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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Ismael Koné","role":"MID","reason":"Broken Ankle","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Yeferson Paz","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.9},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.723,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.277,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":30,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":14,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":10,"gap_to_europe":-1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":8,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cesc Fàbregas has 24 matches in charge at Como, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Cesc Fàbregas","matches_in_charge":24,"tenure_days":202,"ppm":1.67,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alberto Aquilani has 17 matches in charge at Sassuolo, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Alberto Aquilani","matches_in_charge":17,"tenure_days":436,"ppm":1.35,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sassuolo come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.760416666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.193,"defence":0.143,"effective_matches":13.1,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":0.023,"defence":-0.061,"effective_matches":12.4,"shrunk":0.39}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Como average 10 points more possession than Sassuolo, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":58.5,"shots":18.4,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.307,"finishing_vs_xg":0.07},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.9,"shots":15.1,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":4.4,"corners_per_shot":0.294,"finishing_vs_xg":0.07},"possession_gap":9.6},"strength":0.383,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Como are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.07,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sassuolo are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.07,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"26 yellow cards in this referee's last 8 games, where 28 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 8 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":8,"yellows_per_match":3.25,"reds_per_match":0.125,"league_yellows_per_match":3.48,"league_reds_per_match":0.171,"yellow_ratio":0.93,"red_ratio":0.73,"sample":8,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.8,"temperature_c":20,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.10742627214496595},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Como should punish a leaky Sassuolo defense. While Sassuolo only lost two of their last six, their results are flattering them. They are getting opened up too easily, conceding six or more shots on target in five of those matches. Conversely, Como are a different side at home, where they carved out the better opportunities in four straight matches. Even though they are missing the playmaker who creates those chances, Anastasios Douvikas is in lethal form. He has six goals this season and has found the net in each of his last three appearances. Douvikas and his clinical finishing will be the difference.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5802,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:33Z","event":{"id":210129,"event_date":"2026-10-24T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":69,"home_team":"Como","away_team_id":61,"away_team":"Sassuolo","league_id":4,"league_name":"Serie A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":62.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6247,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":210129,"event_date":"2026-10-24T13:00:00Z","home_team":"Como","away_team":"Sassuolo","polymarket_event_id":"1226545","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T01:27:19Z"}},"computed_at":1792727193,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#104570","away":"#32ad57"},"venue":{"name":"Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia","city":"Como","capacity":12064},"pulled":[],"published":[]}