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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":30,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":1,"points":19,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":0,"gap_to_safety":15,"gap_to_europe":-6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":4,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":9},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cristian Chivu has 26 matches in charge at Inter, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Cristian Chivu","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":203,"ppm":2.31,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":2.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paolo Vanoli has 19 matches in charge at Fiorentina, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Paolo Vanoli","matches_in_charge":19,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.74,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Inter come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.6875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fiorentina come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.9375,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.436,"defence":0.123,"effective_matches":13,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":0,"defence":-0.055,"effective_matches":13,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Inter average 13 points more possession than Fiorentina, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":59.5,"shots":21.1,"xg_per_shot":0.121,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.265,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.14},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.8,"shots":15.2,"xg_per_shot":0.102,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.302,"finishing_vs_xg":0.03},"possession_gap":12.7},"strength":0.508,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.7}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Inter are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fiorentina are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.03,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"138 yellow cards in this referee's last 37 games, where 129 would be usual in this league, and 6 reds.","evidence":{"matches":37,"yellows_per_match":3.73,"reds_per_match":0.162,"league_yellows_per_match":3.48,"league_reds_per_match":0.171,"yellow_ratio":1.07,"red_ratio":0.95},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":1.6}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 255 km for Fiorentina.","evidence":{"travel_km":255},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3,"temperature_c":15,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.10741754380260214},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Two sides doing the right things underneath the results, and Inter doing a little more of them. Inter have created the better chances in seven of their last nine games. As for the other side, Fiorentina are happy without the ball: in two of the four games they had less of it, they still made the better chances. And they have conceded 18 in their last nine from chances that would usually cost about 12. They have been punished for very little. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6020,"created_at":"2026-10-19T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":210131,"event_date":"2026-10-25T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":77,"home_team":"Inter","away_team_id":68,"away_team":"Fiorentina","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":69.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6979,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210131,"event_date":"2026-10-25T11:30:00Z","home_team":"Inter","away_team":"Fiorentina","polymarket_event_id":"1226533","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T02:27:24Z"}},"computed_at":1792817856,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c2596","away":"#59318a"},"venue":{"name":"San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza","city":"Milano","capacity":75817},"pulled":[],"published":[]}