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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.20967274206900563},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7018,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:22Z","event":{"id":209633,"event_date":"2026-11-07T17:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":15,"home_team":"Nottingham Forest","away_team_id":12,"away_team":"Manchester City","league_id":1,"league_name":"Premier League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":55.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.552,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":209633,"event_date":"2026-11-07T17:30:00Z","home_team":"Nottingham Forest","away_team":"Manchester City","polymarket_event_id":"1284498","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":91783.2295,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.19,"best_ask":0.2,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":0.01,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.085,"Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 0 Manchester City FC":0.051,"Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 1 Manchester City FC":0.1,"Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 2 Manchester City FC":0.085,"Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 3 Manchester City FC":0.055,"Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 4 Manchester City FC":0.026,"Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 5 Manchester City FC":0.01,"Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 0 Manchester City FC":0.0495,"Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 1 Manchester City FC":0.11,"Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 2 Manchester City FC":0.105,"Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 3 Manchester City FC":0.065,"Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 4 Manchester City FC":0.027,"Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 5 Manchester City FC":0.0105,"Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 0 Manchester City FC":0.0255,"Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 1 Manchester City FC":0.0545,"Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 2 Manchester City FC":0.06,"Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 3 Manchester City FC":0.038,"Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 4 Manchester City FC":0.015,"Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 5 Manchester City FC":0.007,"Nottingham Forest FC 3 - 0 Manchester City FC":0.01,"Nottingham Forest FC 3 - 1 Manchester City FC":0.0185,"Nottingham Forest FC 3 - 2 Manchester City FC":0.0195,"Nottingham Forest FC 3 - 3 Manchester City FC":0.0145,"Nottingham Forest FC 3 - 4 Manchester City FC":0.007,"Nottingham Forest FC 3 - 5 Manchester City FC":0.0105,"Nottingham Forest FC 4 - 0 Manchester City FC":0.0035,"Nottingham Forest FC 4 - 1 Manchester City FC":0.005,"Nottingham Forest FC 4 - 2 Manchester City FC":0.0055,"Nottingham Forest FC 4 - 3 Manchester City FC":0.0035,"Nottingham Forest FC 4 - 4 Manchester City FC":0.0035,"Nottingham Forest FC 4 - 5 Manchester City FC":0.1105,"Nottingham Forest FC 5 - 0 Manchester City FC":0.045,"Nottingham Forest FC 5 - 1 Manchester City FC":0.1175,"Nottingham Forest FC 5 - 2 Manchester City FC":0.0345,"Nottingham Forest FC 5 - 3 Manchester City FC":0.085,"Nottingham Forest FC 5 - 4 Manchester City FC":0.1015,"Nottingham Forest FC 5 - 5 Manchester City FC":0.039},"updated_at":"2026-11-06T11:57:30Z"}},"computed_at":1793981319,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Manchester City will dominate possession and dictate the tempo here despite their recent results failing to reflect their true quality. While they have fashioned superior openings in eight of their last ten outings, a frustrating lack of finishing has seen them drop points in three of those fixtures. Without the creative fulcrum who leads their team in assists, they must find new ways to feed their lethal top scorer, who has netted six times in his last five games. Forest struggle to convert their frequent shots into meaningful production. They fire from distance rather than quality areas, meaning their lack of clinical precision is becoming a heavy burden. Control of the middle will ultimately decide this game.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manchester City are without 1 player, and Antoine Semenyo is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":1,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0.1,"combined_importance":0.169,"players":[{"player":"Antoine Semenyo","role":"MID","reason":"Leg Injury","goal_share":0.1,"importance":0.169,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":12,"tags":["top_creator","best_performer","chance_creator"]}]},"strength":0.423,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.745,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.255,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Manchester City average 13 points more possession than Nottingham Forest, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48,"shots":16,"xg_per_shot":0.089,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.297,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.59},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":60.9,"shots":16.3,"xg_per_shot":0.127,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.349,"finishing_vs_xg":0.61},"possession_gap":-12.9},"strength":0.517,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.7}]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#d0122c","away":"#0a3876"},"venue":{"name":"City Ground","city":"Nottingham","capacity":30445},"pulled":[],"published":[]}