Matija Frigan","side":"away"},{"id":39501,"name":"Giovanni Daffara","side":"away"},{"id":2539,"name":"Lautaro Valenti","side":"away"},{"id":64779,"name":"Ousmane Diallo","side":"away"},{"id":217748,"name":"Djibril Diallo","side":"away"},{"id":2557,"name":"Benjamin Cremaschi","side":"away"},{"id":4056,"name":"Abdoulaye Ndiaye","side":"away"},{"id":2558,"name":"Pontus Almqvist","side":"away"},{"id":8919,"name":"Nesta Elphege","side":"away"},{"id":22097,"name":"Thomas de Martis","side":"away"},{"id":29284,"name":"Simone Ghidotti","side":"away"},{"id":53395,"name":"Alessandro Mazzocchi","side":"away"},{"id":1341,"name":"Hans Nicolussi Caviglia","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":1333,"name":"Albert Guðmundsson","side":"home","team":"Lazio","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Shoulder Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":3,"starts":0,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":3,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":2},"standout":{"opponent":"Udinese","kickoff":1788806700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.013,"country":{"team":null,"apps":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":4452,"name":"Matteo Cancellieri","side":"home","team":"Lazio","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Thigh Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":6,"starts":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"AC Milan","kickoff":1789228800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.028,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":3833,"name":"Danilo Cataldi","side":"home","team":"Lazio","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1699,"name":"Davide Frattesi","side":"home","team":"Lazio","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":6,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":{"opponent":"Bologna","kickoff":1787589000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.085,"country":{"team":"Italy","apps":4,"goals":1,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":150,"country":0}},{"id":2016,"name":"Mattia Zaccagni","side":"home","team":"Lazio","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":8,"goals":1,"assists":3,"big_chances":5,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":3,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Venezia","kickoff":1789843500,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_creator","chance_creator","in_form"],"importance":0.099,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":176,"country":0}},{"id":2021,"name":"Tijjani Noslin","side":"home","team":"Lazio","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":3,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Monza","kickoff":1791723600,"goals":0,"assists":2,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["in_form"],"importance":0.08,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":144,"country":0}},{"id":2558,"name":"Pontus Almqvist","side":"away","team":"Parma","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Calf Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":{"apps":6,"starts":0,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Genoa","kickoff":1789909200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.249,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":8919,"name":"Nesta Elphege","side":"away","team":"Parma","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Appendicitis","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":6,"starts":2,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Genoa","kickoff":1789909200,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.071,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":1341,"name":"Hans Nicolussi Caviglia","side":"away","team":"Parma","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"DM","status":"out","reason":"Hernia","expected_return":"2026-11-10","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":4056,"name":"Abdoulaye Ndiaye","side":"away","team":"Parma","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"doubtful","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-24","season":{"apps":1,"starts":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":1,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.001,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":22792,"name":"David Romero","side":"away","team":"Parma","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":1,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":1},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Como","kickoff":1789403400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.194,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}},{"id":91520,"name":"Simone Lontani","side":"away","team":"Parma","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":13,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Catania","kickoff":1786723200,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.365,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":45,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":70,"away":74},"split":{"home":{"above":null,"below":{"w":6,"d":1,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":5},"below":null}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":1896,"name":"Gennaro Gattuso","vs":null},"away":{"id":4109,"name":"Alberto Gilardino","vs":null}},"best_xi":[{"id":2023,"name":"Christos Mandas","team_id":70,"position":"G","matches":7,"goals":0,"assists":0},{"id":2020,"name":"Nuno Tavares","team_id":70,"position":"D","matches":7,"goals":1,"assists":3}],"players":{"1341":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Venezia","fee":6000000,"at":1782864000}},"1699":{"caps":37,"goals":6,"country":"Italy","signed":null},"2023":{"caps":26,"goals":0,"country":"Greece","signed":null},"4056":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Troyes","fee":7350000,"at":1754265600}},"8919":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Grenoble Foot 38","fee":2000000,"at":1769731200}},"22792":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Tigre","fee":7000000,"at":1786665600}}}},"notable":[{"id":27772,"name":"Antonio Raimondo","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":515,"name":"Donyell Malen","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":1892,"name":"Gustavo Varela","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":1994,"name":"Adrien Rabiot","goals":4,"rank":4},{"id":1320,"name":"Daniel Maldini","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":1687,"name":"Lautaro Martínez","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":1688,"name":"Marcus Thuram","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":1311,"name":"Nikola Krstović","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":2831,"name":"Anastasios Douvikas","goals":3,"rank":9},{"id":1843,"name":"Che Adams","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":1699,"name":"Davide Frattesi","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":1713,"name":"Diego Moreira","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":604,"name":"Franco Mastantuono","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":16398,"name":"Giorgi Kvernadze","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":1684,"name":"Hakan Çalhanoğlu","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 