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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":28,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":5,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":19,"gap_to_safety":-2,"gap_to_europe":9},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":16,"games_left":28,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":-2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Régis Le Bris has 26 matches in charge at Sunderland, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Régis Le Bris","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.35,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Xabi Alonso has 20 matches in charge at Chelsea, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Xabi Alonso","matches_in_charge":20,"tenure_days":247,"ppm":1.95,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Chelsea come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":8.0625,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":8.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.076,"defence":-0.071,"effective_matches":12.9,"shrunk":0.38},"away":{"attack":0.117,"defence":-0.027,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.1,"shots":15.1,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.365,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.78},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.3,"shots":14.9,"xg_per_shot":0.117,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.391,"finishing_vs_xg":0.59},"possession_gap":0.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sunderland have scored 9 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.78,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Chelsea have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.59,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"155 yellow cards in this referee's last 38 games, where 152 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":38,"yellows_per_match":4.08,"reds_per_match":0.079,"league_yellows_per_match":4.01,"league_reds_per_match":0.175,"yellow_ratio":1.02,"red_ratio":0.45},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 391 km for Chelsea.","evidence":{"travel_km":391},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":18.4,"temperature_c":11,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20967274206900563},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Sunderland can shock Chelsea here because the underlying numbers tell a story the league table completely hides. The hosts are actually creating far more than their recent returns suggest, with their finishing lagging well behind the quality of their looks. Meanwhile, Chelsea sit entirely on hot finishing that flatters their output, a massive problem now that they lose the creator who makes their chances and the top scorer who puts them away. Without that talisman up front and key legs at the back, the visitors will struggle to stop Sunderland from breaking through a leaky defence. Clinical finishing usually deserts teams eventually, and this match will be decided by Sunderland finally cashing in on the sheer volume of chances they generate.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7333,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":209634,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":7,"home_team":"Sunderland","away_team_id":13,"away_team":"Chelsea","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":47.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4748,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209634,"event_date":"2026-11-08T14:00:00Z","home_team":"Sunderland","away_team":"Chelsea","polymarket_event_id":"1288953","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":47153.4744,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.25,"best_ask":0.26,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":-0.03,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.05,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 0 Chelsea FC":0.065,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 1 Chelsea FC":0.1,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 2 Chelsea FC":0.075,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 3 Chelsea FC":0.0445,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 4 Chelsea FC":0.018,"Sunderland AFC 0 - 5 Chelsea FC":0.008,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 0 Chelsea FC":0.065,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 1 Chelsea FC":0.125,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 2 Chelsea FC":0.1,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 3 Chelsea FC":0.0525,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 4 Chelsea FC":0.021,"Sunderland AFC 1 - 5 Chelsea FC":0.009,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 0 Chelsea FC":0.037,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 1 Chelsea FC":0.065,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 2 Chelsea FC":0.065,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 3 Chelsea FC":0.0315,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 4 Chelsea FC":0.0135,"Sunderland AFC 2 - 5 Chelsea FC":0.006,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 0 Chelsea FC":0.015,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 1 Chelsea FC":0.0245,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 2 Chelsea FC":0.0215,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 3 Chelsea FC":0.0135,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 4 Chelsea FC":0.0055,"Sunderland AFC 3 - 5 Chelsea FC":0.01,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 0 Chelsea FC":0.0055,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 1 Chelsea FC":0.008,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 2 Chelsea FC":0.0065,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 3 Chelsea FC":0.0045,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 4 Chelsea FC":0.0035,"Sunderland AFC 4 - 5 Chelsea FC":0.061,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 0 Chelsea FC":0.024,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 1 Chelsea FC":0.0175,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 2 Chelsea FC":0.023,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 3 Chelsea FC":0.05,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 4 Chelsea FC":0.08,"Sunderland AFC 5 - 5 Chelsea FC":0.0395},"updated_at":"2026-11-07T09:57:38Z"}},"computed_at":1794046768,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#eb2639","away":"#0b1984"},"venue":{"name":"Stadium of Light","city":"Sunderland","capacity":48707},"pulled":[],"published":[]}