8","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":60,"home_wins":29,"draws":16,"away_wins":15,"home_goals":84,"away_goals":60,"avg_total_goals":2.4,"home_win_rate":0.48333333333333334,"away_win_rate":0.25,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Parma","date":"2026-04-04T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Lazio","score":"1-1","event_id":1381,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":74,"home_team_id":70},{"away":"Lazio","date":"2025-12-13T17:00:00+00:00","home":"Parma","score":"0-1","event_id":1213,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":70,"home_team_id":74},{"away":"Parma","date":"2025-04-28T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Lazio","score":"2-2","event_id":307609,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":74,"home_team_id":70},{"away":"Lazio","date":"2024-12-01T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Parma","score":"3-1","event_id":307405,"away_score":1,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":70,"home_team_id":74},{"away":"Parma","date":"2021-05-12T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Lazio","score":"1-0","event_id":325345,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":74,"home_team_id":70},{"away":"Parma","date":"2021-01-21T20:15:00+00:00","home":"Lazio","score":"2-1","event_id":277686,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":74,"home_team_id":70},{"away":"Lazio","date":"2021-01-10T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Parma","score":"0-2","event_id":325152,"away_score":2,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":70,"home_team_id":74},{"away":"Lazio","date":"2020-02-09T17:00:00+00:00","home":"Parma","score":"0-1","event_id":329213,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":70,"home_team_id":74},{"away":"Parma","date":"2019-09-22T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Lazio","score":"2-0","event_id":329023,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":74,"home_team_id":70},{"away":"Parma","date":"2019-03-17T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Lazio","score":"4-1","event_id":337291,"away_score":1,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":74,"home_team_id":70}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":70,"position":2,"played":7,"points":19,"goal_diff":10,"team_name":"Lazio","won":6,"drawn":1,"lost":0,"goals_for":14,"goals_against":4,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":74,"position":19,"played":7,"points":4,"goal_diff":-9,"team_name":"Parma","won":1,"drawn":1,"lost":5,"goals_for":4,"goals_against":13,"group":null},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.33,"record":"4-2-0","goals_for":2.5,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"unbeaten 6","sequence":"DWWDWW","venue_ppg":2},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.67,"record":"1-1-4","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":2,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"LDLWLL","venue_ppg":0}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lazio are without 3 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.143,"combined_importance":0.041,"players":[{"player":"Matteo Cancellieri","role":"ATT","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.071,"importance":0.028,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Albert Guðmundsson","role":"ATT","reason":"Shoulder Injury","goal_share":0.071,"importance":0.013,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Danilo Cataldi","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Parma are without 4 players, and Pontus Almqvist is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.25,"combined_importance":0.321,"players":[{"player":"Pontus Almqvist","role":"ATT","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0.25,"importance":0.249,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Nesta Elphege","role":"ATT","reason":"Appendicitis","goal_share":0,"importance":0.071,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Abdoulaye Ndiaye","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.001,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Hans Nicolussi Caviglia","role":"MID","reason":"Hernia","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":10}]},"strength":0.801,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3.4},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.686,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.314,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":30,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":2,"points":19,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":15,"gap_to_europe":-6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":19,"points":4,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":9},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gennaro Gattuso has 16 matches in charge at Lazio, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Gennaro Gattuso","matches_in_charge":16,"tenure_days":97,"ppm":2.56,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":2.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alberto Gilardino is 4 games into the job at Parma. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Alberto Gilardino","matches_in_charge":4,"tenure_days":72,"ppm":0.75,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":0.78,"delta":null}},"strength":0.233,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":1.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lazio come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Parma come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.014,"defence":0.132,"effective_matches":13.1,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":-0.282,"defence":-0.068,"effective_matches":13.1,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lazio average 8 points more possession than Parma, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54,"shots":13.9,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.425,"finishing_vs_xg":0.54},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":45.6,"shots":10.7,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":4.5,"corners_per_shot":0.422,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.21},"possession_gap":8.4},"strength":0.337,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.8}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lazio have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.54,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Parma are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.21,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"48 yellow cards in this referee's last 16 games, where 56 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds. — though 16 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":16,"yellows_per_match":3,"reds_per_match":0.125,"league_yellows_per_match":3.48,"league_reds_per_match":0.171,"yellow_ratio":0.86,"red_ratio":0.73,"sample":16,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 362 km for Parma.","evidence":{"travel_km":362},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.4,"temperature_c":18,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.10742627214496595},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Lazio's winning run feels fragile, but they should survive against a toothless Parma. While they won four of their last six, Lazio are being opened up. Opponents found the target six or more times in four of their last six outings. Only luck and a busy goalkeeper kept them to six goals conceded in eight matches when their mistakes usually cost ten. Parma cannot take advantage. They were the weaker creative side in six of their last nine and sit in the bottom three. Losing Pontus Almqvist robs them of a large share of their scoring threat, meaning they lack the punch to exploit those leaks. Parma's lack of firepower decides this.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5666,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":210132,"event_date":"2026-10-24T18:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":70,"home_team":"Lazio","away_team_id":74,"away_team":"Parma","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":67.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6756,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210132,"event_date":"2026-10-24T18:45:00Z","home_team":"Lazio","away_team":"Parma","polymarket_event_id":"1226536","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T06:27:17Z"}},"computed_at":1792745317,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#42bff0","away":"#1b3f91"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Olimpico","city":"Rome","capacity":72698},"pulled":[],"published":[]}